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What is your 2022 production number?
Greater than or less that 25,000.
I say less 20k in 2022 would be a successful year.
Greater than or less that 25,000.
I say less 20k in 2022 would be a successful year.
2022 production numbers
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My order number is 48,000 something and I just got my delivery window for October to December 2022. I will be stoked if I can get it by the spring of 23. This is much better than I anticipated.
I just received the same delivery window for a Sept order. You would think the minds at Rivian would be releasing VERY conservative delivery numbers at this point after receiving so much negative feedback on the delays to this point. $100 I see mine by end of year 2022.
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To get to 25,000 vehicles in 2022, Rivian production will need to produce an average of about 70 per day, a rate that would be more than 10 times greater than is presently the case.
While that is potentially feasible, it requires a lot to go right in the next 12 months. This means everything from the supply chain delivering on time, per schedule, to the hiring & training of significant numbers of highly productive new personnel. And all of this will need to be done while the company also builds about 28 EDVs each day, tries to manage the planning and construction of a second production facility and handles the demands of being a public company. A tall order at at any time, and particularly so in the midst of a pandemic.
The odds are not particularly good for everything to fit and work perfectly, and it will be prudent to adjust your expectations accordingly. So the estimated delivery window of "the first half of 2023" tat was in my Rivian email yesterday should be seen as an improbable best case that is likely about 12 months too optimistic.
To paraphrase (and with apologies to) the late H L Menken, "No one ever went broke underestimating Rivian prouction numbers and delivery dates."
While that is potentially feasible, it requires a lot to go right in the next 12 months. This means everything from the supply chain delivering on time, per schedule, to the hiring & training of significant numbers of highly productive new personnel. And all of this will need to be done while the company also builds about 28 EDVs each day, tries to manage the planning and construction of a second production facility and handles the demands of being a public company. A tall order at at any time, and particularly so in the midst of a pandemic.
The odds are not particularly good for everything to fit and work perfectly, and it will be prudent to adjust your expectations accordingly. So the estimated delivery window of "the first half of 2023" tat was in my Rivian email yesterday should be seen as an improbable best case that is likely about 12 months too optimistic.
To paraphrase (and with apologies to) the late H L Menken, "No one ever went broke underestimating Rivian prouction numbers and delivery dates."
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I think it's illustrative to look at Tesla's ramp up, because they faced a lot of same challenges. Some production details at History of Tesla, Inc. - Wikipedia. After 8 quarters they were only making about 7500 cars per quarter. So two years got them to about 125 a day.
That feels like a reasonable roadmap for Rivian, which means they won't be able to meet their 2022 delivery expectations. I really hope I'm wrong, because I want my midyear r1t.
From a single model production aspect, Rivian wants to ramp up in one year what took Tesla 2 1/2. I agree that it seems very unlikely.
R1S Adventure (ordered 10/27/21 Est Del 4Q 23), Red Canyon. Genesis GV 60 Mauna Red (bought 9/10/22)
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To paraphrase Donald Sutherland, "Get outta here with them negative waves!"
Where is order number
Rivian R1T (Adventure - CR, BM, 21", Ordered 10/5/2021, Delivered 6/24/2022), Suburban 2500, VW ID.4
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They don't publish them anymore. There used to be a way to see your order number based on the account profile, but that doesn't work anymore, everything is just random numbers.
Except that Rivian is NOT Tesla. Tesla is established and the undisputed leader. Rivian is struggling big time. just Elon said it would.
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Except Rivian is not Tesla YET. Tesla wasn’t Tesla in its first two years of production either, and although it was a leader, it was because the field had no competition. Rivian has all the makings of a very successful company, and it’s not unreasonable to assume that it’ll be able to match the production-number progression Tesla put up. In fact, because Rivian has the benefit of seeing the stumbles of Tesla, it might fare better. Time will show, I suppose.
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RJ Scaringe is still confident that they can hit 25,000 models produced within the 2022 model year.
"Rivian CEO Robert Scaringe believes that the company can produce 25,000 vehicles in 2022. This 25,000 number includes the R1T, Amazon delivery vans and the R1S.
The new numbers come as Rivian faces increasing supplier disruptions to its Normal, Illinois plant.
Originally, Rivian forecasted that they would produce 50,000 vehicles, but the shortage in semiconductor chips and wire harnesses has forced the company to readjust.
Scaringe had this to say on the supply chain issues when talking to CNBC.
They did not confirm how many Rivian employees have helped out suppliers, nor what suppliers they assisted.
Rivian currently has an order book of around 70,000 for their R1T and R1S vehicles. This does not count the 100,000 Amazon vans also due by the decade’s end.
They are in a good position, but certainly need to find a way to increase production.
As 25,000 vehicles per year is not going to put them into the mainstream, nor the market share they want in a competitive EV market."
"Rivian CEO Robert Scaringe believes that the company can produce 25,000 vehicles in 2022. This 25,000 number includes the R1T, Amazon delivery vans and the R1S.
The new numbers come as Rivian faces increasing supplier disruptions to its Normal, Illinois plant.
Originally, Rivian forecasted that they would produce 50,000 vehicles, but the shortage in semiconductor chips and wire harnesses has forced the company to readjust.
Scaringe had this to say on the supply chain issues when talking to CNBC.
Rivian has taken an interesting step in helping out its suppliers. The company is sending some of their on-site employees to suppliers’ facilities to assist in part production.
They did not confirm how many Rivian employees have helped out suppliers, nor what suppliers they assisted.
Rivian currently has an order book of around 70,000 for their R1T and R1S vehicles. This does not count the 100,000 Amazon vans also due by the decade’s end.
They are in a good position, but certainly need to find a way to increase production.
As 25,000 vehicles per year is not going to put them into the mainstream, nor the market share they want in a competitive EV market."
R1S Adventure (ordered 10/27/21 Est Del 4Q 23), Red Canyon. Genesis GV 60 Mauna Red (bought 9/10/22)
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Who has shipped more electric trucks?
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People are weird when trying to make their points.
Who knows where Rivian will end up but they have a decent start delivering more vehicles in their first quarter and more vehicles in their second quarter than Tesla did in 2012. Granted Tesla had cash issues when they started but Rivian was dealing with the worst pandemic and supply chain issues in the history of the auto industry.
Hopefully people will realize there is room for many manufacturers in this space. In fact the EV transition will only happen with a lot of successful companies. The more companies there are the better for everyone as competition is what keeps prices in check.
You might want to take a screen shot of your response and relook at it in a year. Or just Just pull over to take side of the rode when a long line of CT’s comes screaming by. Lol.
R1S Adventure (ordered 10/27/21 Est Del 4Q 23), Red Canyon. Genesis GV 60 Mauna Red (bought 9/10/22)
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I hope the CT is successful.
I hope Rivian is successful.
I hope ALL EVs are successful.
I'd like to see EV outsell ICE in my lifetime.
That said, which CEO is investing in Dogecoin?
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Tesla fanboys will Tesla fanboy. Rivian has faced endless criticism for their delays and limited production numbers despite doing so during despite the most difficult period for automakers. Tesla is constantly being thrown around as an example of how car manufacturers should be, yet their production of the CT is actually moving backwards. I have nothing against Tesla, and in fact we have a MYP on order to last my wife until her R1S is delivered (hopefully next year), but the damn near religious following that it has is ridiculous and lacks any resemblance of objectivity.
Tesla fanboys. Rivian fanboys. Lucid fanboys. Whatever. `
i’m As critical as they come against Tesla when they screw up and very out spoken against Crazy Elon.
that doesn’t change the fact that Tesla is the leader. King of the hill and 100% ahead of everybody. If Rivian is still around in 5 years I guess we can revisit this but for now. Rivian is no Tesla no matter what Elon says or does.
also… did you happen to see Teslas new report. Perhaps you should look at the numbers.
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You actually think CT will be in production in 12 months? I think that’s a brave bet to make.
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