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Discussion Starter · #1 ·
How long will a new pre order holder have to wait; 2yrs, 3 yrs?

Should Rivian provide an estimated delivery date when a pre order is made?

Do folks who pre order now realize they are in for a very long wait?

Just seems wrong to keep taking pre orders without making sure upfront the pre orderer knows what to expect.
 

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Per Rivian's November 5th filing:


Based on our current production forecast, we expect to fill our preorder backlog of approximately 55,400 R1 vehicles by the end of 2023. Our manufacturing facility in Normal, Illinois (the “Normal Factory”) is currently equipped to produce up to 150,000 vehicles annually (distributed between the R1 platform, which will be used to produce the R1T and R1S, and the RCV platform, which will be used to produce EDVs and other commercial vehicles), when the equipment is operated at full rate and on multiple shifts. The current annual installed capacity for the R1 platform and RCV platform is approximately 65,000 and 85,000 vehicles, respectively. We produced 104 R1T vehicles during the last week of October 2021, representing approximately 8% of our target R1 production rate. Our target is to produce approximately 1,310 R1 vehicles a week, which when annualized (assuming 49.6 working weeks per year), equates to the current installed R1 platform capacity of approximately 65,000 R1 vehicles annually... We expect to reach a vehicle production rate, which, when annualized, would result in us using 100% of the facility’s current installed capacity of up to 150,000 vehicles by late 2023.

Based on the numbers, The reservations through October can be delivered by end of 2023. Since then, they have had another 16,000+ orders. Assuming they can be fully operational by end of '23, The 16,000 orders is approx. 25% of their annual production so for any new orders at this point, you are looking at 2nd quarter 2024. Naturally, this is just based on their current estimates and timing can fluctuate greatly (also assumes high ratio of people converting deposits to purchases).

Since Rivian can't give good estimates at the moment for people ordering the Launch Edition, I don't think they are in any position to give anyone delivery estimates 2+ years out.
 

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Discussion Starter · #3 · (Edited)
Per Rivian's November 5th filing:


Based on our current production forecast, we expect to fill our preorder backlog of approximately 55,400 R1 vehicles by the end of 2023. Our manufacturing facility in Normal, Illinois (the “Normal Factory”) is currently equipped to produce up to 150,000 vehicles annually (distributed between the R1 platform, which will be used to produce the R1T and R1S, and the RCV platform, which will be used to produce EDVs and other commercial vehicles), when the equipment is operated at full rate and on multiple shifts. The current annual installed capacity for the R1 platform and RCV platform is approximately 65,000 and 85,000 vehicles, respectively. We produced 104 R1T vehicles during the last week of October 2021, representing approximately 8% of our target R1 production rate. Our target is to produce approximately 1,310 R1 vehicles a week, which when annualized (assuming 49.6 working weeks per year), equates to the current installed R1 platform capacity of approximately 65,000 R1 vehicles annually... We expect to reach a vehicle production rate, which, when annualized, would result in us using 100% of the facility’s current installed capacity of up to 150,000 vehicles by late 2023.

Based on the numbers, The reservations through October can be delivered by end of 2023. Since then, they have had another 16,000+ orders. Assuming they can be fully operational by end of '23, The 16,000 orders is approx. 25% of their annual production so for any new orders at this point, you are looking at 2nd quarter 2024. Naturally, this is just based on their current estimates and timing can fluctuate greatly (also assumes high ratio of people converting deposits to purchases).

Since Rivian can't give good estimates at the moment for people ordering the Launch Edition, I don't think they are in any position to give anyone delivery estimates 2+ years out.
I think for new pre orders they would be safe in saying “We will deliver ASAP but current production ramp and ongoing supply issues indicate a probable delivery in 2-3 years”.

It took me 2-3 months of hanging out on the Rivian Forums to realize I was in for a much longer wait than expected when I placed my $1,000.00 deposit.

Now that production has slowly started and is experiencing supply issues and startup issues I don’t think a delivery estimate of 2-3 years is risky for someone 70,000+ in line. I also think S-1 statement goals should be taken with a grain of salt. Those goals are optimistic BEST Guesses at the time they are made.

The S-1 goal of 1200 by years end will be missed by more than a few hundred given that only 652 were produced by 12/15. They will miss by 400-500. Not to mention the 266 vehicles undelivered.
 

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Rivian e-mailed me today to say that timeline estimates for non Launch Edition vehicles will be going out before the first of the year. My biggest complaint has been in having no clue where I stand. I need a vehicle and can't wait forever. Despite Rivian being my first choice, I've contemplated cancelling the order solely for this reason as I do have a much better idea of where I stand on the Ford and GMC reservations. Was happy they replied and will be looking forward to finally getting that timeline.
 

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In my opinion, all of these estimates are absolutely moot because 100% of original preorder holders will not stick around until they take delivery. How many Rivian preorder holders also have preorders on the F150 Lightning, Cybertruck, Hummer, Atlis etc? What'll happen if and when Toyota starts taking preorders for their Pickup EV? That said, if Rivian actually permits it, R1T/R1S preorders could be bought out by others, so you're spot in the queue would remain the same. I don't think this latter scenario will continue to play out in the long term however. Increasing availability of BEV trucks from other manufacturers will have an impact and result in late preorders essentially advancing up the queue, rendering today's estimate being completely useless. However, this is just my opinion.
 

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Once other manufacturers actually start putting trucks in real customers driveways... not much will happen with the ques for any manufacturer. Once someone, anyone, starts deliveries... everything will change.
 

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RJ said on the earnings call Dec 16th that an order that day would be delivered in 2023.

I thought he was slipping up and meant 2024 but others seem to think that is correct. I thought the LE preorders would be complete in 2022.

If it's a wait until 2024 not many are going to stick around. I'm putting a deposit on the Silverado now as well. Expecting my R1T early 2023 if it doesn't arrive then silverado it is.
 

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I'm putting a deposit on the Silverado now as well. Expecting my R1T early 2023 if it doesn't arrive then silverado it is.
I think I'm going to hold on for the Toyota Pickup EV but I'll be keeping a watchful eye on the final specs for the Cybertruck.
 

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Discussion Starter · #10 ·
I think it is necessary these days to reserve multiple vehicles in order to insure you get something.

In 3-4 years things will be different. Bugs worked out, more selection and availability.

While I think Rivian should inform new pre orderers of the potential long wait I am a Rivian fan.

Pre order - 3/21/21
R1T/Adventure/Forest Green/Large Pack/Black Interior/Full Spare
Estimated place in line - 40,000th
My estimated date of delivery is end 2023 but more likely mid 2024.

It will be interesting to see how my estimated delivery compares to Rivian’s
due out 26-27th this month.
 

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I would hope you get it before end of 2023. Otherwise I expect rivian stock to tumble.

Looks like Silverado is scheduled for late 23 to early 24. Likely mid 24... time flies but wow what a weird world we live in with such long lead times.

New models were generally are pretty quick to production in the past.
 

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I think it is necessary these days to reserve multiple vehicles in order to insure you get something.

In 3-4 years things will be different. Bugs worked out, more selection and availability.

While I think Rivian should inform new pre orderers of the potential long wait I am a Rivian fan.

Pre order - 3/21/21
R1T/Adventure/Forest Green/Large Pack/Black Interior/Full Spare
Estimated place in line - 40,000th
My estimated date of delivery is end 2023 but more likely mid 2024.

It will be interesting to see how my estimated delivery compares to Rivian’s
due out 26-27th this month.
I hope you get a nice post-Christmas present of an early delivery date!
 

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How long will a new pre order holder have to wait; 2yrs, 3 yrs?

Should Rivian provide an estimated delivery date when a pre order is made?

Do folks who pre order now realize they are in for a very long wait?

Just seems wrong to keep taking pre orders without making sure upfront the pre orderer knows what to expect.
I'm sure that many folks placing orders don't realize that they are in for a lengthy wait for their Rivian. While I'd prefer that Rivian provide at least a ballpark estimate, I understand that they do not want to create expectations that will ultimately not be fulfilled.

The delivery info in the Rivian S-1 should be taken with a grain of salt. While I'm sure Rivian is not fabricating the numbers, they are based on assumptions that may or may not be realistic and in any event, are subject to change given the myriad issues in the real world these days.

The reality is that there is presently a significant wait for many desireable ICE vehicles; e. g., a Kia Telluride ordered today won't be delivered for 10 to 16 months, depending on trim level (though you can shortcut the line at some dealers by paying their so-called "market premium"). The wait for nearly all BEVs is essentially indeterminate, and likely very long. Rivian is not an outlier in not providing delivery information; if you place a pre-orderright now for a Lucid for example, you also do not get delivery info.

In my case, one that I'm sure is similar to many potential Rivian owners, the vehicle I need, the R1S with the Max battery pack, cannot even be configured. Until that model is available on the Rivian configurator, your pre-order date is effectively meaningless. I placed my pre-order in May 2020 and hope to be able to configure my vehicle sometime next year (I have an R1T Max as my placeholder). With the production challenges faced by Rivian, and no meaningful information from the company with respect to the R1S Max, I don't think it's realistic to expect delivery anytime until at least 2023, and more likely 2024.

I don't think it's wrong of Rivian to continue to take deposits but I do think that the company should be much more forthcoming with information about production and delivery.
 

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So you are holding an R1T reservation but no intent of buying one?

Who knows what rivian is going to do with orders like yours. Will your place in line stay when you switch it to the R1S you want? Or will you at the back of the line?
 

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So you are holding an R1T reservation but no intent of buying one?

Who knows what rivian is going to do with orders like yours. Will your place in line stay when you switch it to the R1S you want? Or will you at the back of the line?
According to Rivian, you will keep your priority (although the language is a little ambiguous):

Can I switch vehicle models for my preorder without affecting my priority for delivery?
Yes. If you have an existing preorder but have not configured yet, you’ll be able to switch your model as soon as you create your account.
If you change your mind after you’ve configured, you can switch your model by signing in to your Rivian Account, navigating to the bottom of your preorder detail page and select 'Change Model'. Once confirmed, your preorder will automatically update and you can configure a new vehicle.

If you have a Launch Edition and switch to Adventure or Explorer Package, you will lose the ability to select the Launch Edition.
 
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Doesn't help though if the R1S max pack never materializes.

I guess I'm the skeptical type. I have a feeling there will be no max pack anything, Rivian will have to prove me wrong. But at the very least I don't expect a max pack anything until the current backlog of large packs is complete. IE: Until the current 70k reservations are gone through (either by elimination or sale) there will be no max pack. 2024 at the earliest.
 

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So you are holding an R1T reservation but no intent of buying one?

Who knows what rivian is going to do with orders like yours. Will your place in line stay when you switch it to the R1S you want? Or will you at the back of the line?
I will be towing and need the Max battery. I can either hold an R1S LR reservation with no intent to buy one, or an R1T Max reservation with no intent to buy one of them either. I guess I could just forgo the reservation period, but when I put my deposit in place in May of 2020, Rivian was advertising that a Max battery pack would be available for both models. They're still advertising as much.

I have no idea of what happens to my place in line when I change my order, though Rivian has said that you don't loose your place when/if you revise your order. My guess is that I'm in the latter 1/3 of the original 48,000 pre-order holders but suspect that won't matter very much when the configurator goes live for the R1S Max.

I've been in touch with Rivian CS many times asking when the R1S Max will be available to order, but the answer has always been nebulous, either "soon after deliveries of the R1S begin" or "we hope to make an announcement sometime in the near future." Rivian CS tells me that they've annotated my file to reflect that I will be modifying my order to the R1S Max when that option is presented. I have no idea what the practical effect of that annotation is, but I can't be the only who has a pre-order in place and wants or needs the presently un-reservable R1S Max.
 

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I think it is necessary these days to reserve multiple vehicles in order to insure you get something.

In 3-4 years things will be different. Bugs worked out, more selection and availability.

While I think Rivian should inform new pre orderers of the potential long wait I am a Rivian fan.

Pre order - 3/21/21
R1T/Adventure/Forest Green/Large Pack/Black Interior/Full Spare
Estimated place in line - 40,000th
My estimated date of delivery is end 2023 but more likely mid 2024.

It will be interesting to see how my estimated delivery compares to Rivian’s
due out 26-27th this month.
How did you arrive at your estimates, order # and delivery date. Obviously the delivery is a complete guess on everyone’s part.
 

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How many Rivian preorder holders also have preorders on the F150 Lightning, Cybertruck, Hummer, Atlis etc? What'll happen if and when Toyota starts taking preorders for their Pickup EV?
This exactly.

I'm not new to the EV world, having owned exclusively EV's from 2015-2021. But when I really needed a truck this year and went back to ICE. The Model X with a trailer just wasn't cutting it.

Ford has reached out, so has my local dealer to confirm my allotment. So what happens in 2022 when I've got a Lightning sitting in front of me and I still haven't heard anything from Rivian? That's simple...bye bye Ridgeline. I'm going with the first company to actually get an EV truck in my hands.

That said, the R1T is the truck I want. So the way I see it, there's no problem with driving a Lightning for 2 years while holding the R1T reservation. If it comes out, then I sell it and get into them R1T. The annoyance is not knowing if I'm doing this for 2 years...or 2 months
 
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