Per Rivian's November 5th filing:
Based on our current production forecast, we expect to fill our preorder backlog of approximately 55,400 R1 vehicles by the end of 2023. Our manufacturing facility in Normal, Illinois (the “Normal Factory”) is currently equipped to produce up to 150,000 vehicles annually (distributed between the R1 platform, which will be used to produce the R1T and R1S, and the RCV platform, which will be used to produce EDVs and other commercial vehicles), when the equipment is operated at full rate and on multiple shifts. The current annual installed capacity for the R1 platform and RCV platform is approximately 65,000 and 85,000 vehicles, respectively. We produced 104 R1T vehicles during the last week of October 2021, representing approximately 8% of our target R1 production rate. Our target is to produce approximately 1,310 R1 vehicles a week, which when annualized (assuming 49.6 working weeks per year), equates to the current installed R1 platform capacity of approximately 65,000 R1 vehicles annually... We expect to reach a vehicle production rate, which, when annualized, would result in us using 100% of the facility’s current installed capacity of up to 150,000 vehicles by late 2023.
Based on the numbers, The reservations through October can be delivered by end of 2023. Since then, they have had another 16,000+ orders. Assuming they can be fully operational by end of '23, The 16,000 orders is approx. 25% of their annual production so for any new orders at this point, you are looking at 2nd quarter 2024. Naturally, this is just based on their current estimates and timing can fluctuate greatly (also assumes high ratio of people converting deposits to purchases).
Since Rivian can't give good estimates at the moment for people ordering the Launch Edition, I don't think they are in any position to give anyone delivery estimates 2+ years out.