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Discussion Starter · #1 ·
Per the delivery dates just put out by Rivian, they'll fulfill the first 75,000 orders by the end of 2024.

With 25,000 being delivered in '22, that would mean '23 and '24 would be about the same production level to meet the fulfillment of the price protected orders.

May be Rivian is emphasizing the Amazon delivery truck business and sidelining the consumer EV business.
 

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Definitely not profitable at those sales figures. The 25k this year includes the EDV. I'm assuming they will be producing at about 150 vehicles a day and that's approximately 40k per year. If 10k units are the EDV, then 30k units for the R1 series so 75k by end of 2024 sounds reasonable. I don't think it's profitable especially since many of those orders are going to be at the lower prices. There might be some time before they are profitable especially if you include past losses into account. They are going to lose about $5 billion this year and assuming they make $10k per vehicle (at the new price), they would need to sell 500k units just to make that up. This is some rough back on napkin analysis so there is some major error to be expected in my analysis and it doesn't take into account other sources of revenue they might have. They might be operationally profitable at lower volumes but I don't know what their fixed costs are.

I believe Rivian is giving a very conservative guidance on deliveries to account for production and supply chain disruptions. They will most likely be producing at a rate closer to 200 units a day by 2H23 and will hopefully exceed everyone's expectations. So my Q4 23' R1S delivery window will hopefully be changed to Q3 or at a minimum met.
 

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@EaglesPDX this is purely speculation but I doubt the 75k price protected preorders and Amazon vans are all that will be produced through 2024. I have a feeling decisions had to be made to cut production and maintenance costs and they included delivering to non price protected customers concurrent with earlier price protected orders. The most palatable way to make this happen was to only deliver to areas near a service center which also would decrease warranty issue costs by minimizing mobile service and long distance rows. The pessimist in me also wonders if Rivian is hoping some of the price protected preorders just go away instead of waiting. As an early preorder holder this sucks. As a stock holder this is all probably good news. If this allows Rivian to remain a viable company through its infancy I guess we all win, but it sure doesn’t feel like it right this moment.
 

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Discussion Starter · #4 ·
I doubt the 75k price protected preorders and Amazon vans are all that will be produced through 2024.
That's all they currently projecting to produce with the 75,000 consumer vehicles delivered by 2024.

The pessimist in me also wonders if Rivian is hoping some of the price protected preorders just go away instead of waiting.
I think that is part of Rivian's strategy with the 2024 deliveries. $20k savings (assuming the loss on the price protected is related to the new prices) to Rivian if they can get early customers to NOT to buy Rivians.

They had previously told price protected that it would be a '23 delivery with exact dates coming in October. Now moved to '24 with no dates provided.

Message is definitely "Go away"
 

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Discussion Starter · #5 ·
As a stock holder this is all probably good news. If this allows Rivian to remain a viable company through its infancy I guess we all win
Not sure inability to meet your stated delivery goals by over a year is good for stock. Also not being able to produce more than 75,000 vehicles in three years would normally depress a stock price.

If they are cranking out Amazon delivery vehicles instead of retail vehicles, that might make up for the bad news on retail side.
 

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One thing that’s not being calculated into any of these profit metrics is that with the Inflation Reduction Act there is a rebate for every Amazon Van they build. They are probably doubling their profit just on that rebate (if they are making profit on the Amazon Vans).
 

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One thing that’s not being calculated into any of these profit metrics is that with the Inflation Reduction Act there is a rebate for every Amazon Van they build. They are probably doubling their profit just on that rebate (if they are making profit on the Amazon Vans).
Welcome to the forum. Good point, I guess it's why they seem to have pushed harder on supplying vans to Amazon than passenger cars to customers. Or at least one of the reasons.
 
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