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Discussion Starter · #1 ·
I’ve been thinking about this and would appreciate any comments.

Could Rivian’s success be determined by Tesla?

1: If Tesla opens their Super-Charger Network to Rivian it would be a very big deal to the early success of the RT1.
Most of the county outside of people really interested in the EV world really see charging a vehicle as a big time consuming problem. The Tesla SCN is fantastic and would give easy access with quick and reliable chargers to RT1 owners. Otherwise is a continual horror story with public units. I’m sure some work fine, but I haven’t ready to many success stories about public chargers. I avoid them at all costs. (sorry but I get free SC for life)

2; With the Cybertruck coming soon.. with its over a million pre orders in tow, any delays by Tesla would help Rivian to some degree get a foothold ahead of the coming tidal wave of CT’s. So should we hope for a delay?

and if you don’t know, I have a pre-order for a RT1 max pack. If it ever comes out.
 

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I’ve been thinking about this and would appreciate any comments.

Could Rivian’s success be determined by Tesla?

1: If Tesla opens their Super-Charger Network to Rivian it would be a very big deal to the early success of the RT1.
Most of the county outside of people really interested in the EV world really see charging a vehicle as a big time consuming problem. The Tesla SCN is fantastic and would give easy access with quick and reliable chargers to RT1 owners. Otherwise is a continual horror story with public units. I’m sure some work fine, but I haven’t ready to many success stories about public chargers. I avoid them at all costs. (sorry but I get free SC for life)

2; With the Cybertruck coming soon.. with its over a million pre orders in tow, any delays by Tesla would help Rivian to some degree get a foothold ahead of the coming tidal wave of CT’s. So should we hope for a delay?

and if you don’t know, I have a pre-order for a RT1 max pack. If it ever comes out.
  1. For the next couple of years, I think Tesla will hold the advantage with their network, after that who knows. Given that the CCS chargers are essentially the standard across the rest of the industry, it'll be tough for Tesla to retain it's unique plug. Suppliers such as Electrify America will gain ground simply because it'll get more backing from more companies as more manufacturers produce EVs. Tesla is using CCS in Europe which means they're essentially "testing the waters". It would probably mean ostracizing current Tesla owners in North America in order to convert - not sure that'll happen easily. It may also depend upon adapters. All other car companies could take advantage of Tesla's network, but thus far have avoided it in the US - there is clearly something not said as to why nobody else has agreed to the Tesla standard. Part of the current issue for suppliers like EA is that they've got to deal with an ever expanding myriad of car types that probably require different charging schemes - I'm unsure of all the details. Stability of the charging infrastructure will take time and more investment but it's clear it'll happen.
  2. So, currently in the pickup market you've got Rivian, Tesla, Ford, and GM either in it or looking to get into it in the next 24 months. I think that Rivian has a good chance of stealing some sales from elsewhere - I'm coming from Tesla as I think the R1T and the R1S has greater functionality and usefulness than either the Model X or the CyberTruck. We'll probably find out more details this week since there's probably going to be an announcement on the 26th. The Austin Gigafactory is coming along, but it's nowhere near to being in full production - it's months out at the least. Currently Tesla has targeted the CyberTruck for 2023. Tesla has rarely (read: never) brought anything out ahead of the timeline. Heck, it's because of the delays with the Model X that I'm looking at the R1T to begin with. I am aware that even for Rivian they've delayed the R1T Max Pack until 2023 - I'm looking at that as well. Something odd is that Musk as expressed a 300 mile range as optimum, but he's negated a number of variables in that. I think it'll hurt Tesla to not increase the pack size. I think that they're supposed to put a limit of 150kWh. So far as I understand it, the R1T is slightly narrower/smaller than the traditional manufacturers (Ford F150, etc), which appeals more to me because I'm not looking for a full-on gargantuan work truck but it's still fully capable. It's hard to see how functional the CyberTruck would be compared to those who already are in there. One thing I'll mention is that it's unclear about how well the R1T would do with powering other things like tools, etc but I'm suspecting it may be far more limited than the F150. The biggest part of the puzzle will be service for Rivian. They'll need to build up service outlets fairly quickly, but they're smart to follow the Tesla mobile service model to help grow it quickly.
 

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I don't think that Rivian's success depends on anyone other than Rivian. They are ahead of the competition on an EV pickup truck solution and a full-size SUV solution. Are they reliable? Can they scale? If so they're winners for the foreseeable future in these very important two segments.
 

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Tesla's not going to open up Superchargers to others in the US. Many of them are already overcrowded and will just get worse as they sell more vehicles. Tesla is already profitable, so they don't need the money and doing so would reduce the appeal of their product to customers. Their charging network, at least for now, is one of the big reasons they still dominate the EV market. But, the world is gearing towards EV vehicles. Chargers are popping up all over the place. Even today, in most areas, there are enough EV chargers to satisfy long distance travel and that's just going to continue to improve. Unlike Tesla, all other EV's use the same plug. Therefore, it's not just one start-up company creating a charging network, ALL of them are effectively working together and will surpass Tesla's advantage within a couple of years. By the time most get their Rivian trucks, probably going to be fairly equal. A year after, you'll have better options available for all other EV's than Tesla offers with their network.
 

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Discussion Starter · #5 ·
Tesla's not going to open up Superchargers to others in the US. Many of them are already overcrowded and will just get worse as they sell more vehicles. Tesla is already profitable, so they don't need the money and doing so would reduce the appeal of their product to customers. Their charging network, at least for now, is one of the big reasons they still dominate the EV market. But, the world is gearing towards EV vehicles. Chargers are popping up all over the place. Even today, in most areas, there are enough EV chargers to satisfy long distance travel and that's just going to continue to improve. Unlike Tesla, all other EV's use the same plug. Therefore, it's not just one start-up company creating a charging network, ALL of them are effectively working together and will surpass Tesla's advantage within a couple of years. By the time most get their Rivian trucks, probably going to be fairly equal. A year after, you'll have better options available for all other EV's than Tesla offers with their network.
Should be interesting theater.
 

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Someone please correct me if my facts are outdated, but the last I'd read was that Tesla had opened up their charging network as a test case in a single country (Netherlands).
This doesn't mean that they will either keep it open or open it up in any other jurisdiction.
They have total control over where and when they choose to open it up.
Therefore, Tesla will likely keep a close on eye the market and make changes that are best for Tesla shareholders.
Rivian's success all comes down to their ability to scale production of vehicles and construction of charging stations.
Ford and GM will quickly dwarf Rivian and Tesla's scale of BEV trucks.
If Ford and GM choose to do so, they could also quickly dwarf Rivian's scale of charging stations.
BEV is the future.
I feel that the earnings for the new automotive business model will benefit from new earnings sources such as subscriptions and charging. Especially since many new manufacturer's have forgone the traditional dealership sales model and BEV's require less maintenance when it comes to traditional vehicle components.
There is a ton of money to be made during this paradigm shift. It all comes down to which company can do it fast enough.
I love the design and capabilities of the R1T but I would be betting against Rivian. That said, I am a long term investor and avoid speculative stocks.
 

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Discussion Starter · #7 ·
Someone please correct me if my facts are outdated, but the last I'd read was that Tesla had opened up their charging network as a test case in a single country (Netherlands).
This doesn't mean that they will either keep it open or open it up in any other jurisdiction.
They have total control over where and when they choose to open it up.
Therefore, Tesla will likely keep a close on eye the market and make changes that are best for Tesla shareholders.
Rivian's success all comes down to their ability to scale production of vehicles and construction of charging stations.
Ford and GM will quickly dwarf Rivian and Tesla's scale of BEV trucks.
If Ford and GM choose to do so, they could also quickly dwarf Rivian's scale of charging stations.
BEV is the future.
I feel that the earnings for the new automotive business model will benefit from new earnings sources such as subscriptions and charging. Especially since many new manufacturer's have forgone the traditional dealership sales model and BEV's require less maintenance when it comes to traditional vehicle components.
There is a ton of money to be made during this paradigm shift. It all comes down to which company can do it fast enough.
I love the design and capabilities of the R1T but I would be betting against Rivian. That said, I am a long term investor and avoid speculative stocks.
But are you saying that the success of Rivian is 3rd party public charger systems. So we must depend on them?
 

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But are you saying that the success of Rivian is 3rd party public charger systems. So we must depend on them?
Not entirely, but it will be a factor. Unless Rivian can scale their Adventure Network even faster than Tesla did.
I feel that the Adventure Network is part marketing ploy but that they are very aware of the potential revenue stream.
I feel that the one's to watch are Tesla and GM with their ever diversifying portfolio of energy and transportation solutions in a global marketplace.
Rivian is a brand new vehicle manufacturer (not a new company) currently offering niche vehicles, in a niche market, in a small market on the global scale while competing against legacy companies with proven abilities to scale production.
I love the product but I feel the downward potential is currently being understated due to investor and preorder holder's irrational exuberance.
 

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But are you saying that the success of Rivian is 3rd party public charger systems. So we must depend on them?
ICE vehicles depend on gas stations. That's just the way things work. The infrastructure will get to where it needs to be eventually. IMO the sooner we settle on some standards, the better. I suspect that Tesla will eventually convert their stuff to use CCS like they have in Europe, but not until the availability and quality of CCS chargers has caught up to the SC network. At that point it's good for both them as the company selling electricity through the superchargers, and for the drivers of their vehicles (having more charging locations available.)
 

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Discussion Starter · #11 ·
ICE vehicles depend on gas stations. That's just the way things work. The infrastructure will get to where it needs to be eventually. IMO the sooner we settle on some standards, the better. I suspect that Tesla will eventually convert their stuff to use CCS like they have in Europe, but not until the availability and quality of CCS chargers has caught up to the SC network. At that point it's good for both them as the company selling electricity through the superchargers, and for the drivers of their vehicles (having more charging locations available.)
Right now that a big no. Public chargers are not the answer right now. if Tesla Opens the SCN soon, Rivian could take off.
 

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Right now that a big no. Public chargers are not the answer right now. if Tesla Opens the SCN soon, Rivian could take off.
Because of perception? I don't understand why Rivian's success would be influenced by whether superchargers are available as CCS. Check out plugshare.org, or EA, and you'll see how far the CCS L3 infrastructure has come. Tesla's advantage may be its integration with the car but that's irrelevant in this context.
 

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Discussion Starter · #13 ·
Because of perception? I don't understand why Rivian's success would be influenced by whether superchargers are available as CCS. Check out plugshare.org, or EA, and you'll see how far the CCS L3 infrastructure has come. Tesla's advantage may be its integration with the car but that's irrelevant in this context.
It’s obvious your not an EV owner now. It’s ok. The truth will set you free
 

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Because of perception? I don't understand why Rivian's success would be influenced by whether superchargers are available as CCS. Check out plugshare.org, or EA, and you'll see how far the CCS L3 infrastructure has come. Tesla's advantage may be its integration with the car but that's irrelevant in this context.
It's all in the way that people want to use their vehicles. You wouldn't want to be stranded a major distance from the next charger because there's not enough around right now, nor would you want to have to wait hours because of constrained charging. Until it's clear this issue is getting resolved (for the general public) then adoption will be a tough sell. I looked at EA (EC - Electrify Canada for my location) and it's very limited right now, however, other independent sites are coming online but not nearly the capacity. Charging a 180kWh pack would be slow at 50kWh chargers.
 
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