[EaglesPDX]

Which means all current reservation holders will see delivery in '22-'23. That seems optimistic but I hope they are right. I'd get my R1S in '23, within 18 months.

With a 2/21 reservation, I was expecting a late '24 delivery.

 

[edman007]

It depends on what their ramp rates are. Last year they pretty much said they want to hit 200k/yr as full production, seemingly implying that was 2023.

If they are anywhere close to that it doesn't matter what they build this year, they can build all remaining orders in the last 4-6 months of 2023. I kinda think that's their target, though I'm sure I buy that they'll meet it.

 

[@Boise]

Which means all current reservation holders will see delivery in '22-'23. That seems optimistic but I hope they are right. I'd get my R1S in '23, within 18 months.

With a 2/21 reservation, I was expecting a late '24 delivery.

Where is your information coming from? It makes no sense in regards to the ongoing supply chain issue. There is nothing in the news or from Rivian to suggest parts supply will not be the production limiter for the foreseeable future.

Lucid just announced further production reduction due to parts limitation.

I sincerely hope the supply issues drastically improve in the near term but wishful thinking will not make it so.

Rivian IMHO has done a fantastic job given all of the challenges. Being a new and tiny player producing 10k in 9 months is a testament to their dedication and hard work.

Technically I think Rivian has already delivered “new” reservations in 2022. There will be a lot of “old” or “legacy” reservations unfulfilled going into 2023.

 

[EaglesPDX]

Where is your information coming from?

Rivian.

If you go to website to make a new reservation, that is the statement on delivery.

 

[@Boise]

Rivian.

If you go to website to make a new reservation, that is the statement on delivery.

Ah. Okay

It depends on the definition of “new”. If new means reservations placed post March 2022 post price increase then over a year from now those early new orders will start shipping but I am not sure it means all pre price hike R1s(T/S and committed EDVs) will be delivered.

If parts supply does not improve then 2023 will mirror 2022.

 

[EaglesPDX]

If new means reservations placed post March 2022 post

Correct. Orders placed today would be delivered in 2023.

 

[@Boise]

Hopefully Taiwan will be able to continue supplying chips. If not then we go from bad to a lot worse. China has the hammer and the power to use it.

The US is years away from completion and qualifications of new fabs.

 

[@Boise]

Correct. Orders placed today would be delivered in 2023.

Agree to “late” 2023 Rivian predicts “new” orders will start shipping.

Rivian had to post this in order to provide some guidance to folks looking to place a reservation.

My guess is that unless supply issues improve folks placing an order today will have a 1.5-2 year wait. I also suspect that legacy reservations will not be completed by end of 2023.

No Parts=No R1s.

IF THE SUPPLY CHAIN IMPROVES THEN THERE IS JUSTIFICATION FOR OPTIMISTIC PRODUCTION NUMBERS.

 

[Yossarian]

I'd be surprised if significant numbers of orders placed now deliver in 2023, and agree that Rivian needs to provide that guidance, even if it is likely overly optimistic, to new buyers.

Rivian production of only a more or less standard R1T seems to be approaching 30 per day. If we believe that Rivian will start delivering both the Max and the R1S starting in 2023, that almost certainly means that production numbers will decline somewhat as the new variants are introduced. They will ramp up again, but it will take some time. It will be an incredible accomplishment if Rivian can increase production to 30,000 R1's next year, essentially doubling 2022 numbers. I'm sure that there will be some new orders in the 2023 Rivian production, but likely not all that many. While impressive, a 30,000 unit run will still leave more than a few legacy orders outstanding.

As I always say, I'm happy for this not very optimistic speculation to be proved wrong