[Animalhouse]

Well snap! Or zap as the case maybe

 

[kizamybute']

The difference between a big manufacturer and a start-up. Ordered less than 1 year ago and they've built close to 2,000. I think Rivian is close to the same number, despite starting several months sooner and it being revealed several years prior. Who's likely to get to 150,000 per year first? Hopefully Rivian can ramp things up. But, based on the e-mail yesterday, unless you get a specific configuration, sounds like many will be waiting well into 2024 before getting their trucks. Ford will likely be doing triple the production. Then you have the Chevy and several other SUV's coming to market over the next year. Rivian needs to get moving quickly to be able to take advantage of a limited market like Tesla has done for 9+ years.

 

[O. horridus]

they've built close to 2,000. I think Rivian is close to the same number

Rivian was close to twice that much at the end of Q1. If Rivian is still on track now, a month later (and I have no reason to believe otherwise), their total should be about 5,000 vehicles.

Who's likely to get to 150,000 per year first?

It's not a numbers race. If Ford builds 150,000 Lightnings, then likely they also have to build 150,000 FEWER ICE F-150s, give or take. With the Lightning, their main competition is their own ICE vehicles.

Who's likely to double their market share first? Ford can't do that. Period. Rivian easily can. There's plenty of room in the market for Rivian without significantly impacting Ford sales. These are two extremely different companies addressing different market segments. For example, R1T buyers typically haven't owned a truck before, while F-150 buyers almost certainly have.

But, based on the e-mail yesterday, unless you get a specific configuration, sounds like many will be waiting well into 2024 before getting their trucks.

So a delay of half a year in deliveries of some configuration equates to 2 years in your mind? We won't know the plan until they update the delivery windows, but a lot of Ocean Coast were scheduled for May/June so if this is delayed until "fall" then that's only 6 months. And apparently Rivian will be shipping other configurations instead of the delayed ones, so the total numbers for the year should stay the same.

Then you have the Chevy and several other SUV's coming to market over the next year.

You assume that Chevy and Cybertruck etc. will face none of the constraints that are limiting Ford and Rivian production? If anything, some supply chain issues are going to get WORSE. I would be surprised if Chevy was able to ship the Silverado in 2023 as planned, and if the Cybertruck ever does ship it's not going to be the twice the range / half the cost model that we were told was going to start shipping in mid-2021.

 

[[email protected]]

The difference between a big manufacturer and a start-up. Ordered less than 1 year ago and they've built close to 2,000. I think Rivian is close to the same number, despite starting several months sooner and it being revealed several years prior. Who's likely to get to 150,000 per year first? Hopefully Rivian can ramp things up. But, based on the e-mail yesterday, unless you get a specific configuration, sounds like many will be waiting well into 2024 before getting their trucks. Ford will likely be doing triple the production. Then you have the Chevy and several other SUV's coming to market over the next year. Rivian needs to get moving quickly to be able to take advantage of a limited market like Tesla has done for 9+ years.

I laugh everytime I see "new", "Startup" etc used to describe Rivian. Been around since 2008 or 2009, been building R1Ts and R1Ss since 2017 (there are a ton of test beds) but they have not mass produced till 2021 - doesn't mean they're a start-up.
Dirty_B

 

[O. horridus]

"Startup" has little to do with the newness of the company, at least the way I and many other use the term. They are in the process of launching, not in a steady-state operation with a history of sales and earnings. They just started selling their products a few months ago. They are focused on growth, and their spending will outpace their income for many many years to come - their success depends on how they manage that rapid growth and get to profitability. Their value is in their potential, as opposed to their assets. Calling them an established company is just wrong. Calling them a young company is better, but calling them a startup more accurately reflects the business model. And >90% of the employees were hired after you placed your pre-order, so yes, this is still all pretty new.

 

[kizamybute']

Not trying to offend anyone. I'm a huge Rivian fan. Just wish they could get it figured out quickly to take their fair share of the market that exists. Tesla, was the market. So now, even if there are competitors, Tesla will remain viable. If By June of next year, Ford has 150,000 lightings on the road and Rivian is stuck at 25,000 or so, they're keeping themselves as niche market which is tougher in the long run. Especially with other competitors coming to market in the not too distant future. Rivian's estimates for unique configurations as that they would start those in 2023, that doesn't mean everyone gets their truck in 2023. A large number will be waiting until 2024. Really hoping Rivian can find a way to get the ramp up moving and get a BUNCH of them on the road to get their heels dug in firm!

 

[trevtremaine]

Of those 1800, how many will actually reach customers and exactly how long until customers get their hands on them? Are these true production cars or are they mules/pre-production? 1800 is a start, but I'm going to be curious to hear the next quarter's numbers from the big names of EVs (Rivian, Tesla, VW, Kia/Hyundai) along with the likes of Ford and GM. I'm hopeful that the numbers will increase significantly by the 3rd quarter.

 

[GoldenHVAC]

Rivian stated to the stockholders that they are predicting 26,000 vehicles this year. My guess is this a conservative estimate based on all available data, including batteries, chips, and other things.

So IF Amazon actually gets the 10,000 vans they want, then there will be about 16,000 trucks and SUV's as well. Maybe a few hundred more?

So the 26,000 estimate works out to about 500 - 600 per week. But I would also guess that they would be producing say 400 a week early in the year, ramping up to 600+ a week by the end of the year. Another thing is they might do what Ford and others have done, is park the "Finished" vehicles outside, waiting for a chip or two, before the final delivery can take place.

 

[GoldenHVAC]

Ford is making about 5,000 gas F-150's per week at each plant, in Detroit and Kansas City. At the KC Plant, they are also making the Transit vans and the electric vans. At Detroit they just unveiled the new F-150 electric plant, and showed off the assembly line. My guess is they are taking painted bodies from the gas plant to the electric one, and then do the final assembly there.

I don't think Ford is going to reduce it's gas capacity as they produce the additional bodies for the electric lines. If Ford says they can produce 150,000 electric trucks before July 1, 2023, I have a sense they can do that. I don't think Rivian will have enough batteries, chips or something else to reach 30,000 a year right now. Perhaps in a couple of years.

For now, I hope that Rivian does not burn through all of it's cash before they can start to collect money from the buyers. It takes a lot of cash to keep paying the assembly line workers when there are not enough chips or batteries to keep them busy. Now Rivian wants to increase the prices to meet up with the costs of final assembly.

I guess it would be tough to predict how much each truck will cost, especially 2 years before the first one is off the assembly line.

 

[kizamybute']

Ford is making about 5,000 gas F-150's per week at each plant, in Detroit and Kansas City. At the KC Plant, they are also making the Transit vans and the electric vans. At Detroit they just unveiled the new F-150 electric plant, and showed off the assembly line. My guess is they are taking painted bodies from the gas plant to the electric one, and then do the final assembly there.

I don't think Ford is going to reduce it's gas capacity as they produce the additional bodies for the electric lines. If Ford says they can produce 150,000 electric trucks before July 1, 2023, I have a sense they can do that. I don't think Rivian will have enough batteries, chips or something else to reach 30,000 a year right now. Perhaps in a couple of years.

For now, I hope that Rivian does not burn through all of it's cash before they can start to collect money from the buyers. It takes a lot of cash to keep paying the assembly line workers when there are not enough chips or batteries to keep them busy. Now Rivian wants to increase the prices to meet up with the costs of final assembly.

I guess it would be tough to predict how much each truck will cost, especially 2 years before the first one is off the assembly line.

Maybe not for the reasons you stated, but Ford has already issued a statement that Lightning production will take precedent over the ICE F-150's. They've indicated they have a specific goal for the F-150 Lightning and if there is a chip shortage, they will go to Lightning production FIRST and thus be taken from the F-150 ICE versions. Ford is serious about getting the Lightning into customer hands, even at the expense of ICE F-150's, IF necessary.

 

[sciencegeek]

Maybe not for the reasons you stated, but Ford has already issued a statement that Lightning production will take precedent over the ICE F-150's. They've indicated they have a specific goal for the F-150 Lightning and if there is a chip shortage, they will go to Lightning production FIRST and thus be taken from the F-150 ICE versions. Ford is serious about getting the Lightning into customer hands, even at the expense of ICE F-150's, IF necessary.

How do you evaluate that claim though in light of reality, where F has closed order books already ... they must have known the demand and somehow weren't able to fully prepare for it. I guess I'm confused.

 

[kizamybute']

How do you evaluate that claim though in light of reality, where F has closed order books already ... they must have known the demand and somehow weren't able to fully prepare for it. I guess I'm confused.

Demand well exceeded the number they're capable of producing. I believe they said they're producing 150,000. They took 200,000 orders and had to close them off because they knew they couldn't meet that demand for 2022. Many of those already will be 2023 model year vehicles. Who knows when they'll reopen orders again. Likely once they have an firm grasp on their actual production numbers. Ford, unlike Rivian or Tesla or other small companies, doesn't want pre-order customers waiting 5 years to get their vehicles. They appear to be limiting it to roughly just over one year's worth of production.

 

[GoldenHVAC]

How do you evaluate that claim though in light of reality, where F has closed order books already ... they must have known the demand and somehow weren't able to fully prepare for it. I guess I'm confused.

Ford has reservations for over 150,000 F-150 electric trucks. It looks like from the statements above that Ford will put any available chips into the electric trucks in order to meet the 150,000 electric truck goal, even if it means some lower profit cars might not get the chips they need.

Yet one must also remember that Ford bought into AMD, a smaller chip manufacture, and the 20% share should be good enough to get the company making Ford chips ahead of the other manufactures chips for cars and computers. AMD is in the same buildings that IBM built to make chips back when IBM actually made computer chips.

So I think that in 2 years Ford might be saying "We have enough chips" and with the three new battery plants coming online in the next 3 years, they should be able to supply 120,000 MW of batteries in 2025 model year. Lets hope so!

 

[GoldenHVAC]

SKI to build 21,500 MW of batteries in Georgia, and with Ford build another 125,000 MW of batteries in Kentucky and Tennessee. Ford stated that they are getting batteries from the SKI 21,500 MW battery plant in Georgia.

Other batteries, such as the E-Transit might be coming from the Turkey plant that is building electric Transits for Europe. But I don't know for sure. I think the Mach -E battery might be coming from Europe too, but I am not sure.

Here is a link to the SKI story. The SKI plant in Georgia might also have commitments to sell batteries to other car makers. They should expand the Georgia plant again, perhaps to the 43,000 MW size range? But if it where me, I would want separate buildings. In case of fire, they could keep running the other buildings if they are separated by a mile or so.

Yes these batteries can catch fire, if any water contacts the lithium inside the battery, it can start a fire, even at room temperatures. So making batteries, you MUST make sure they stay dry!

US: SK Innovation Announces Five Battery Plants And 150 GWh/Year

SK Innovation has become Ford's strategic battery supplier in the U.S. and a key partner in the recently announced massive invetments in Tennessee and Kentucky.

insideevs.com

 

[sciencegeek]

Ford has reservations for over 150,000 F-150 electric trucks. It looks like from the statements above that Ford will put any available chips into the electric trucks in order to meet the 150,000 electric truck goal, even if it means some lower profit cars might not get the chips they need.

Yet one must also remember that Ford bought into AMD, a smaller chip manufacture, and the 20% share should be good enough to get the company making Ford chips ahead of the other manufactures chips for cars and computers. AMD is in the same buildings that IBM built to make chips back when IBM actually made computer chips.

So I think that in 2 years Ford might be saying "We have enough chips" and with the three new battery plants coming online in the next 3 years, they should be able to supply 120,000 MW of batteries in 2025 model year. Lets hope so!

That would be amazing and thanks to their investment in Rivian it should trickle down [😅] to us here.

 

[kizamybute']

Ford has reservations for over 150,000 F-150 electric trucks. It looks like from the statements above that Ford will put any available chips into the electric trucks in order to meet the 150,000 electric truck goal, even if it means some lower profit cars might not get the chips they need.

Yet one must also remember that Ford bought into AMD, a smaller chip manufacture, and the 20% share should be good enough to get the company making Ford chips ahead of the other manufactures chips for cars and computers. AMD is in the same buildings that IBM built to make chips back when IBM actually made computer chips.

So I think that in 2 years Ford might be saying "We have enough chips" and with the three new battery plants coming online in the next 3 years, they should be able to supply 120,000 MW of batteries in 2025 model year. Lets hope so!

They actually have 200,000 reservations. Sounds like they were surprised by such a high interest in an EV F-150. They probably would have shut it down sooner, but by the time they realized that they're no chance they can build that many trucks, they reacted as quickly as they could given the surprise. Great to see that much demand. Ford's waiting list is going to be over 2 years. Rivian's has been 4+ years. Everyone is jumping on board. Chevy appears to be next and that thing is pretty darn nice. Certainly nicer than the Ford. But, they at least are gaining experience with the Ultium platform thanks to the Hummer, then the Cadillac Lyric. GM is likely to blow by all three, being that the Silverado is the THIRD Truck or SUV offering, with more coming soon. GM shutdown reservations for the Launch Edition Hummer in literally, a matter of 10 minutes. I think it was only 10,000. All of the other 65,000 reservation holders are on a long waiting list for following versions.

The EV truck market is going to net all of these guys a huge profit margin for a a few years. Hence, why Ford is giving chip priority to the Lightning. Hopefully Rivian can pick up the pace and take advantage of it. Ford certainly is. GM certainly will. Then the Ram is coming. Toyota and Nissan, etc, etc. Sucks to want one NOW. But, at least in 5 to 6 years, there will be a bunch of options available and the customer may finally get some buying power back. I hate this whole pre-order process then wait years for it. Who the heck knows what you want three years from now?? Plus by then, others release something better. I have reservations for all of them. Looks like Ford will be the first to deliver. I will buy it. Rivian should be next. Buying that one too. When the Chevy comes, I'll make a decision as to which of the three I really want and sell the other two. I have a Hummer reservation too. Despite being ready the second they came available, website issues prevented me from being one of the first 10,000. As cool as it is, likely one I'll pass on due to the size. Same thing happened on the Lyric. They shut down reservations for that one in 10 minutes as well. And didn't take any further reservations as they did with the Hummer. Again, website issues prevented me from getting a reservation. That thing looks really nice, especially for $60,000. May reserve one on May 6th when they finally open up orders again.

Figure, just reserve them all so I at least have the option when they do actually come available to purchase. Started this process 4 something years ago with the Rivian and still don't have any one of them!! Friggen annoying!! LOL. But, that will finally change in the next 3 months.

 

[GoldenHVAC]

I was also considering to reserve a E- Transit. I figured if it came in to my favorite dealership, and I said "I don't line it" they would be Really Happy to take it off my hands and sell it for a premium to another customer. From what I heard from a person in the Know at Ford, a lot of dealerships asked employees to be reservation holders, even if they didn't or never will have enough cash to put down a down payment on a new vehicle.

I am guessing that a lot of the 10,000 first in line at Hummer and Lyric are also working for a dealership, and asking for the boss.

I got to ride in a Rivian, it is a Kick! 0-60 in 3 seconds is real! Pushes you back into the seat real!

Yes I know that Ford has WAY more than the 150,000 trucks reserved at this time. I was telling people that Ford could only produce about 15,000 trucks in 2022, and 20,000 in 2023, as those where the early numbers put out by Ford. Now they have increased those numbers dramatically! And I love it! I am hoping that the battery plants that Ford will open in 2025 actually open a bit sooner! And will also hope that Ford will start production of the 2025 Electric F-150 in the middle of 2024. Normally they have the following year out on the showroom floor by mid- September, and I am hoping for a very early start to the 2025 production year!

Yes the 2025 will look different than the 2023 model. However how much different is to be seen. The designers at Ford are not stupid, so it should not look like the Cyber Truck or something strange. Yet it will have a differnt shape to the sheet metal than the 2023. So going down the road, you could tell it apart from a 2023 by looking at it much like the 1999 looks a lot different than the 1998.

Right now they are making the tooling for the 2025 trucks. Think about every metal part of the truck, from fenders to bed sidewall. Each piece has to have a positive and negative mold cut out of a huge block of steel. So when flat sheet metal is put in the press, the press comes down, closing, it will form into a fender, or sidewall of the truck, or something else.

 

[kizamybute']

I was also considering to reserve a E- Transit.

I am hoping that the battery plants that Ford will open in 2025 actually open a bit sooner! And will also hope that Ford will start production of the 2025 Electric F-150 in the middle of 2024. Normally they have the following year out on the showroom floor by mid- September, and I am hoping for a very early start to the 2025 production year!

Yes the 2025 will look different than the 2023 model. However how much different is to be seen. The designers at Ford are not stupid, so it should not look like the Cyber Truck or something strange. Yet it will have a differnt shape to the sheet metal than the 2023. So going down the road, you could tell it apart from a 2023 by looking at it much like the 1999 looks a lot different than the 1998.

I would have considered and E-Transit too, but for some reason, they're giving those things no range. Just as big as an F-150, so not sure why they can't offer them with the same battery size options?

Ford has stated the next EV F-150 will be designed from the ground up as an EV. Certainly they will not go the way of the Cybertruck, but just as Chevy did with the Silverado, it will likely be unique from the standard F-150, but still have a family resemblance. I LOVE the look of the Silverado. I am glad to have gotten my reservation in within the first couple of minutes. Unfortunately, It's a good year and a half out. If they could have promised delivery within the next 8-10 months, I likely would have waited for it. I guess styling is all subjective, but I think they hit a homerun with it.

The Rivian, I wish was a little more aggressively styled and not in love with the front end, which appears to be the love it or hate it aspect from most people. But I do like the rest of it with the sporty off-road oriented styling.

The Ford is boring, being that it looks like every other one of the 1,000,000+ trucks they put on the road every year. For $80,000+, would have been nice if it had its own personality. Had they done a Raptor version of the F-150, I'd have been over the moon for it. But, I'm sure they'll take advantage of the clean sheet of paper for the second generation EV F-150.

At this rate, probably will be buying a new truck every 12-18 months. Certainly getting the Rivian and/or F-150. The Silverado, with what I think is a great looking truck and 400 miles in range will certainly be getting an order. Will drop which ever of the Rivian or F-150 I end up choosing to keep this year. Then, we'll see what Ford comes up with for the Gen2 EV Truck? If it's better than the Silverado, would have to consider it. If they offer a Raptor version, see ya Chevy!! Would likely unload the Silverado for it. But now, am into complete speculation since we have no certain clue what's coming beyond the Silverado.

Never been a huge Dodge fan, but I do like the idea of a plug-in hybrid if it has at least 100 real world miles in EV range. We know that EV trucks are not good tow vehicles yet. Not even close due to the drastic range loss. But, 100 miles in EV range would allow for no use of gas 99% of the time, yet full capability to tow or travel long distance without needing a second truck. Figuring the Dodge won't be an option, but maybe they'll surprise me.

 

[GoldenHVAC]

I would have considered and E-Transit too, but for some reason, they're giving those things no range. Just as big as an F-150, so not sure why they can't offer them with the same battery size options?

Never been a huge Dodge fan, but I do like the idea of a plug-in hybrid if it has at least 100 real world miles in EV range. We know that EV trucks are not good tow vehicles yet. Not even close due to the drastic range loss. But, 100 miles in EV range would allow for no use of gas 99% of the time, yet full capability to tow or travel long distance without needing a second truck. Figuring the Dodge won't be an option, but maybe they'll surprise me.

I also would like the idea of a hybrid heavy duty truck, with a 100 - 150 mile range, so that the truck price will stay reasonable. I wonder why the very popular 3.5L Turbo V6 was never offered in the F-250 series trucks, I think it would power the truck very well, as well as towing up to around 18,000 pounds. Perhaps as a hybrid, they could supplement the 3.5L with a 100 HP motor and really make it a wonderful towing machine! Add a 100 mile range to the truck, and you would have a great vehicle to drive around town, or towing.

Perhaps Ford should produce a 8 speed transmission with a built in 100 HP motor to power the F-250 series trucks? That would really help out in saving fuel, especially if they use the motor for regenerative braking, and bringing the truck up to speed. The transmission could use something like the 4X4 output shaft to input the motor power to the rear of the transmission.

The E-Transit according to Ford is driven primarily by service people, and according to Ford test reports they only drive on average 66 miles per day, so that a 100 mile range is acceptable for most daily commutes, and that 120 max miles is fine for the service van owner. So a lighter weight and less expensive battery can be installed, with no problem charging every night to full. Version 2 of the E-Transit might look exactly the same as the 2023 model year, except I would guess they will have extended range by the year 2025, when the larger battery plants will be online. So perhaps a 250 and 350 mile range for a lot more money than the standard range model.

The Econolines made a noticeable change from the 1974 to the 1975, when a much larger engine compartment allowed the 460" and 351" V8 as a option. Then the next change in body style was not until around 1992. So the vans don't change nearly as often as the pickup body styling.

I guess Ford did not interview shuttle bus drivers when they made this survey, and then based the 120 mile range based on only business owners use of around 66 - 90 miles per day average.

If you think about it, you either fit into one or the other box. If you have a RV, or use the Transit to tow a RV, then you need the gas version to get more than 90 miles from home when you go camping. If you don't have a RV, normally your commute to drop off kids at school, do work, and such is under 90 miles per day. I actually don't know anyone commuting over 90 miles per day X 4 or 5 days a week. Everyone that I know only does 1-4 trips a year in the 100+ mile range.

One problem less talked about is when there is a hurricane, and they evacuate Florida. after going about 200 miles north, the EV drivers will get off the freeway to discover every charger has a car plugged into it, and no place to add miles for their car. Interesting problem, yet to be solved. Perhaps the National Guard will have portable EV chargers run with generators to charge a limited number of cars along the side of the evacuation routes? Or a lot of tow trucks will show up in area?