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Discussion Starter · #1 ·
Greetings!! I made a reservation for an R1S on 11/25/2022, and have been trying to figure out what the current conventional wisdom is on what turn-around times look like currently for the R1S. Is there a current estimate turn time? I’m thinking I will likely not see mine before 2024. Thanks for any wishing you can provide, conventional our otherwise.
VelkySyr
 

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Greetings!! I made a reservation for an R1S on 11/25/2022, and have been trying to figure out what the current conventional wisdom is on what turn-around times look like currently for the R1S. Is there a current estimate turn time? I’m thinking I will likely not see mine before 2024. Thanks for any wishing you can provide, conventional our otherwise.
VelkySyr
Check your account during January, that is the next update to delivery projections.

At this point it is hard to say as there are so many variables. We do know that some people with late 21, early 22 R1T orders have received or are receiving their vehicle.

Best thing you can do is check your account in January/April/July/October those are the months they will update the delivery window estimates.
 

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Discussion Starter · #4 ·
Check your account during January, that is the next update to delivery projections.

At this point it is hard to say as there are so many variables. We do know that some people with late 21, early 22 R1T orders have received or are receiving their vehicle.

Best thing you can do is check your account in January/April/July/October those are the months they will update the delivery window estimates.
Most helpful info!! Many thanks.
 

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Greetings!! I made a reservation for an R1S on 11/25/2022, and have been trying to figure out what the current conventional wisdom is on what turn-around times look like currently for the R1S. Is there a current estimate turn time? I’m thinking I will likely not see mine before 2024. Thanks for any wishing you can provide, conventional our otherwise.
VelkySyr
For what it’s worth, I ordered my R1S a little over a year ago and my delivery “window” is January to December of 2024. Don’t think order date is the end-all-be-all for delivery date, especially for non-launch edition reservation holders.
 

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Discussion Starter · #6 ·
For what it’s worth, I ordered my R1S a little over a year ago and my delivery “window” is January to December of 2024. Don’t think order date is the end-all-be-all for delivery date, especially for non-launch edition reservation holders.
JWS, many thanks. I waited 2.5 years for my LEAF starting in 2009 I think. So this sounds like it’s the same sort of time frame, and the comparison ends there. 🙂
 

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Greetings!! I made a reservation for an R1S on 11/25/2022, and have been trying to figure out what the current conventional wisdom is on what turn-around times look like currently for the R1S. Is there a current estimate turn time? I’m thinking I will likely not see mine before 2024. Thanks for any wishing you can provide, conventional our otherwise.
VelkySyr
When you say reserved, I assume you mean placed a $1000 deposit? For reference, placed my deposit on 8/10/22 and have not even been invited to configure my RS1 yet. Looking back, I wish I had pulled the trigger sooner, but I had a Lucid Air on order and didn’t want to risk simultaneous deliveries.

Good luck!
 

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Rivian Production for 2022:
2,487 in 1st Q
4,467 in 2nd Q
7,363 in 3rd Q

Rivan had made 14,317 vehicles for the first 3 quarters and is wanting to hit 25,000 for 2022. if they make 10,000 for the 4th quarter they will have then made about 24,000 for 2022. (they added a 2nd shift to increase production)
They have 114,000 pre-orders - there is no info on how many are R1T or R1S.
They projecting to make 50,000 a year in 2023. To make this goal they have to produce 12,500 each Quarter or 4,166 per week. (A target of 50,000 would more or less be what Tesla makes for Model S & X annually,)
Assuming that target is hit, that means 100,000 made by the end of 2024.

I'd guess 2nd quarter of 2025. Maybe 1Q if there's no supply shortages and they manage to achieve their production targets.

The 4th Q will give a decent indication of what they can achieve with 2 shifts running. not sure exactly when the 2nd shift started.
 

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Rivan had made 14,317 vehicles for the first 3 quarters and is wanting to hit 25,000 for 2022. if they make 10,000 for the 4th quarter they will have then made about 24,000 for 2022. (they added a 2nd shift to increase production)
The 14,317 includes R1S and EDV, but Rivian didn't produce many of either before Q4.

The 25,000 target includes R1T, R1S and EDV. We don't know exact numbers, but there have been at least 2000 R1S manufactured this quarter, and from press releases we know there are at least 1000 EDV, but it's likely there are many more than that.

Anyway, it seems likely that they will meet their target production of 25,000 for this year.

They projecting to make 50,000 a year in 2023.
Unless I missed something, there has been no 2023 production estimate FROM RIVIAN yet. I don't know who is saying 50,000, but it's not Rivian. My guess is if they can do 25,000 in 10 months of mostly 1 shift, then they can easily do 75,000 in 12 months of 3 shifts in 2023 (they are already hiring for 3rd shift). But that's just a guess and we'll probably have to wait until the Q4 results before we hear a prediction from Rivian. We do know that the plant has a capacity of 150,000-200,000/year, so the big question is are they going to be held back by supply chain constraints. Rivian has stated that by the end of 2023 they should be able to demonstrate a run rate of 150k/year. Whether they can sustain that depends on the supply chain, but I believe this is achievable as they've already demonstrated a run rate of at least 50k/year.

To address the OPs question: Yes you have 100k+ people waiting ahead of you in line, so that rules out 2023. But I would think 2H24 is a quite reasonable expectation for your R1S, with some potential to be sooner. At some point Rivian will give you a real delivery estimate - those have been much more accurate since the reset in June.
 

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Unless I missed something, there has been no 2023 production estimate FROM RIVIAN yet. I don't know who is saying 50,000, but it's not Rivian.
[/QUOTE]

This was quoted by Morgan Stanley, I'm assuming the 50,000 was mentioned during a Quarterly earning call earlier in the year.

"Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas, in a short note Tuesday, wrote that while it’s possible that Rivian’s production will come in “slightly below” its guidance, if it makes “anywhere near” 25,000 vehicles for the year, that bodes well for its plan to make about 50,000 vehicles in 2023. "
 

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Unless I missed something, there has been no 2023 production estimate FROM RIVIAN yet. I don't know who is saying 50,000, but it's not Rivian.
This was quoted by Morgan Stanley, I'm assuming the 50,000 was mentioned during a Quarterly earning call earlier in the year.

"Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas, in a short note Tuesday, wrote that while it’s possible that Rivian’s production will come in “slightly below” its guidance, if it makes “anywhere near” 25,000 vehicles for the year, that bodes well for its plan to make about 50,000 vehicles in 2023. "
[/QUOTE]
Its all over the board I think. Back in July of this year Rivian hinted that they would hit 6 figure production in 2023. Guessing it really will depend on where they are at the end of this month, and how much more juice they think they can squeeze for 2023.

"While meeting its 25,000-unit production goal this year would serve the stock price and consumers well, it’s nowhere near what the plant in Normal, IL, is capable of. Rivian is hoping that 2023 production can reach more than six figures next year. It says that the plant is capable of 150,000 per year but that 200,000 might be possible as well. "

Rivian Almost Doubles Production Numbers In Second Quarter Over The First | Carscoops
 

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This was quoted by Morgan Stanley, I'm assuming the 50,000 was mentioned during a Quarterly earning call earlier in the year.

"Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas, in a short note Tuesday, wrote that while it’s possible that Rivian’s production will come in “slightly below” its guidance, if it makes “anywhere near” 25,000 vehicles for the year, that bodes well for its plan to make about 50,000 vehicles in 2023. "
Its all over the board I think. Back in July of this year Rivian hinted that they would hit 6 figure production in 2023. Guessing it really will depend on where they are at the end of this month, and how much more juice they think they can squeeze for 2023.

"While meeting its 25,000-unit production goal this year would serve the stock price and consumers well, it’s nowhere near what the plant in Normal, IL, is capable of. Rivian is hoping that 2023 production can reach more than six figures next year. It says that the plant is capable of 150,000 per year but that 200,000 might be possible as well. "

Rivian Almost Doubles Production Numbers In Second Quarter Over The First | Carscoops
[/QUOTE]

I assumed the higher 150,000+ production figures pertained to the R2T and R2S models they are planning for Atlanta and the Normal plant would continue to build R1S and R1T at about 50,000 units a year ! There's only so much demand for very high priced vehicles.
 

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I assumed the higher 150,000+ production figures pertained to the R2T and R2S models they are planning for Atlanta and the Normal plant would continue to build R1S and R1T at about 50,000 units a year !
No, absolutely not. The 150,000 number refers to the current production capacity of the Normal factory. The Normal factory is also being upgraded to be capable of 200,000 vehicles/year. I'm not sure if that upgrade has been completed yet, but that's not really relevant because they haven't reached their capacity at Normal. The upgrade is more of a forward-thinking step.

The new plant planned in Georgia has a capacity of 400,000 vehicles/year and will be used for the R2 platform.

The Normal factory has been ramping up and has ALREADY demonstrated a run rate of at least 50,000/year*. Reaching full capacity at the Normal facility by the end of 2023 will not be a problem IF they can maintain a sufficient supply of parts and IF they can hire and train a sufficient number of employees to operate three shifts full time.


*This has been stated explicitly by Rivian, but also it's just simple math. Rivian produced 25k vehicles in 2022, and we know the production rate was very low in Q1 (in fact, was 0 in January 2022 when they were shut down), and was higher in Q2, and was higher in Q3, and will be higher in Q4. The annualized production rate in Q3 was already 30k/year, and in order to reach a production total of 25k for 2022 their current rate MUST be approaching 50k/year RIGHT NOW. And Rivian only recently started running a second shift. Add a third shift and a production rate of 75k/year for 2024 isn't even a guess, it's inevitable unless they are hit by new supply chain constraints in the future.
 

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Placed a reservation for an R1S in August of 2021 and the estimate delivery period is July-September of 2023. Absent any miracle (or massive cancelations), I would be surprised if you were looking at anything prior to second half of 2024/first half of 2025. With that said, this is all speculation at this point; as other mentioned, keep at eye out on your account in January when the next round of updated EDD should come out.
 

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Placed a reservation for an R1S in August of 2021 and the estimate delivery period is July-September of 2023. Absent any miracle (or massive cancelations), I would be surprised if you were looking at anything prior to second half of 2024/first half of 2025. With that said, this is all speculation at this point; as other mentioned, keep at eye out on your account in January when the next round of updated EDD should come out.
I put my order in April 2021 and I'm showing "Processing Estimate" at this point. When did they get you your delivery estimate? Mine originally said January 2023, but they're now saying they won't know the estimate until late January at earliest.
 

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I put my order in April 2021 and I'm showing "Processing Estimate" at this point. When did they get you your delivery estimate? Mine originally said January 2023, but they're now saying they won't know the estimate until late January at earliest.
Have you changed your configuration since October 2022? My understanding is that they are updating the estimates once every three months or so. If you change your configuration in between, you get the "Processing Estimate" message until the next quarterly update.
 
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