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Discussion Starter · #1 ·
I currently own a 2020 Tesla Model 3 Performance with FSD.

What do all you think my chances are of seeing this truck before the end of 2022?

I know anything can happen but I was seeing if any of you have any extra knowledge
 

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Welcome to the club (literally and figuratively). It is hard to say as normal "retail" customers are not receiving vehicles now. It seems only Rivian EEs (beta testers) are getting them. I look at this as a good thing because as they test stuff out in the real world under normal driving conditions, things are going to be discovered, resolved and make more robust before actual paying customers get theirs.

The big mystery is this...can Rivian hold to their build dates, which anyone on this forum will tell you is suspect already. So I could say you could get a truck by the end of 2022, but Rivian may slip that date again.
 

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I currently own a 2020 Tesla Model 3 Performance with FSD.

What do all you think my chances are of seeing this truck before the end of 2022?

I know anything can happen but I was seeing if any of you have any extra knowledge
Not to be a Debbie Downer (and I can't tell if this is a full on troll) but did you mean to type 2022? I find it hard to believe you actually think you might have your truck this year. I ordered mine in Dec 2018. I have a July-September 'window' and have literally zero confidence I'll see the truck in 2022. So much so I'm buying something else for now. I would say your chances of seeing your truck before the end of 2023 are virtually nil. They HOPE to have all preorders out by end of 2023...one must assume you're on the back of that line.
 

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What's the current number of reservations? The last number I saw, two months ago, was over 70,000. If you just placed the order now, I don't think there's any chance you'll get it in 2022 because that would require Rivian to far exceed their estimated 2022 production. I'm optimistic that they'll substantially meet their goals for 2022, but I don't think anyone is betting that they'll double what they intend to deliver.
 

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Discussion Starter · #5 ·
Not to be a Debbie Downer (and I can't tell if this is a full on troll) but did you mean to type 2022? I find it hard to believe you actually think you might have your truck this year. I ordered mine in Dec 2018. I have a July-September 'window' and have literally zero confidence I'll see the truck in 2022. So much so I'm buying something else for now. I would say your chances of seeing your truck before the end of 2023 are virtually nil. They HOPE to have all preorders out by end of 2023...one must assume you're on the back of that line.
Well I can agree with that. Although people placed orders on Model 3 two years out and waited obviously because production wasn’t ramped up. I placed mine and was built in 2 months, obviously because they had ramped up. So I got mine a few months after others that waited two years. The other risk is Rivian may not even make it by then
 

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I received an email from Rivian that my R1s would be delivered “End of 2023” as I am in the Florida Panhandle and geographic location does matter when it comes to delivery expectations. By that time I believe the Atlanta Center should be up and running so that would probably be the closest center to me for awhile.

I ordered Oct 1 2021. I think that anyone ordering now realistically should expect sometime in 2024 depending on where you live.

I waited 1 1/2 years for my 2018 Model 3 BTW. Best car I’ve ever owned and I look forward to a similar experience with my Rivian SUV.
 

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Well I can agree with that. Although people placed orders on Model 3 two years out and waited obviously because production wasn’t ramped up. I placed mine and was built in 2 months, obviously because they had ramped up. So I got mine a few months after others that waited two years. The other risk is Rivian may not even make it by then
Exactly. I was a day 1 Model 3 res and got mine in NJ in March 2018 which was pretty early...but it still meant a wait of 2 years. Others ordered later in 18/19 and had them in months. You're at the bottom of the Rivian ramp though. I'm 38 months waiting and counting. And as you point out, 'survival' will be the motto for Rivian this year. Not Forever or any other mass marketing slogans.
 

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Discussion Starter · #8 ·
I received an email from Rivian that my R1s would be delivered “End of 2023” as I am in the Florida Panhandle and geographic location does matter when it comes to delivery expectations. By that time I believe the Atlanta Center should be up and running so that would probably be the closest center to me for awhile.

I ordered Oct 1 2021. I think that anyone ordering now realistically should expect sometime in 2024 depending on where you live.

I waited 1 1/2 years for my 2018 Model 3 BTW. Best car I’ve ever owned and I look forward to a similar experience with my Rivian SUV.
Thanks for the response. That makes sense. They did just open a Service center about 1 hour from my house here in Michigan. They also have their big office in Canton, Michigan. Fingers crossed
 

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I currently own a 2020 Tesla Model 3 Performance with FSD.

What do all you think my chances are of seeing this truck before the end of 2022?

I know anything can happen but I was seeing if any of you have any extra knowledge
You just made the reservation and placed the $1,000 deposit? Or you actually were able to finalize an order from a reservation you made years ago? Big difference. If you just placed your reservation, you'll be lucky to see it by the end of 2023, not 2022. Most likely, will be 2024 before you can expect delivery. Most of those that placed orders 3+ years ago are not going to receive their vehicles by 2022. They have to get through 71,000+ other vehicles before they get to you. Currently, they're at around 200 per week production rate. It's gonna be a while. Sorry to rain on the parade. Have to be patient these days with the new world we live in, where you have order vehicles 3 years before you get them!
 
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