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Discussion Starter · #1 · (Edited)
Rivians stock decline was due to the announcement of lower production in 2022.

But by March of this year, Rivian said supply chain issues had dramatically cut its production, and it would be able to make only 25,000 vehicles this year. It said it had made only 1,410 to that point in 2022, against 83,000 orders, not counting Amazon.

Assuming the 1410 made were R1's not Amazon trucks per the above. Rivian would have to the R1's production up to 3,500 a month to make the 22,000 this year. If Rivian kept that up, they'd probably get to me at 75000 late in '23 early '24 which is what I was estimating.

Part of the reason for stock decline was the low number of pre-orders at 82,000 vs. Ford's F150 of 200,000 reservations.

Wonder if Rivian changed the bug eyes if that would boost the pre-orders?

Losing $4B a year with $14B cash on hand, should be good to 2025.
 

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The 25,000 vehicles includes 10,000 EDVs. In essence they are targeting 15,000 total R1s for 2022. Keep in mind those numbers are vehicles produced not delivered! The limiter for production is parts supply.

Not sure how much money is headed to GA and to England or to building the in house electric motor and battery assembly or to complete the SCs and the RAN not to mention buying a battery partner. Almost forgot, money to design, develop, test a certify dual motor.

Rivian has a lot of pokers in the fire. If the battery shortage gets real Rivian may have to idle their production lines for significant periods of time.

No Parts = No R1s = No Revenue

IMO a lot has to go right in order for Rivian to DELIVER 13-14K R1s in 2022. Maybe they should use delivery window year!

I don’t think the stock price is related to the number of pre orders but rather the inability to generate revenue ie produce vehicles in meaningful quantities in a reasonable time frame.

Rivian has no control over the supply chain.
 

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Discussion Starter · #3 ·
The 25,000 vehicles includes 10,000 EDVs
Interesting as the wording was the orders and deliver schedules were "not counting Amazon" vans, the 82,000 orders were the R1's vs. the goal of 22,000.

You'd think there'd be some clarity in the March '22 update on how many R1's and how many Amazon to be built in '22.
 

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Interesting as the wording was the orders and deliver schedules were "not counting Amazon" vans, the 82,000 orders were the R1's vs. the goal of 22,000.

You'd think there'd be some clarity in the March '22 update on how many R1's and how many Amazon to be built in '22.
On 3/10 Rivian announced the new production outlook. 25,000 total vehicles which included EDVs. Previous announcements said that Rivian is committed to deliver 10,000 EDVs in 2022. I suppose they can short Amazon and build a more R1s. Of course that depends on the R1 parts issue.

Based on Rivian’s own projections and items in the news I do not see any reason for optimism. The supply is only going to get worse.
 

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Discussion Starter · #5 ·

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The 25,000 vehicles includes 10,000 EDVs. In essence they are targeting 15,000 total R1s for 2022. Keep in mind those numbers are vehicles produced not delivered! The limiter for production is parts supply.

Not sure how much money is headed to GA and to England or to building the in house electric motor and battery assembly or to complete the SCs and the RAN not to mention buying a battery partner. Almost forgot, money to design, develop, test a certify dual motor.

Rivian has a lot of pokers in the fire. If the battery shortage gets real Rivian may have to idle their production lines for significant periods of time.

No Parts = No R1s = No Revenue

IMO a lot has to go right in order for Rivian to DELIVER 13-14K R1s in 2022. Maybe they should use delivery window year!

I don’t think the stock price is related to the number of pre orders but rather the inability to generate revenue ie produce vehicles in meaningful quantities in a reasonable time frame.

Rivian has no control over the supply chain.
Completely agree. It's about revenue now and ... at some point, the deliverable needs to shift to profits and free cash flow.
 

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That's what's not clear. The articles all quote numbers just for the R1's, orders and production.

Rivian said that as of Tuesday, it had produced 1,410 vehicles this year, a small fraction of the 83,000 orders submitted. The company did not say how many vans it had delivered to Amazon this year.

Is there some place where this is clarified?
 

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Discussion Starter · #8 ·
Rivian plans to deliver 10,000 vans to the e-commerce giant this year, McDonough confirmed, while building 25,000 vehicles overall.
From the article on the CFO. That would be 15,000 R1's in '22 and 30,000 to 50,000 R1's in '23. 30,000 if they don't increase the rate from '22 and 50,000 if they can increase the production rate. Though the 25,000 is more than the 22,000 quoted in the other articles which kind of leaves us in foggy bottom. Is the 22,000, a higher goal for the R1's as the other articles suggest or a lower overall goal than the CFO profile suggests?

You'd think Rivian would have made some clear statement that the articles all allude to but don't quote or reference.
 

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Hope somebody asks the straightup question. How many R1's will Rivian produce in '22 and '23.

I'll have a 100k on the Tesla in '23 and 125,000 in '24.
I think 2023 will be a crap shoot for R1 production. IMO the parts supply issue will get worse in 2023. Rivian may well produce fewer R1s in 2023 than they do in 2022. The critical part will be batteries.
 

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Total projected 2022 deliveries is not really in question as can be seen in the March Rivian Shareholder Letter:

Over the course of fiscal year 2022, we plan to remain focused on ramping up
production of both the R1 and RCV lines in Normal, as well as investing in our
technology and product portfolio for future growth. We believe that throughout
2022, the supply chain will be a fundamental limiting factor in our total output
for the Normal Factory and that our manufacturing equipment and processes
would have the ability to produce enough vehicles to deliver over 50,000
vehicles across our R1 and RCV platforms in 2022 if we were not constrained by
our supply chain. Our confidence comes from the demonstrated performance
of our processes and equipment which is in line with our expectations. Despite

this, due to the supply chain constraints currently visible to us, we believe we
will have sufficient parts and materials to produce 25,000 vehicles across our

R1 and RCV platforms in 2022. We continue to work with suppliers and look for
engineered solutions to help us combat any anticipated supply chain issues.


What is in question is the how many RCV's (Rivian Commercial Van, of which the Electric Delivery Van designed in partnership with and for Amazon, is the first) the company plans to build this year. The speculation is that it will be 10,000, which is not an unreasonable guess given that we do know they have a 10-year, 100,000 unit contract in place with Amazon.

It will be interesting to see if the Rivian Q1 report tomorrow revises their March projections. While I think we all hope that the losses are no greater than expected, and that the delivery projections get revised upward, I suspect that both are unlikely. I personally hope that at the least, Rivian confirms that they are on target to hit the March numbers and that they provide some granularity regarding the production mix (i. e., the split between R1 and RCV production).
 

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I chatted with Rivian today and they said the 25,000 number is only for R1 vehicles, and Amazon delivery vans are a whole separate thing. I know we can't always trust Customer Service people with top level info, but that answer was good enough for me, for now.
 

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I chatted with Rivian today and they said the 25,000 number is only for R1 vehicles, and Amazon delivery vans are a whole separate thing. I know we can't always trust Customer Service people with top level info, but that answer was good enough for me, for now.
When someone posts the Shareholder letter showing, in writing, that the 25,000 is the COMBINED number ... yet you go with what "they" say ... just ... wow.
 

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While I haven't had a chance to fully review the Rivian Q1 newsletter, CFO Clair McDonough reaffirmed that the projection for total vehicle production for 2022 remains at 25,000 units during the earnings call yesterday. In my quick scan of the report, I did not see any additional detail of the mix of R1 and RCV. During the Q&A session yesterday [transcript here] however, RJ stated that the production mix is roughly 2/3's R1 and 1/3 EDV. This would equate to R1 production of about 16,700 for 2022.

We learned yesterday that through 9 May, Rivian production was about 5,000 units, with Q1 production accounting for 2,553 of that. Deliveries in Q1 totaled 1,227 units, presumably mostly R1T's. It's not clear why there is such a disconnect between production and delivery, but it would appear that something like 1,300 vehicles are awaiting shipment in Normal. During the Q&A, RJ was pressed on the disconnect and stated flatly that the vehicles are all ready to deliver. Perhaps there is a logistical hurdle that Rivian is having difficulty clearing or perhaps the hold back is deliberate to give their various (19 in total) Delivery Centers more time to get up and running. The CFO hinted during the Q&A that at least part of the inventory build-up is because production is increasing.

Rivian again stated that the bottleneck is their supply chain and that was the reason for the temporary closures of their production line during the quarter. RJ emphasized that they were working closely with their suppliers to fix the problems and that they expect to be able run two shifts in Normal sometime around the middle of the year. Given that Rivian needs to increase production more than 13x from the current 1,227 R1's to get to the 2022 goal of 16,700, they will need that second shift.

Based on the info provided in yesterday's Q1 Earnings Call, I think it's reasonable to be guardedly optimistic about Rivian's prospects. That said, I also believe that the delivery windows that Rivian provided back in December will shift to the right, perhaps substantially, particularly for R1S and R1T Max pre-orders. While I'd love to be proved wrong, I don't think that the R1T Max I have configured that Rivian said would deliver in the first half of 2023 will be in my driveway before early 2024.
 

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Discussion Starter · #17 ·
While I'd love to be proved wrong, I don't think that the R1T Max I have configured that Rivian said would deliver in the first half of 2023 will be in my driveway before early 2024.
In which case those of use with the now medium sized battery, 314 mile range, would see more delivered if earlier buyers wait for the bigger battery. Hang in their boys and girls, the max battery is worth waiting for! Oh guide...
 

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In which case those of use with the now medium sized battery, 314 mile range, would see more delivered if earlier buyers wait for the bigger battery. Hang in their boys and girls, the max battery is worth waiting for! Oh guide...
This is absolutely the case. Rivian has stated that they are trying to standardize their processes and builds, so vehicles that are "standard", e. g., Adventure models with the Long Range 135 kWh battery and Black Mountain interiors, will roll off the line ahead of those with the Max or even the LR if you want the Ocean Coast trim.

I couldn't agree more that the 180 kWh battery pack is worth waiting for; in my case, it's a must have. Because of that, I'm reconcileed with not getting the getting the vehicle I pre-ordered in 2020 until 2024. It would be a pleasant surprise indeed if my Rivian shows up next year, after only a three year wait!
 

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While I haven't had a chance to fully review the Rivian Q1 newsletter, CFO Clair McDonough reaffirmed that the projection for total vehicle production for 2022 remains at 25,000 units during the earnings call yesterday. In my quick scan of the report, I did not see any additional detail of the mix of R1 and RCV. During the Q&A session yesterday [transcript here] however, RJ stated that the production mix is roughly 2/3's R1 and 1/3 EDV. This would equate to R1 production of about 16,700 for 2022.

We learned yesterday that through 9 May, Rivian production was about 5,000 units, with Q1 production accounting for 2,553 of that. Deliveries in Q1 totaled 1,227 units, presumably mostly R1T's. It's not clear why there is such a disconnect between production and delivery, but it would appear that something like 1,300 vehicles are awaiting shipment in Normal. During the Q&A, RJ was pressed on the disconnect and stated flatly that the vehicles are all ready to deliver. Perhaps there is a logistical hurdle that Rivian is having difficulty clearing or perhaps the hold back is deliberate to give their various (19 in total) Delivery Centers more time to get up and running. The CFO hinted during the Q&A that at least part of the inventory build-up is because production is increasing.

Rivian again stated that the bottleneck is their supply chain and that was the reason for the temporary closures of their production line during the quarter. RJ emphasized that they were working closely with their suppliers to fix the problems and that they expect to be able run two shifts in Normal sometime around the middle of the year. Given that Rivian needs to increase production more than 13x from the current 1,227 R1's to get to the 2022 goal of 16,700, they will need that second shift.

Based on the info provided in yesterday's Q1 Earnings Call, I think it's reasonable to be guardedly optimistic about Rivian's prospects. That said, I also believe that the delivery windows that Rivian provided back in December will shift to the right, perhaps substantially, particularly for R1S and R1T Max pre-orders. While I'd love to be proved wrong, I don't think that the R1T Max I have configured that Rivian said would deliver in the first half of 2023 will be in my driveway before early 2024.
Thanks for that. No doubt that increased production will lead to increased inventory while the imbalance gets sorted. However, the difference between 1,227 deliveries versus 2,553 production is eye-opening and not in a good way. Perhaps they don't want to admit that the Delivery Center rollout, which is on them, is yet another sign that they don't have their act together.
 

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Discussion Starter · #20 ·
I couldn't agree more that the 180 kWh battery pack is worth waiting for; in my case, it's a must have.
I was being facetious as I've got a 314 battery. Encouraging those with the 400 battery to wait so I get mine sooner. If I could afford it, I'd add and wait for the 400 mile range but EV's are driving me into vehicle prices that I would have said were CRAZEEEEE! for me. $52k for the Tesla and now $73k for the Rivain. INSANE!!! With apologies to Crazy Eddie.
 
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