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Far from it. I'll reserve judgment, but I've been seeing a lot of promises from Tesla that have not yet materialized. They are the undoubted leader in EVs, but I am yet to see a Model S with 500 miles of range, or even a resemblance of a CT with the promised specs. Until I see actual numbers (at least in the form of YouTube reviews), all of this is vaporware.
 

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Discussion Starter · #5 ·
Far from it. I'll reserve judgment, but I've been seeing a lot of promises from Tesla that have not yet materialized. They are the undoubted leader in EVs, but I am yet to see a Model S with 500 miles of range, or even a resemblance of a CT with the promised specs. Until I see actual numbers (at least in the form of YouTube reviews), all of this is vaporware.
It’s just starting to happen. Give it a little more time and then,.. BOOOOOOM.
 

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It’s just starting to happen. Give it a little more time and then,.. BOOOOOOM.
Time will certainly tell. My understanding is that they produced one-millionth cell, not one-millionth battery. By my calculations that comes out to roughly 213 batteries, which is not very many.

But once they are widely available, I think that’s a great thing for the consumers and the industry. Tide raises all boats. Extra motivation for the competition to work harder.
 

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Discussion Starter · #9 ·
Time will certainly tell. My understanding is that they produced one-millionth cell, not one-millionth battery. By my calculations that comes out to roughly 213 batteries, which is not very many.

But once they are widely available, I think that’s a great thing for the consumers and the industry. Tide raises all boats. Extra motivation for the competition to work harder.
I agree and it’s hard to tell what’s happening right now. My understanding is they have made enough batteries to power 1,000 Model Y’s. It’s just the beginning. Which is why I asked is this game over time. As soon. As they start putting them in every car Tesla makes and if the cost goes down and the range goes up….. well.
 

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Rivian has shipped vehicles containing something like 10 million cells at this point. So ... is 1 million amazingly large or pathetically small? Or are they both just encouraging milestones promising future greatness? Inquiring minds want to know. We don't even know if these new Tesla cells work without exploding ...
 

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Discussion Starter · #12 ·
Rivian has shipped vehicles containing something like 10 million cells at this point. So ... is 1 million amazingly large or pathetically small? Or are they both just encouraging milestones promising future greatness? Inquiring minds want to know. We don't even know if these new Tesla cells work without exploding ...
Lol. Ok. I’m sure Rivian’s are all,over the place. Look there’s one now!!
 

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Given they’ve already said they delivered nearly a thousand, and each one has 7,776 cells (plus one in the flashlight), a thousand trucks would be 7.7 million cells.

I don’t know if they’ve restarted production since the new year shutdown to work out some kinks. Maybe they have, maybe they haven’t. Regardless 10 million isn’t that far off the mark.
 

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"Game over" means what exactly?

It's not exactly game over for all EV manufacturers other than Tesla. It's a growing ecosystem. It's not game over for any player, EVs or batteries. And it's not like Tesla has a lead in battery manufacturing ... it's an uphill battle against very successful and competent players.
 

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I don’t believe 2170 or 4680 cells really matter. The overall architecture and engineering of the motors and other components need to continue to advance. Lucid is able to get a 500 mile range with 2170 cells. 4680 cells are a good step, but solid state cells will be a true game changer.
 

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Tesla is reasonably claiming manufacturing efficiencies and cost reduction, and the lower internal resistance of the new cells could decrease charging times and increase power output. That could give them some competitive edge, for batteries, in the near term and allow them to expand into the lower price point market. But there is no significant increase in energy density with these cells, and that would be the only thing that could really change the game. All currently-known battery chemistries have only a fraction of the energy density of gasoline - the tipping point won't be until the two become roughly comparable. Just think of being able to electrify any vehicle by replacing the gas tank with a battery of the same size, and replacing the gas engine with a smaller, lighter electric engine.
 

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Tesla is reasonably claiming manufacturing efficiencies and cost reduction, and the lower internal resistance of the new cells could decrease charging times and increase power output. That could give them some competitive edge, for batteries, in the near term and allow them to expand into the lower price point market. But there is no significant increase in energy density with these cells, and that would be the only thing that could really change the game. All currently-known battery chemistries have only a fraction of the energy density of gasoline - the tipping point won't be until the two become roughly comparable. Just think of being able to electrify any vehicle by replacing the gas tank with a battery of the same size, and replacing the gas engine with a smaller, lighter electric engine.
Sandy Monroe seems to think in the same space of the Model 3 74 kWh battery with 2170s you can get 130 kWh using 4680s. Not sure if he is accounting for lost service space between the 2 designs for cooling though.
 

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Sandy Monroe seems to think in the same space of the Model 3 74 kWh battery with 2170s you can get 130 kWh using 4680s. Not sure if he is accounting for lost service space between the 2 designs for cooling though.
Yes, there are various factors that help increase the space usage, including the cooling (the previous Tesla design was very inefficient in that aspect, according to Munro), including the (small) decrease in non-functional space occupied by the battery casing (a larger sized battery has less surface area per volume, therefore a smaller percentage of the volume is wasted for the battery "container". (You also get >10% more energy in the same 2 dimensional space just because the batteries are taller). A lot of this is still unknown because vehicles using that battery don't exist yet. But the energy density of the cells themselves is not a big factor. The biggest advantage is that, per kWh, the new Tesla cells may end up costing Tesla about 1/2 as much as the old cells. That is, of course, if they can ramp up production and meet their estimates. Which they are notoriously bad at doing...
 

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