I also have pre-orders for both -- 1 and 1 (R1T Max Pack, CT trimotor). I'll take whichever comes first (or 2nd-to-last).
Until very recently, I would have said that the R1T Max would absolutely beat the CT to driveways by many months, perhaps even a year or more. I'm no longer so sure.
I thought for sure that R1T Max deliveries would start to trickle out mid-next year, and slowly ramp to a few dozen each month by the end of the year. I now suspect that was overly optimistic, and now am guessing - which since Rivian has not given out any information, is all we can do - that 2024 is more likely.
Another thing I'm now unsure about is the configuration of the Max. Given the very slow progress of the larger battery pack relative to the quad-motor R1T, I would not be surprised if we learn in coming months that Rivian has now decided to offer it only on the dual-motor.
In addition to buying more time, that also solves some other problems for Rivian. A two-motor setup will be somewhat lighter than the quad, and could boost range to closer to 450 miles, or at least to something well over the 400+ Rivian now estimates for the Max. A dual-motor Max also potentially gets them off the hook of delivering what are at best loss leaders to pre-March reservation holders. Those who are grandfathered in can either switch to the dual-motor with the Max, or choose to have their deposit returned, similar to what Rivian did with Explore reservation holders.
The price for a dual-motor with a Max will certainly be more than the $81,500 those with existing reservations will pay. Since a dual-motor Max is a new model that was not configurable before March, there is no grandfathering. Max reservation holders either pay for the new model or cancel and get their $1,000 back ($900 for those of us with PBA's in place). Rivian wins either way.
Let me stress that I'm not saying this is going to happen, merely speculating that could. It would be really nice if we had some information on the Max from Rivian, but I suppose that's asking for too much.