[sciencegeek]

Discuss

rivian_letterxtoxshareho

 

[St00k]

Thanks for sharing. More info here:

Looks like Rivian says it can build 150,000 units a year at the current facility in Normal.

Rivian Automotive highlights backlog, investments in shareholders letter | Seeking Alpha

In its recent letter to shareholders, Rivian (RIVN) believes that its strong partnership with Amazon and its initial order of 100K vehicles will enable to work with one of the...

seekingalpha.com

 

[St00k]

Noting super new in there, but a LOT of talk about the R2. RJ also highlights how the current models are very much designed as flagship models and the brand will be moving down-market in the future towards more affordable models. That's exciting!

 

[R99]

Noting super new in there, but a LOT of talk about the R2. RJ also highlights how the current models are very much designed as flagship models and the brand will be moving down-market in the future towards more affordable models. That's exciting!

Yeah they're really hammering this R2 and how they're preparing to handle its launch.

 

[St00k]

I'm encouraged. It's all been a smart plan and, honestly, how I'd ramp up a brand

 

[Riviano]

No mention of the Rivian Adventure Network. Are they still planning to build it as fast and as large as initially promised?

How many fast DC chargers have been built so far and at what locations? Does the R1T show any RAN stations in the map already?

 

[IntimidatorTJ]

Yeah they're really hammering this R2 and how they're preparing to handle its launch.

View attachment 6419

This is very disconcerting.

People have been waiting over 3 years for their R1T (moi) or R1S. Now the focus, and cash, will be thrown at developing the R2 platform - before they have delivered R1T/R1Ss? There is no Max Pack at all, there is no Ocean Coast at all?

Investors, and the board, should raise a gigantic fuss. F O C U S RJ. F O C U S on delivering what you promised 3-4 years ago. If Rivian doesn't deliver 25,000 units by the end of December, investors are going to dump on the stock hard.

In the meantime, IMO, Ford will probably deliver 150,000 EV pickups in the 2023 fiscal year.

 

[St00k]

This is very disconcerting.

People have been waiting over 3 years for their R1T (moi) or R1S. Now the focus, and cash, will be thrown at developing the R2 platform - before they have delivered R1T/R1Ss? There is no Max Pack at all, there is no Ocean Coast at all?

Investors, and the board, should raise a gigantic fuss. F O C U S RJ. F O C U S on delivering what you promised 3-4 years ago. If Rivian doesn't deliver 25,000 units by the end of December, investors are going to dump on the stock hard.

In the meantime, IMO, Ford will probably deliver 150,000 EV pickups in the 2023 fiscal year.

Meh, I think it's the right message for investors. Maybe not for current customers.

RJ is already thinking much further into the future. The plans to get models built and delivered at this point are in the hands of other people. And deliveries seem to be happening all the time.

 

[St00k]

PS. The market seemed to pretty much shrug it off

 

[IntimidatorTJ]

PS. The market seemed to pretty much shrug it off

View attachment 6427

The stock has been beaten down from what, $150 to into the $20s, so yeah news like this is not going to move the needle a whole lot.

Let's see after the end of the 3rd quarter, and what the count of deliveries turns out to be.

Rivian's total production for the quarter ending March 31, 2022, amounted to 2,553 vehicles. During the same period, Rivian delivered 1,227 vehicles.

If Rivian DELIVERS say 3000 vehicles in the 2nd quarter and 6000 in the 3rd quarter, there will be tremendous pressure to deliver close to 15,000 units in the 4th quarter. We shall see how it plays out...

 

[EaglesPDX]

Rivian was smart and lucky with its IPO, getting to stash $17B for the future shields it from the stock market fluctuations for the next 2-3 years.

Our R1T/S's will get built, improved with OTA updates and supported through at least the first year which is when EV's (all new model cars really) tend to have the initial issues.

 

[sciencegeek]

Yeah R2 development is not going to affect R1 production, as long as the money flows, which it should.

 

[O. horridus]

Let's see after the end of the 3rd quarter, and what the count of deliveries turns out to be.

Rivian's total production for the quarter ending March 31, 2022, amounted to 2,553 vehicles. During the same period, Rivian delivered 1,227 vehicles.

Yes, BUT remember they were shut down most of January, and most of that production was done in March. Customers didn't start seeing vehicles until early March. AND remember delivery isn't instantaneous - anything built in the last week or two of March couldn't possibly have been delivered in March. So when you quote this "quarterly" number you have to realize this is mostly edge effect and can't be extrapolated to the full year with a simple times 4.

If Rivian DELIVERS say 3000 vehicles in the 2nd quarter and 6000 in the 3rd quarter, there will be tremendous pressure to deliver close to 15,000 units in the 4th quarter.

Well, already we're well above 7000 R1T produced - that's an additional 5000 produced already in the two months since the previous quarter. So Rivian is currently operating at about 7500/quarter. With two more quarters remaining, it seems clear that they are on track to meet or exceed their yearly estimate, even if there is no further improvement in production rate.

As far as the R2, this is EXACTLY what investors want to see - continued development and growth. The people doing design work aren't the same as the people doing assembly, and now that they have built a team of engineers they need to put them to work on the next models and the next iteration of the current models. There's plenty of money, and building capacity for the future, designing new platforms, and increasing vertical integration will not detract from R1 production. But NOT doing this would be a sure sign that Rivian is a one-hit wonder with no growth potential.

 

[IntimidatorTJ]

Yes, BUT remember they were shut down most of January, and most of that production was done in March. Customers didn't start seeing vehicles until early March. AND remember delivery isn't instantaneous - anything built in the last week or two of March couldn't possibly have been delivered in March. So when you quote this "quarterly" number you have to realize this is mostly edge effect and can't be extrapolated to the full year with a simple times 4.

Well, already we're well above 7000 R1T produced - that's an additional 5000 produced already in the two months since the previous quarter. So Rivian is currently operating at about 7500/quarter. With two more quarters remaining, it seems clear that they are on track to meet or exceed their yearly estimate, even if there is no further improvement in production rate.

As far as the R2, this is EXACTLY what investors want to see - continued development and growth. The people doing design work aren't the same as the people doing assembly, and now that they have built a team of engineers they need to put them to work on the next models and the next iteration of the current models. There's plenty of money, and building capacity for the future, designing new platforms, and increasing vertical integration will not detract from R1 production. But NOT doing this would be a sure sign that Rivian is a one-hit wonder with no growth potential.

We shall see if they can get to 25,000 DELIVERED in 2022.

IMO it is going to be a challenge...no matter what the excuses are.

Honestly, if you go back to 2020, they were planning to deliver a lot more than 25,000 vehicles in 2022.