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Discussion Starter · #1 · (Edited by Moderator)
Very disappointed to find in my email today news that the pricing of the ipo has increased from $57-$62 to $72-$74.
I thought an $80B valuation was quite frothy already but was happy to take it given market circumstances and the prospects of the company in a very optimistic scenario. At nearly $100B it seems like a different story and feels like a plain old money grab at this point. A higher valuation will only hurt them in the long run if there’s any hiccup along the road (and what chance is there that there isint).

This is a $.1T valuation for s pre revenue company with significant execution challenges ahead.

There Is no one more in love with the product that myself but we this point it doesn’t feel like a good investment in the long run (ie. It might still pop in the ipo but doesn’t look like good return prospects in the long term)
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Very disappointed to find in my email today news that the pricing of the ipo has increased from $57-$62 to $72-$74.
I thought an $80B valuation was quite frothy already but was happy to take it given market circumstances and the prospects of the company in a very optimistic scenario. At nearly $100B it seems like a different story and feels like a plain old money grab at this point. A higher valuation will only hurt them in the long run if there’s any hiccup along the road (and what chance is there that there isint).

This is a $.1T valuation for s pre revenue company with significant execution challenges ahead.

There Is no one more in love with the product that myself but we this point it doesn’t feel like a good investment in the long run (ie. It might still pop in the ipo but doesn’t look like good return prospects in the long term)
All IPOs are a money grab, that is the one of primary purposes of going public.

Once the stock is trading they don't receive additional money directly from the share price. Obviously they want it to keep gaining in value, but the stock going from 60 to 70 after the IPO doesn't help them directly. If Morgan Stanley and the big investors think the IPO can support a 70 dollar starting price then it makes sense for them to price it there to maximize the funding.

If the valuation feels too high to you its ok for you not to invest and hope it goes down at the start.
 

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From $57 to now possibly $74 is almost a 30% increase in IPO stock price. The surprises just keep coming from Rivian. What's next another revision tomorrow up to $90-$95 just before 6PM? At this point I'm starting to reconsider my participation in the DSP.
 

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I'm starting to lose faith in this company. After being told a price, went through the hassle of opening a Morgan Stanley account, all the endless account verifications necessary and so forth, now, the day before, they jack up the price around 25%.

Tesla was incredible when they started. Then they grew and grew and grew and now, as a company, their heads have grown too big. Customer service is horrible, their attitude sucks. But, for now at least, they're still selling more cars than they can build, so nothing will change. Rivian has very much shown that they're following Tesla's blueprints, yet trying to do so as an advanced company several years into the process rather than a startup.

Their interface in the truck is effectively a carbon copy of Tesla's, yet a dated version of it. They're trying to open at over an $80 billion dollar valuation without having sold more than 50,000 vehicles or delivered more than 200 vehicles. They're not willing to communicate. I've owned Tesla's for 9 years and loved the first 5 years of the company. The last 4 years or so, can't stand the company. Had hoped Rivian start out like Tesla did and would get 5 years of them catering to their customers and that white glove service. But, appears they're jumping ahead to about the point where Tesla was when they changed. I decided last year, I was done with Tesla after my current car. About the pull the plug on Rivian too. It's just all too familiar and not willing to travel the same road again.

Tesla kept me in their cars the last 4 years because they were still in a market by themselves. Rivian clearly has the best EV truck available at this time, but starting to feel like that won't be enough for me this time around. The signs just keep popping up that this is Tesla all over again, when do I take the hints and see the writing on the wall?

Being that I have zero clue when I will receive my truck and will effectively be taking multiple steps backwards with their interface as compared to Tesla's much improved interface that I've grown accustomed to, very close to pulling the plug and cancelling the order. And, at $57 to $62, it was already on the high-side for a startup company, but was wiling to take the gamble and invest. Now, almost 100% certain I won't be funding the Morgan Stanley account tomorrow to make the purchase at $72-$74.

Being that they've stated their focus is going to be on Amazon vans rather than satisfying customer orders, can only assume many of the 50,000 reservations will vanish as well since not everyone can wait years to get a vehicle. Such high hopes. Should've known better. High hopes always lead to disappointments.

Was fun to get excited about something new. But after having seen the truck at the auto show in what, 2016 I think it was, the look is already starting to feel dated. Add to that, likely waiting another 2 years until I would actually get one and it will be a 7 year dated vehicle already. Had a Model 3 for a short time and hated it, primarily because everything had to be controlled through the main screen. Got quite annoying. Went back to the Model S just a couple of months later as it was still more driver friendly. The new Model S doubled down on the Model 3 concept and is even worse. Rivian, appears to be what the Model 3 originally was. Have been trying to overlook that for the other benefits, but just keep realizing I'll be going back in time with that interface. The truck capabilities are incredible, but operating it is just as important for my personal use and needs. I wish them the best and hope they succeed. But, will do so with at least one less customer.

Even hearing the Rivian faithful guys that make constant videos about Rivian lose their excitement over the vehicle and company. That, in addition to many customer complaints already. Rivian is getting too big for themselves before even getting started.
 

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From $57 to now possibly $74 is almost a 30% increase in IPO stock price. The surprises just keep coming from Rivian. What's next another revision tomorrow up to $90-$95 just before 6PM? At this point I'm starting to reconsider my participation in the DSP.
Rivian isn't setting the price. Morgan Stanley and the underwriters are setting it based on what they think is the appropriate initial price.
 

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From $57 to now possibly $74 is almost a 30% increase in IPO stock price. The surprises just keep coming from Rivian. What's next another revision tomorrow up to $90-$95 just before 6PM? At this point I'm starting to reconsider my participation in the DSP.
You loose some of your point by taking the previous low to the new high. To make an honest comparison, you should take the previous high of 62 to the new high of 74. Still takes meat off the bone but is only a 19% increase.
 

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Very disappointed to find in my email today news that the pricing of the ipo has increased from $57-$62 to $72-$74.
I thought an $80B valuation was quite frothy already but was happy to take it given market circumstances and the prospects of the company in a very optimistic scenario. At nearly $100B it seems like a different story and feels like a plain old money grab at this point. A higher valuation will only hurt them in the long run if there’s any hiccup along the road (and what chance is there that there isint).

This is a $.1T valuation for s pre revenue company with significant execution challenges ahead.

There Is no one more in love with the product that myself but we this point it doesn’t feel like a good investment in the long run (ie. It might still pop in the ipo but doesn’t look like good return prospects in the long term)
Your numbers are off, the 80 billion was a speculation before the prices were established. The previous range had it around 55 billion, the new adjusted has it around 65 billion and would net them closer to 10 billion compared to 8.5 previously.
 

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I'm starting to lose faith in this company. After being told a price, went through the hassle of opening a Morgan Stanley account, all the endless account verifications necessary and so forth, now, the day before, they jack up the price around 25%.

Tesla was incredible when they started. Then they grew and grew and grew and now, as a company, their heads have grown too big. Customer service is horrible, their attitude sucks. But, for now at least, they're still selling more cars than they can build, so nothing will change. Rivian has very much shown that they're following Tesla's blueprints, yet trying to do so as an advanced company several years into the process rather than a startup.

Their interface in the truck is effectively a carbon copy of Tesla's, yet a dated version of it. They're trying to open at over an $80 billion dollar valuation without having sold more than 50,000 vehicles or delivered more than 200 vehicles. They're not willing to communicate. I've owned Tesla's for 9 years and loved the first 5 years of the company. The last 4 years or so, can't stand the company. Had hoped Rivian start out like Tesla did and would get 5 years of them catering to their customers and that white glove service. But, appears they're jumping ahead to about the point where Tesla was when they changed. I decided last year, I was done with Tesla after my current car. About the pull the plug on Rivian too. It's just all too familiar and not willing to travel the same road again.

Tesla kept me in their cars the last 4 years because they were still in a market by themselves. Rivian clearly has the best EV truck available at this time, but starting to feel like that won't be enough for me this time around. The signs just keep popping up that this is Tesla all over again, when do I take the hints and see the writing on the wall?

Being that I have zero clue when I will receive my truck and will effectively be taking multiple steps backwards with their interface as compared to Tesla's much improved interface that I've grown accustomed to, very close to pulling the plug and cancelling the order. And, at $57 to $62, it was already on the high-side for a startup company, but was wiling to take the gamble and invest. Now, almost 100% certain I won't be funding the Morgan Stanley account tomorrow to make the purchase at $72-$74.

Being that they've stated their focus is going to be on Amazon vans rather than satisfying customer orders, can only assume many of the 50,000 reservations will vanish as well since not everyone can wait years to get a vehicle. Such high hopes. Should've known better. High hopes always lead to disappointments.

Was fun to get excited about something new. But after having seen the truck at the auto show in what, 2016 I think it was, the look is already starting to feel dated. Add to that, likely waiting another 2 years until I would actually get one and it will be a 7 year dated vehicle already. Had a Model 3 for a short time and hated it, primarily because everything had to be controlled through the main screen. Got quite annoying. Went back to the Model S just a couple of months later as it was still more driver friendly. The new Model S doubled down on the Model 3 concept and is even worse. Rivian, appears to be what the Model 3 originally was. Have been trying to overlook that for the other benefits, but just keep realizing I'll be going back in time with that interface. The truck capabilities are incredible, but operating it is just as important for my personal use and needs. I wish them the best and hope they succeed. But, will do so with at least one less customer.

Even hearing the Rivian faithful guys that make constant videos about Rivian lose their excitement over the vehicle and company. That, in addition to many customer complaints already. Rivian is getting too big for themselves before even getting started.
Eloquent and sobering read. Thanks for posting.
 

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Discussion Starter · #10 ·
Your numbers are off, the 80 billion was a speculation before the prices were established. The previous range had it around 55 billion, the new adjusted has it around 65 billion and would net them closer to 10 billion compared to 8.5 previously.
Correct. I got carried away with the initial speculation on the pricing range. I guess with the actual numbers it's not too bad. I mean nothing really makes sense from a fundamentals perspective, it's just speculation based on a best case scenario.
Lots of good points by everyone and liking the discussion. I am still unsure whether I will participate in the direct sale or not, even though I have my account already set up and everything.
@wizard467 I disagree with your point. For one I think Rivian def has a say in it's price. MS or GS may give them a range or options but they can certainly decide to go lower or higher, or for example not go to the highest end of the highest range. Why would they choose not to? Again I respectfully disagree with your second point. I think they do benefit quite a lot if the share price goes up after the IPO. Sure not in a direct 'money in the bank' way, but in many other tangible and intangibles such as borrowing costs, if they decide to raise more money down the line either via debt, more stock or convertibles, etc, etc. In fact I believe the biggest benefit would be in perception and attracting a large investor base. If they value to high in the IPO and the stock performs poorly for several years after, even though they got more money in the bank to begin with, I think the general perception of the company as a poor performer, etc. more than dilutes those benefits. Much better IMO to leave some money on the table in the IPO and leave room for the stock to go up and stay up in the months and years ahead.
In short - it is not a given that every single company maximizes the amount of money and stock they can sell at the IPO (by selling the most amount of stock at the highest price possible), for the reasons given above.
Anyways, just my opinion, would love to see what everyone else thinks.
 

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Correct. I got carried away with the initial speculation on the pricing range. I guess with the actual numbers it's not too bad. I mean nothing really makes sense from a fundamentals perspective, it's just speculation based on a best case scenario.
Lots of good points by everyone and liking the discussion. I am still unsure whether I will participate in the direct sale or not, even though I have my account already set up and everything.
@wizard467 I disagree with your point. For one I think Rivian def has a say in it's price. MS or GS may give them a range or options but they can certainly decide to go lower or higher, or for example not go to the highest end of the highest range. Why would they choose not to? Again I respectfully disagree with your second point. I think they do benefit quite a lot if the share price goes up after the IPO. Sure not in a direct 'money in the bank' way, but in many other tangible and intangibles such as borrowing costs, if they decide to raise more money down the line either via debt, more stock or convertibles, etc, etc. In fact I believe the biggest benefit would be in perception and attracting a large investor base. If they value to high in the IPO and the stock performs poorly for several years after, even though they got more money in the bank to begin with, I think the general perception of the company as a poor performer, etc. more than dilutes those benefits. Much better IMO to leave some money on the table in the IPO and leave room for the stock to go up and stay up in the months and years ahead.
In short - it is not a given that every single company maximizes the amount of money and stock they can sell at the IPO (by selling the most amount of stock at the highest price possible), for the reasons given above.
Anyways, just my opinion, would love to see what everyone else thinks.
Sorry, Rivian doesnt set the final price, it’s just not how it works. The underwriters set the price.

I think you misread my second point because I said the same thing you are saying. Rivian gets direct money only from the initial sale, after that if the stock goes lower or higher they are not directly (cash) affected.
 

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Discussion Starter · #12 ·
Sorry, Rivian doesnt set the final price, it’s just not how it works. The underwriters set the price.

I think you misread my second point because I said the same thing you are saying. Rivian gets direct money only from the initial sale, after that if the stock goes lower or higher they are not directly (cash) affected.
I'm not saying they set the price, I'm saying they can certainly influence it. To think they have no say in how their IPO is priced is preposterous.

I understood your point, but you seem to be missing the implications, they are not affected in a direct (cash) way by a fluctuating or trending down stock price, but they are affected perhaps even more substantially in other indirect ways (which I outlined earlier).
 

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I agree with some of the fellow Rivianites(!). While excited about the initial IPO, I was disappointed to see the estimates increase ~25%. At this point, I am going to wait and watch and see what happens when it IPOs. :/
 

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Discussion Starter · #15 ·
Anyone received the email from Morgan Stanley about the pricing terms considering we need to accept before 11.59PM ET which is less than 3 hours?
I did 20 min ago. Price is $78 per share and they extended the deadline to confirm allocation until tomorrow morning
 

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I'm starting to lose faith in this company. After being told a price, went through the hassle of opening a Morgan Stanley account, all the endless account verifications necessary and so forth, now, the day before, they jack up the price around 25%.

Tesla was incredible when they started. Then they grew and grew and grew and now, as a company, their heads have grown too big. Customer service is horrible, their attitude sucks. But, for now at least, they're still selling more cars than they can build, so nothing will change. Rivian has very much shown that they're following Tesla's blueprints, yet trying to do so as an advanced company several years into the process rather than a startup.

Their interface in the truck is effectively a carbon copy of Tesla's, yet a dated version of it. They're trying to open at over an $80 billion dollar valuation without having sold more than 50,000 vehicles or delivered more than 200 vehicles. They're not willing to communicate. I've owned Tesla's for 9 years and loved the first 5 years of the company. The last 4 years or so, can't stand the company. Had hoped Rivian start out like Tesla did and would get 5 years of them catering to their customers and that white glove service. But, appears they're jumping ahead to about the point where Tesla was when they changed. I decided last year, I was done with Tesla after my current car. About the pull the plug on Rivian too. It's just all too familiar and not willing to travel the same road again.

Tesla kept me in their cars the last 4 years because they were still in a market by themselves. Rivian clearly has the best EV truck available at this time, but starting to feel like that won't be enough for me this time around. The signs just keep popping up that this is Tesla all over again, when do I take the hints and see the writing on the wall?

Being that I have zero clue when I will receive my truck and will effectively be taking multiple steps backwards with their interface as compared to Tesla's much improved interface that I've grown accustomed to, very close to pulling the plug and cancelling the order. And, at $57 to $62, it was already on the high-side for a startup company, but was wiling to take the gamble and invest. Now, almost 100% certain I won't be funding the Morgan Stanley account tomorrow to make the purchase at $72-$74.

Being that they've stated their focus is going to be on Amazon vans rather than satisfying customer orders, can only assume many of the 50,000 reservations will vanish as well since not everyone can wait years to get a vehicle. Such high hopes. Should've known better. High hopes always lead to disappointments.

Was fun to get excited about something new. But after having seen the truck at the auto show in what, 2016 I think it was, the look is already starting to feel dated. Add to that, likely waiting another 2 years until I would actually get one and it will be a 7 year dated vehicle already. Had a Model 3 for a short time and hated it, primarily because everything had to be controlled through the main screen. Got quite annoying. Went back to the Model S just a couple of months later as it was still more driver friendly. The new Model S doubled down on the Model 3 concept and is even worse. Rivian, appears to be what the Model 3 originally was. Have been trying to overlook that for the other benefits, but just keep realizing I'll be going back in time with that interface. The truck capabilities are incredible, but operating it is just as important for my personal use and needs. I wish them the best and hope they succeed. But, will do so with at least one less customer.

Even hearing the Rivian faithful guys that make constant videos about Rivian lose their excitement over the vehicle and company. That, in addition to many customer complaints already. Rivian is getting too big for themselves before even getting started.
KMB - I must say I agree with everything you have said here and I too have turned away for Tesla. I was a big supporter but not anymore. Crazy Elon has lost it and is making decisions that are not reasonable.
 

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KMB - I must say I agree with everything you have said here and I too have turned away for Tesla. I was a big supporter but not anymore. Crazy Elon has lost it and is making decisions that are not reasonable.
I like both Tesla and Rivian- and they both have and will continue to have some annoying traits. You “fall in love with the defects”, they say.
With that, I expect Rivian to be quirky in different ways than Tesla. They don’t need to be another Tesla and they will make their own original mistakes. Scaringe doesn’t need to be Musk- the industry just needs him to be Scaringe and relentlessly scale while not falling behind software , battery and efficiency talent.
It is still an important part of the journey of electrification, but it is not the pioneering old days when a company had to prove the EV agenda and itself. This is the end of the beginning: Rivian can focus on making great vehicles, and scaling manufacturing and charging, period. EVs have “crossed the chasm” and there’s going to be reluctant converts but there is no doubt they’ll pre-sell every truck they can build for many many years.
 

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Well, by default I guess I am out. Never got the MS email until 7:00AM this morning, tried to log onto the system and it is closed out. Pretty bad that (in theory) they send out the email at 6:00 PM EST on 11/9/2021 and expect your response back by 0700EST on 11/10/2021 the next day. 13 hours to respond to it and about 8-9 hours of that a person is sleeping on the east coast. Seems strange to me. So I guess it was not meant to be. at $78 / share, I probably would only have bought like 10 shares just to say I invested into the company. Guess my $1000 deposit will have to be proof enough that I have invested into the company.
 
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