[eHauler]

With news of Rivian cutting its electric vehicle production forecast in half, is this the last straw for you?

Interested in seeing how many are fed up being told about another delay, especially after they tried to hike prices by a lot just last week.

Heck, even investors are not having it. The stock broke below $40 and is currently ranging around $38!

 

[SANZCO2]

Can you provide details where you get this from?

Other than an analyst expecting 50k this year I have never seen Rivian state that. Only thing I’ve seen from Rivian is they expected to get the 55k back order delivered by end of 23.

I do not see them calling out 25k deliveries as much of a change.

 

[Turd Furgeson]

Who wrote this? Based on numbers rivian released, this information is patently FALSE. production is still ramping up, supply is the choke point and alternate supppliers are being sourced inside and outside of korea now. If you want to get a feel for how fast rivian will ramp, look at metal supply and the health of korean manufacturers and their imports. this gaslight post reminds me of the equivalent of a 6th grade playground rumor.

 

[O. horridus]

I have never seen Rivian state that. Only thing I’ve seen from Rivian is they expected to get the 55k back order delivered by end of 23.

Based on numbers rivian released, this information is patently FALSE.

Yes, this is just FALSE. There is no "cut". The IPO disclosure said fulfillment of all existing pre-orders (about 48,000 at the time) would occur before the end of 2023.

The new numbers are perfectly consistent with the old projections. There is no "cut" in production.

 

[Spawnywhippet]

Do you work for an oil company? This information was just a plain lie. The company did not announce this.

 

[rhumbliner]

Do you work for an oil company? This information was just a plain lie. The company did not announce this.

Rivian did announce that 25,000 units is this year’s target: Motley Fool.

 

[SANZCO2]

Rivian did announce that 25,000 units is this year’s target: Motley Fool.

This is true they did announce the 25k this year.

The issue is they never said they would do 50k, they actually never announced a target delivery amount for 2022 prior to this (if there is one I missed can you show me where it is), so they did not cut the delivery amount in half.

 

[rhumbliner]

This is true they did announce the 25k this year.

The issue is they never said they would do 50k,

Oh I agree, I never saw an announcement stating 50k, but I think the market expected it and this latest announcement burst their bubble.

 

[SANZCO2]

Oh I agree, I never saw an announcement stating 50k, but I think the market expected it and this latest announcement burst their bubble.

I read his expectation but the issue I have is it had no basis to project those numbers. Then a lot of people get in an uproar because someone with no inside knowledge of Rivian projected numbers they have never committed to.

Just to give an example of what a stretch that would have been. In the middle of one of the worst supply chain issues we have seen. Someone projects Rivian should do 6k more than double Tesla did in their first year (22k in 2013)Tesla did not exceed 50k until their third full year of production (2014 was 31,655 and 2015 was 50,580). Just not sure where his numbers came from as he did not provide any explanation for them.

 

[@Boise]

I am thinking that 55k by end of 2023 did not include EDVs, just pre order holders. But the latest reporting of 25k in 2022 INCLUDES EDVs, which are targeted for 10k in 2022. Hence, there is a significant reduction in R1s for 2022.

If Rivian focuses on meeting the 10k EDVs then that leaves just 15k R1s in 2022!

 

[SANZCO2]

They have stated if they could clear the supply chain issues they have ran rates that could yield 50k this year. Even if they did not ramp any further but you know they are planning to ramp to 150k a year, doubling to 50k for 2023 with a split of 10k EDV and 40K R1 would hit the 55k.

Just trying to put chicken little back in the cage. Will the supply chain issues completely clear up. Probably not, lot of bad stuff happening in the world right now, but let’s see where they are after QTRs 2 and 3 before we completely through out their original projections when we are not even through Q1.

 

[@Boise]

They have stated if they could clear the supply chain issues they have ran rates that could yield 50k this year. Even if they did not ramp any further but you know they are planning to ramp to 150k a year, doubling to 50k for 2023 with a split of 10k EDV and 40K R1 would hit the 55k.

Just trying to put chicken little back in the cage. Will the supply chain issues completely clear up. Probably not, lot of bad stuff happening in the world right now, but let’s see where they are after QTRs 2 and 3 before we completely through out their original projections when we are not even through Q1.

My comments are based on what is currently projected by Rivian for 2022. 25k for R1s + EDVs. Your numbers don’t jive with anything currently projected by Rivian. Mostly wishful thinking. The IFs are totally out of Rivian’s control and are very unlikely to happen.

Could Rivian beat their current projections; yes but it will require a great deal of fortuitous luck.

I am a supporter of Rivian and I except the delays, which are primary out of Rivian's control.

At this point in time I have no intention of walking away.

 

[@Boise]

My comments are based on what is currently projected by Rivian for 2022. 25k for R1s + EDVs. Your numbers don’t jive with anything currently projected by Rivian. Mostly wishful thinking. The “Ifs” are totally out of their control and are not likely to happen.

Could Rivian beat their current projections; yes but it will require a great deal of luck.

I am a supporter of Rivian and I except the delays, which are primary out of Rivian's control.

At this point in time I have no intention of walking away.

 

[SANZCO2]

I am not expecting them to beat their current projections for 2022. Just saying that they still could make the 55k by the end of 23 with that 25 (10/15 split) for this year.

Sure it could still be a miss at the end of 23, as I said a lot of bad stuff happening right now in the world. Things could (and likely will) get worse before it gets better but they are just getting started, a little early for me to call it over.

 

[jbronko1]

For me personally, I'm just in wait-and-see mode. I have a 2010 4runner. I want a pickup. if Rivian can get me my R1T by the time the 4Runner is starting to give me problems, I'll wait. If not, I'll just lease an ICE Colorado or Ranger for 2 years and then buy a Rivian or another EV pickup.
If the rumors are true that they can deliver all the pre-orders by end of 2023, I'm fine to wait, and I expect the 4runner to hold up by then as (knock wood), I have had essentially zero problems with that beloved truck. But if it I get the feeling it's going to push well into 2024, then I'll be looking at my lease options.
Note, I didn't cancel my order on the price increase, but if it held, I would not have moved forward with the order, I would have done this lease approach sooner than I stated above since Rivian was off the table for me. $91k is more than I've ever spent for my personal cars over my entire lifetime (I'm 52), so $110k was out of the question on principal.

 

[Jake Blues]

My guess is that my R1S reserved in September 2021 was in the mid 40,000 range. I was notified that my R1S would be delivered in the first half of 2023. I an guessing that it will now be pushed to the end of 2023. Not too bad, but with global supply chain problems, who knows at this point. Maybe the new COO will get production ramped up faster.

Note: I did cancel my reservation on March 1 but asked for reservation to be restored when RJ decided to hold the price on existing reservations. Waiting for my configuration to be restored. I canceled because the R1S went beyond what I wanted to pay for any vehicle and not because of anger.