[eHauler]

With the R1T pickup and R1S SUV launching late 2021 in the U.S., a current expansion underway into regions outside of North America and smaller electric vehicles to follow, could Rivian be paving the way to go mainstream?

 

[davethedog]

Do you consider Land Rover a mainstream manufacturer?

 

[CommodoreAmiga]

I think (hope) they remain a premium manufacturer.

 

[Wildabeest]

To the extent that Tesla is, yes. But I think they will always be unique compared to the traditional ICE companies.

 

[Smoothjazz]

Put it this way; if they were to go public this year, I will be buying some of their stock. I am very optimistic they can follow the Tesla model and grow substantially.

 

[Roamtheworld]

If you look at all the new EV companies worldwide I think Rivian has the best chance to make it in the mainstream automotive world. China EV companies will sell many more vehicles but not take those sales outside of Asia. Now that "major" brands have decided to make EVs as main product lines the chances are much smaller for other new stand-alone EV companies to go mainstream. Plenty of room for several niche EV companies making commercial vehicles as an example. Cool days ahead for EVs.

 

[babywrinkles]

Yes - if they can weather this chip shortage.

They'll sit in the Lexus/Acura/Infiniti niche. While these are 'Adventure Vehicles' - I think they'll pivot in to more mainstream down the road. I wouldn't be surprised to see a full sized sedan (Honda Accord / Toyota Camry / BMW 5 Series sized) and CUV (Model Y / Subaru Forester / Toyota Rav4) from them before 2030.

 

[Roamtheworld]

I agree a CUV must be on the shortlist for future products. I don't see a new company like Rivian building a sedan anytime soon with Polestar and Lucid filling the niche company holes for sedans.

 

[eHauler]

If you look at all the new EV companies worldwide I think Rivian has the best chance to make it in the mainstream automotive world. China EV companies will sell many more vehicles but not take those sales outside of Asia. Now that "major" brands have decided to make EVs as main product lines the chances are much smaller for other new stand-alone EV companies to go mainstream. Plenty of room for several niche EV companies making commercial vehicles as an example. Cool days ahead for EVs.

Things sure are aligning to that with what Rivian is doing so far (minus the delays of course!)
Did you at any point consider EVs from the mainstream brands?

 

[eHauler]

Yes - if they can weather this chip shortage.

They'll sit in the Lexus/Acura/Infiniti niche. While these are 'Adventure Vehicles' - I think they'll pivot in to more mainstream down the road. I wouldn't be surprised to see a full sized sedan (Honda Accord / Toyota Camry / BMW 5 Series sized) and CUV (Model Y / Subaru Forester / Toyota Rav4) from them before 2030.

Good news...

Ford is getting supply of chips and could be a good sign of things now slowly returning to normal throughout the industry. The partnership they have with Rivian could mean Rivian has a much better time at weathering this storm.

Ford could start shipping unchipped vehicles to dealers later this year

This latest development allows Ford to get vehicles to dealers sooner, and allows the final touches to be done on site, a spokesperson said.

www.freep.com

 

[Roamtheworld]

Things sure are aligning to that with what Rivian is doing so far (minus the delays of course!)
Did you at any point consider EVs from the mainstream brands?

When I first saw Rivian it just made sense to me compared to Bollinger B1/B2 or Cyber truck. Now that we have the Ford Lightning inbound and with GM and Stelantis happening in a couple of years I can see a shift in customers to those more established brands. Rivian needs to deliver in September to stay ahead. I see Ford making a real dent in EVs since the introduction of Mach-E and Lightning to follow. VW/Audi not having any truck offerings keeps Rivian in play as well. I still like the Rivian lifestyle brand model as it makes them something special in the sea of automotive brands.

 

[JimmyEV]

I think (hope) they remain a premium manufacturer.

I think this is the avenue Rivian needs to stay in. If they try to expand into multiple classes and price brackets I don't think it ends well for them.

 

[eHauler]

When I first saw Rivian it just made sense to me compared to Bollinger B1/B2 or Cyber truck. Now that we have the Ford Lightning inbound and with GM and Stelantis happening in a couple of years I can see a shift in customers to those more established brands. Rivian needs to deliver in September to stay ahead. I see Ford making a real dent in EVs since the introduction of Mach-E and Lightning to follow. VW/Audi not having any truck offerings keeps Rivian in play as well. I still like the Rivian lifestyle brand model as it makes them something special in the sea of automotive brands.

I had a similar experience, day 1 backers like Amazon and Ford did it for me.

 

[Roamtheworld]

I had a similar experience, day 1 backers like Amazon and Ford did it for me.

Amazon alone would make Rivian a winner. I just hope they can spin up to full production quickly. 6 months is a long time in the automotive world.

 

[eHauler]

Amazon alone would make Rivian a winner. I just hope they can spin up to full production quickly. 6 months is a long time in the automotive world.

Yeah no doubt.
The amount that Amazon put into it is another thing and speaks volumes. I thought Rivian was another nothing-burger till finding out how much Amazon is supporting them.

 

[babywrinkles]

Amazon alone would make Rivian a winner.

The Dodge vans they (Amazon) are using now start at ~$35k. If we operate from a similar assumption that these Rivian vans have a price around $40k (negotiated for volume discount @ 100k vans), that's $4B in guaranteed revenue from Amazon alone.

Rivian is 100% set up for long term success if they can start shipping vehicles - which appears to at this point just be a supply chain problem. We're in for an R1T and R1S, and I expect to see them everywhere in my area (Pacific Northwest). Teslas rule the roads here these days - and have been since before the Model 3 was a viable option, so the price bracket won't be a deterrent. I suspect they'll also eat in to Land Rover / Jaguars market pretty significantly ($20B/year), as well as Subaru (delta between Ascent / Forester and base R1S isn't insurmountable and is mitigated once you consider long term cost of ownership).

And that all assumes that UPS/FedEx/DHL doesn't buy 100k vans each to go electric. And that they don't release any new products (in an interview, RJ casually dropped that they have 3 unannounced products in the pipe - I'd guess something in the CUV (Subaru Crosstrek/Forester) class, something akin to a Wrangler, and then something unorthodox - maybe an ATV, Snowmobile, Motorcycle, or something even smaller - ebike or scooter? - that's 'adventure ready.'

 

[Mr. Gee]

And that all assumes that UPS/FedEx/DHL doesn't buy 100k vans each to go electric.

UPS/FedEx/DHL already have deals with BrightDrop, Arrival and Lightning eMotors, respectively. The delivery van market is very large. We'll see who's left once the dust settles.