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Discussion Starter · #1 ·
I find the lack of comment regarding the Rivian Q4 Earnings Report a bit surprising. The loss, even as large as it was, is of course not a surprise for a start-up. The revised production numbers however, are hugely disappointing, even for those of us who were not optimistic about deliveries.

"The automaker claims that it would be ready to produce as many as 25,000 vehicles between [sic] its 3 models, R1T (pickup), R1S (SUV), and EDV (delivery van), but that supply chain issues plaguing the industry is limiting their guidance to 25,000 units this year."

Since the 25,000 figure includes the EDV's, this seems to mean is that Rivian will deliver just 1,250 R1's, on average, each month for 2022 (25,000 less 10,000 EDV's = 15,000 R1T/S for the year). That means roughly 1/3 of the original pre-order holders will get their trucks this year. I did not see a breakdown of truck vs SUV production, but given the difficulties getting the R1T up to FRP numbers, I would expect that only a handful of R1S's will be delivered.

If Rivian manages to double production by next year, that would allow them to roughly fulfill all of the initial pre-orders by the end of 2023. But that also means 2023 production will include the R1T Max and the R1S, variants that will tend to decrease production rates. And perhaps unsurprisingly, there is no word from Rivian on when the R1S "no longer Max" model will start to deliver. All of this seems to call into question the estimated delivery dates that many of us received.

I anticipated that Rivian would produce about 20,000 R1 vehicles this year but it now looks like that estimate was overly optimistic. Usually, I'm happy to be proved wrong, but not in this fashion. Perhaps the 2022 Q1 report will have some good news.
 

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I took a week off from the forum and I can tell from the lack of engagement here regarding the earnings call that the preorder community is a jaded and tired one. With every passing quarter there comes no good news, literally none. The production, and excuses for the lack thereof, are pathetic. The SEC will be forced to review the pre IPO information because much of it was nothing short of lies. The new COO is good news (what a compensation package he must have been able to demand!)....but I want to hear soon that RJ is stepping back from day to day operations because his lack of business acumen is telling.
 

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I find the lack of comment regarding the Rivian Q4 Earnings Report a bit surprising
Well, most of it was exactly what I expected. I didn't expect the new dual-motor platforms just yet. But specifically the production projections for 2022 were consistent with everything that's been said since before the IPO. And yes, we had lots of comments in lots of threads about that.

I've posted many times that I think the real milestone that we need to pay attention to is the delivery windows given to individual customers. The earliest are March-April. And we are indeed seeing a lot of deliveries being made right now and a lot of vehicles appearing in the support center parking lots (in Denver, Utah, and Seattle, for example).

If they miss a significant number of deliveries that were promised for March-April, that's a little worrying. And if they miss my delivery window of May-June that's even more worrying :) And if they make these deliveries within the windows, then it seems they're right on track.
 

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I find the lack of comment regarding the Rivian Q4 Earnings Report a bit surprising. The loss, even as large as it was, is of course not a surprise for a start-up. The revised production numbers however, are hugely disappointing, even for those of us who were not optimistic about deliveries.

"The automaker claims that it would be ready to produce as many as 25,000 vehicles between [sic] its 3 models, R1T (pickup), R1S (SUV), and EDV (delivery van), but that supply chain issues plaguing the industry is limiting their guidance to 25,000 units this year."

Since the 25,000 figure includes the EDV's, this seems to mean is that Rivian will deliver just 1,250 R1's, on average, each month for 2022 (25,000 less 10,000 EDV's = 15,000 R1T/S for the year). That means roughly 1/3 of the original pre-order holders will get their trucks this year. I did not see a breakdown of truck vs SUV production, but given the difficulties getting the R1T up to FRP numbers, I would expect that only a handful of R1S's will be delivered.

If Rivian manages to double production by next year, that would allow them to roughly fulfill all of the initial pre-orders by the end of 2023. But that also means 2023 production will include the R1T Max and the R1S, variants that will tend to decrease production rates. And perhaps unsurprisingly, there is no word from Rivian on when the R1S "no longer Max" model will start to deliver. All of this seems to call into question the estimated delivery dates that many of us received.

I anticipated that Rivian would produce about 20,000 R1 vehicles this year but it now looks like that estimate was overly optimistic. Usually, I'm happy to be proved wrong, but not in this fashion. Perhaps the 2022 Q1 report will have some good news.
I think many folks in this forum missed that the recent projection for 2022 INCLUDES EDVs. Past projections did NOT include EDVs. Hence a significant reduction in R1s for 2022. No getting around that. New (delayed) delivery window estimates are certainly coming.

Optimistically (foolishly) the parts supply will not be as bad as thought but more realistically it will be even worse.

Rivian has made some mistakes but I think we should focus our disappointment for the delays on current world wide unpredictable uncontrollables.

Also that we should anticipate delays for most things as a part of life. Wanting what you want when you want it is a thing of the past.

Lets not forget that there IS a substantial difference between a Need and a Want …. IMHO R1s are a want.
 

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Discussion Starter · #7 · (Edited)
I think many folks in this forum missed that the recent projection for 2022 INCLUDES EDVs. Past projections did NOT include EDVs. Hence a significant reduction in R1s for 2022. No getting around that. New (delayed) delivery window estimates are certainly coming.

Optimistically (foolishly) the parts supply will not be as bad as thought but more realistically it will be even worse.

Rivian has made some mistakes but I think we should focus our disappointment for the delays on current world wide unpredictable uncontrollables.

Also that we should anticipate delays for most things as a part of life. Wanting what you want when you want it is a thing of the past.

Lets not forget that there IS a substantial difference between a Need and a Want …. IMHO R1s are a want.
Also neglected is that the new estimate of vehicle production for 2022 is half of what Rivian projected in 2021.

Some other data points in the Q4 report include that total vehicle production as of early March is 2,425 of which 1,410 were produced in 2021. That means that about 1,015 vehicles were produced in two months and so production will need to average about 1,398 each month going forward to get to the new estimate of 15,000 for the year. Rivian will need to nearly triple their present monthly rate to get there, which could be a challenge.

In addition, the report states that by the end of 2022, the new in-house motors will be fitted to the EDVs and that R1's, both dual and quad-motor versions will have them by late 2023.

Finally, Rivian stated that they plan to shift to LFP batteries for the standard-range vehicles (currently all models use NCA batteries) and that their total orders were now 83,000.
 
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