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I find the lack of comment regarding the Rivian Q4 Earnings Report a bit surprising. The loss, even as large as it was, is of course not a surprise for a start-up. The revised production numbers however, are hugely disappointing, even for those of us who were not optimistic about deliveries.
"The automaker claims that it would be ready to produce as many as 25,000 vehicles between [sic] its 3 models, R1T (pickup), R1S (SUV), and EDV (delivery van), but that supply chain issues plaguing the industry is limiting their guidance to 25,000 units this year."
Since the 25,000 figure includes the EDV's, this seems to mean is that Rivian will deliver just 1,250 R1's, on average, each month for 2022 (25,000 less 10,000 EDV's = 15,000 R1T/S for the year). That means roughly 1/3 of the original pre-order holders will get their trucks this year. I did not see a breakdown of truck vs SUV production, but given the difficulties getting the R1T up to FRP numbers, I would expect that only a handful of R1S's will be delivered.
If Rivian manages to double production by next year, that would allow them to roughly fulfill all of the initial pre-orders by the end of 2023. But that also means 2023 production will include the R1T Max and the R1S, variants that will tend to decrease production rates. And perhaps unsurprisingly, there is no word from Rivian on when the R1S "no longer Max" model will start to deliver. All of this seems to call into question the estimated delivery dates that many of us received.
I anticipated that Rivian would produce about 20,000 R1 vehicles this year but it now looks like that estimate was overly optimistic. Usually, I'm happy to be proved wrong, but not in this fashion. Perhaps the 2022 Q1 report will have some good news.
"The automaker claims that it would be ready to produce as many as 25,000 vehicles between [sic] its 3 models, R1T (pickup), R1S (SUV), and EDV (delivery van), but that supply chain issues plaguing the industry is limiting their guidance to 25,000 units this year."
Since the 25,000 figure includes the EDV's, this seems to mean is that Rivian will deliver just 1,250 R1's, on average, each month for 2022 (25,000 less 10,000 EDV's = 15,000 R1T/S for the year). That means roughly 1/3 of the original pre-order holders will get their trucks this year. I did not see a breakdown of truck vs SUV production, but given the difficulties getting the R1T up to FRP numbers, I would expect that only a handful of R1S's will be delivered.
If Rivian manages to double production by next year, that would allow them to roughly fulfill all of the initial pre-orders by the end of 2023. But that also means 2023 production will include the R1T Max and the R1S, variants that will tend to decrease production rates. And perhaps unsurprisingly, there is no word from Rivian on when the R1S "no longer Max" model will start to deliver. All of this seems to call into question the estimated delivery dates that many of us received.
I anticipated that Rivian would produce about 20,000 R1 vehicles this year but it now looks like that estimate was overly optimistic. Usually, I'm happy to be proved wrong, but not in this fashion. Perhaps the 2022 Q1 report will have some good news.
And if they make these deliveries within the windows, then it seems they're right on track.
