I saw some comments on how misleading eMPG is and after doing some calculations I was totally shocked at these numbers.
Rivian R1T window sticker shows efficiency of 48 kWh/100mi. Electrifiy America member cost is $0.43 per kWh.
Thus 100 miles cost $20.64. At the current AAA national gas price average of $3.34 this could have purchased 6.2 gallons of gas.
6.2 gallons of gas over 100 miles is the equivalent of 16.2 mpg???
You can charge at home for likely much cheaper, but even with a low $0.13 kWh rate you are looking at around a 53 mpg equivalent. Nothing close to the the 74 eMPG numbers the EPA is pushing on the R1 window stickers. And who will go a whole year with no fast charging? What about road trips or other times where fast charging is a must?
I welcome others analysis or any counterpoints to the above calculations.
I'm having some serious doubt about my R1S reservation. Not just the lack of electric $ savings, although this is eye opening; but also no full size spare, pushing this odd 21" wheel size, the $70k price, long wait, no carplay/android auto, forcing Amazon Alexis on us, drastic reduction in range while towing, battery degradation, concerns of other issues as an early EV adopter of a big SUV. Maybe I just consider something such as the 2023 Sequoia. I'm torn as I really do like the idea of an EV and a lot of the features of the R1S as well as Rivian.
<--- Guy will go an entire year without fast charging and I've got (3) Tesla's with Free Unlimited Supercharging.
I think you're having an EV issue and not necessarily a Rivian issue.
TLDR: Your calculations aren't wrong, but you have to factor in the entire ecosystem. EVs aren't cheap enough to be a good fit for everyone yet.
When I first got them, I charged everywhere I could. By year 3, I was even going specifically to the supercharger as they were abundant and free so I wouldn't have to pay for the electricity at home.
6+ years later the time I spend at the charger just isn't worth. My average cost to "Fill" my tank is roughly $5-$7 depending on the car when I charge it at home. That's assuming I pay retail electric rates, which I don't due to solar.
So how much would I have spent if I paid retail rates on roughly 280,000 miles?
- My avg Wh/mi across all 3 cars (1 of which tows regularly) is approximately 415Wh/mi. The Model S gets under 280Wh/mi but the X that tows has seen 900Wh/mi on cold, icy towing days. With a 15%-20% loss factored in due to vampire losses, charging efficiency losses, etc. It's estimated I'm actually using closer to 477 to 500Wh/mi of electricity.
So math time. 500Wh / 1000 = 0.5kWh/mi. 0.5kWh * 280,000 miles = 140,000kWh used. Multiplied by $0.147/kWh retail electric rate in my local area = $20,580 in electric costs over 6 years to do those miles. Divided by 280,000 miles = $0.0735 per mile.
$20,580 divided by $3/gallon = 6,860 gallons of gasoline. That's the equivalent of 40MPG at $3/gallon. 54MPG if gas goes to $4/gallon. 27mpg at $2/gallon.
Electric cars do not fit every situation.
So let's assume I went out and bought a Ecodiesel Jeep Grand Cherokee instead of my Model X (or a Ecodielel RAM 1500 instead of the R1T). I almost bought one, love them and follow those forums still. While towing they get about 16-18mpg and is rated for 25mpg combined and let's say I tow 25% of time with a projected 23mpg average. We'll even go back 2 years ago at $2.80/gallon of diesel. 280,000 miles divided by 23 mpg = 12,173 gallons time $2.80/gallon = $34,086 in a highly optimistic scenario.
The total difference is $13,500.
In my scenario, maintenance was a wash. The jeep would have needed more routine maintenance. But my Tesla required some pretty pricey repairs that most cars seem to have sorted out. They also seem to chew through tires as a much quicker rate. So then it comes down to cost.
$85,000 was what I paid for my MX/ea. The MS were cheaper. - $7,500 federal = $78,000. A Jeep Grand Cherokee Summit Ecodiesel at the time was roughly $58,000. Because of the tax/registration laws in my state ICE cars are taxed, EVs are not so we're looking at more of a $16,000 price difference.
The total electric/gas cost was for 3 cars. This is for 1 of those 3 cars. So as you can see paying retail electric rates, I would not have covered the difference yet.
Electric cars are not for everyone.
Sure there's other things to consider. I got a faster car. It had cool doors. The tech was nice. But based on your post let's focus purely on the financial aspect and this is going to be a brutally honest post. The reality is both served the same purpose, both are quite nice to be inside and I would have enjoyed either one. But the reality is a Ford Lightning Pro is $40,000 and a R1T is $77,000. Both at the end of the day are electric trucks but we all obviously have a preference.
If you consider electric cars in a bubble as a replacement for a gas car, we still haven't reached the point where it makes complete financial sense. It needs help to get there. You'll hear about maintenance savings...I haven't seen that. You'll hear about less running cost (electric vs gas) the numbers don't show that. They sure as heck aren't cheaper either.
But that's where the other pieces came in. AFTER buying my first EV, I found out the incentives for solar are quite generous in my state. I went and bought solar. I now have roughly 45kW of solar power generating roughly 10-11mWh/year. The breakeven point for that solar system turned out to by right at about 5 years. That's to cover home heating, hot water heating, HVAC cooling, well water..all of it. If you notice, that doesn't include the cost to charge the cars. I was able to break even in 5 years on total system cost from that without the cars, which means my actual electric rate is $0.00/kwh per mile driven. It also means I'm straight saved $34,000 in gas costs over 6 years, which more than covers the cost difference between all 3 of my Teslas (compared to a Jeep Grand Cherokee Summit Ecodiesel, a BMW 5 series, and an Audi Q7 while cross shopping).
Your situation may be different..it may not be. Just make sure you take all the pieces of the puzzle into account. EVs aren't quite there in terms of value proposition alone, but if we're making the move it doesn't have to be done by itself.