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Speculation on my part, but I think that Rivian is trying to get the production of the R1T up to reasonable levels before adding the R1S to the mix.

Getting from low-rate initial production to something approaching full-rate production is very difficult under ideal circumstances, an environment that Rivian is not presently operating in. Adding a variant like the R1S into the mix would disrupt production and send things back up the learning curve. My guess is that Rivian is actively choosing to defer R1S production for a few months (6 - 12) until they get the R1T line to an internal target number with stable output.

I also believe that this philosophy will govern the R1T Max, and think that production of that variant will be 6 - 12 months later than forecast. Let's also not forget that Rivan is under contract to deliver 10,000 EDV's to Amazon this year, something that surely is taking up a lot of oxygen at the company.

In light of the foregoing, I don't believe that Rivian is planning internally for R1S deliveries in meaningful numbers until 2023. I also believe that they don't plan for the R1T Max to roll off the production line in serious quantities until late 2023 or early 2024. We may be teased by a handful of early deliveries of both models, which will give the automotive press a chance to review them and the resulting [likely] glowing reviews will enhance Rivian's order backlog.
 

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Speculation on my part, but I think that Rivian is trying to get the production of the R1T up to reasonable levels before adding the R1S to the mix.

Getting from low-rate initial production to something approaching full-rate production is very difficult under ideal circumstances, an environment that Rivian is not presently operating in. Adding a variant like the R1S into the mix would disrupt production and send things back up the learning curve. My guess is that Rivian is actively choosing to defer R1S production for a few months (6 - 12) until they get the R1T line to an internal target number with stable output.

I also believe that this philosophy will govern the R1T Max, and think that production of that variant will be 6 - 12 months later than forecast. Let's also not forget that Rivan is under contract to deliver 10,000 EDV's to Amazon this year, something that surely is taking up a lot of oxygen at the company.

In light of the foregoing, I don't believe that Rivian is planning internally for R1S deliveries in meaningful numbers until 2023. I also believe that they don't plan for the R1T Max to roll off the production line in serious quantities until late 2023 or early 2024. We may be teased by a handful of early deliveries of both models, which will give the automotive press a chance to review them and the resulting [likely] glowing reviews will enhance Rivian's order backlog.
I hope you're wrong on delaying R1S 6-12mos. Thats a significant miss from Rivian, not a delay.
 

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Discussion Starter · #4 ·
Would agree that production needs to start ramping up, but also would expect some sort of update soon if they're going to miss delivery... again. CS is sure I'll get mine in June/July. But I don't have their confidence.
 

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Speculation on my part, but I think that Rivian is trying to get the production of the R1T up to reasonable levels before adding the R1S to the mix.

Getting from low-rate initial production to something approaching full-rate production is very difficult under ideal circumstances, an environment that Rivian is not presently operating in. Adding a variant like the R1S into the mix would disrupt production and send things back up the learning curve. My guess is that Rivian is actively choosing to defer R1S production for a few months (6 - 12) until they get the R1T line to an internal target number with stable output.

I also believe that this philosophy will govern the R1T Max, and think that production of that variant will be 6 - 12 months later than forecast. Let's also not forget that Rivan is under contract to deliver 10,000 EDV's to Amazon this year, something that surely is taking up a lot of oxygen at the company.

In light of the foregoing, I don't believe that Rivian is planning internally for R1S deliveries in meaningful numbers until 2023. I also believe that they don't plan for the R1T Max to roll off the production line in serious quantities until late 2023 or early 2024. We may be teased by a handful of early deliveries of both models, which will give the automotive press a chance to review them and the resulting [likely] glowing reviews will enhance Rivian's order backlog.
What a bunch of hooey! You are whistling in a dark room to hear your own noise. I have been told to expect our R1S in the next 60 days and until a Rivian employee tells me something different I will object to this kind of rumor starting.
 

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What a bunch of hooey! You are whistling in a dark room to hear your own noise. I have been told to expect our R1S in the next 60 days and until a Rivian employee tells me something different I will object to this kind of rumor starting.
Some people are hooked on drama and will create it when they need a fix. Drama comes from conflict. So create conflict with rumors and idle speculation, and get your drama fix.
But be so good as to keep it to yourself unless there is some real world factual basis.
 

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It's all speculation, but here's my guess. I think they might deliver a few R1S employee units before the end of March so they can include them in their 2022 Q1 results. We'll then see established media reviews some time in April, followed by a few more non-employee units perhaps by the end of the month (but in any case before the next investor call). I'll expect them to deliver R1Ss in more significant numbers between May-June (before end of Q2).
 

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Discussion Starter · #8 ·
It's all speculation, but here's my guess. I think they might deliver a few R1S employee units before the end of March so they can include them in their 2022 Q1 results. We'll then see established media reviews some time in April, followed by a few more non-employee units perhaps by the end of the month (but in any case before the next investor call). I'll expect them to deliver R1Ss in more significant numbers between May-June (before end of Q2).
Agreed, probably the most likely outcome. Given how fast they're ramping up the R1t, and CS I spoke to yesterday says they're pumping out R1S' as well, I'm increasingly optimistic.
 
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