Joined
·
2 Posts
Looking at the pre-order trackers, reading released number on productions, promised realistic ramp, I worked out an estimate of when you might expect to be close to getting the anticipated email to start your R1S delivery.
All BS'd for the future assuming their production scales as expected.
I assumed that this pre-order tracker only represented 1/18th of the full reservations ( not everyone is on this site).
I used the 2 released QTR production numbers from R1T, and then assumed some sort of ratio, and a 20% per qtr increase as the qtrs roll on.
The Blue line below estimates where in line you might be in a R1S queue based off your date.
Assuming even distribution ( not including delays like no service center, odd configuration), if they fill sequentially, the green line shows a possible ramp and delivery.
In this method, I was pre-order #31,000 in Jan of 2022. I think I would be in line November of 2023 ( this is what I am telling my wife <:
I am predicting that we will see up to 400 R1S delivered end of this QTR, and another 4600 by EOY
Will be able to refine this obviously with more thought and data after Q3 numbers come in and we see more people confirm their deliveries on the early pre-orders.
Let me know what you all think.
All BS'd for the future assuming their production scales as expected.
I assumed that this pre-order tracker only represented 1/18th of the full reservations ( not everyone is on this site).
I used the 2 released QTR production numbers from R1T, and then assumed some sort of ratio, and a 20% per qtr increase as the qtrs roll on.
The Blue line below estimates where in line you might be in a R1S queue based off your date.
Assuming even distribution ( not including delays like no service center, odd configuration), if they fill sequentially, the green line shows a possible ramp and delivery.
In this method, I was pre-order #31,000 in Jan of 2022. I think I would be in line November of 2023 ( this is what I am telling my wife <:
I am predicting that we will see up to 400 R1S delivered end of this QTR, and another 4600 by EOY
Will be able to refine this obviously with more thought and data after Q3 numbers come in and we see more people confirm their deliveries on the early pre-orders.
Let me know what you all think.
Attachments
-
246.1 KB Views: 66