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Discussion Starter · #1 ·
Looking at the pre-order trackers, reading released number on productions, promised realistic ramp, I worked out an estimate of when you might expect to be close to getting the anticipated email to start your R1S delivery.

All BS'd for the future assuming their production scales as expected.
I assumed that this pre-order tracker only represented 1/18th of the full reservations ( not everyone is on this site).
I used the 2 released QTR production numbers from R1T, and then assumed some sort of ratio, and a 20% per qtr increase as the qtrs roll on.
The Blue line below estimates where in line you might be in a R1S queue based off your date.

Assuming even distribution ( not including delays like no service center, odd configuration), if they fill sequentially, the green line shows a possible ramp and delivery.

In this method, I was pre-order #31,000 in Jan of 2022. I think I would be in line November of 2023 ( this is what I am telling my wife <:
I am predicting that we will see up to 400 R1S delivered end of this QTR, and another 4600 by EOY

Will be able to refine this obviously with more thought and data after Q3 numbers come in and we see more people confirm their deliveries on the early pre-orders.
Let me know what you all think.

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Thank you for putting in the time for such a thoughtful analysis. The number breakdowns seem reasonable...and at the very least, this is something to chew-on in order to help pass the time as we agonizingly await our R1S's. Personally, my hope is that my previous Oct-Dec 2022 timeframe, which shifted to "1st half 2023" back in June, is actually delivered by end of this year. I'm more optimistic now that they've started R1S deliveries and seem to be cranking them out. That, combined with my preorder date of 11/2020, improvements in the production line as well as the expected fall ramp, and the hope that they don't have any major issues, all give me hope for a 2022 delivery! Hopefully my delivery will be in your projected Q4 group! Fingers crossed!
 

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Just for reference we do have R1S vin number 665 assigned already.

There are also several LE orders from 2020 with a October/December delivery estimate.

They are supposed to have some sort of delivery estimate displayed when you log into your account by the end of this month.
 

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Just for reference we do have R1S vin number 665 assigned already.

There are also several LE orders from 2020 with a October/December delivery estimate.

They are supposed to have some sort of delivery estimate displayed when you log into your account by the end of this month.
Good point about the R1S vins...and I forget about the elusive delivery estimates that are supposed to be added to our accounts s00n. Hope they'll add the feature within the next couple of weeks, but I also hope that they deploy reasonable delivery estimates/windows...rather than copy/paste 3-6 month windows like Oct-Dec and First half 2023 on our accounts. Again...fingers crossed!!!
 

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Looking at the pre-order trackers, reading released number on productions, promised realistic ramp, I worked out an estimate of when you might expect to be close to getting the anticipated email to start your R1S delivery.

All BS'd for the future assuming their production scales as expected.
I assumed that this pre-order tracker only represented 1/18th of the full reservations ( not everyone is on this site).
I used the 2 released QTR production numbers from R1T, and then assumed some sort of ratio, and a 20% per qtr increase as the qtrs roll on.
The Blue line below estimates where in line you might be in a R1S queue based off your date.

Assuming even distribution ( not including delays like no service center, odd configuration), if they fill sequentially, the green line shows a possible ramp and delivery.

In this method, I was pre-order #31,000 in Jan of 2022. I think I would be in line November of 2023 ( this is what I am telling my wife <:
I am predicting that we will see up to 400 R1S delivered end of this QTR, and another 4600 by EOY

Will be able to refine this obviously with more thought and data after Q3 numbers come in and we see more people confirm their deliveries on the early pre-orders.
Let me know what you all think.

View attachment 7801

View attachment 7802
Its all nice and impressive but the thing is....

The underlying assumption is that Rivian will deliver based on FIFO logic for order fulfillment.
It is clear that that's not the case and should not be.

I know people have the sense of fairness to say, in the order of which the reservations were made. From Rivian's perspective, that's not what makes sense for the business - both from servicing and marketing point of view. They have said multiple times that it will be based on location and other considerations.

So I hold the same date, 11/21 R1S reservation. Between the cancellations due to alternatives and recession, I fully expect my vehicle to be available next summer at the latest, given where I live.
 

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Discussion Starter · #6 ·
Agree, 100% FIFO is not going to happen nor logical for the rollout.
I did not sort out or judge data based on config or major metro attached to a SC.
If there is a published lists with Service Center locations, I could try and bias people up and down the list.
Would take quite a bit more Python time.

Just doing this for fun and trying to tease out what other peoples perspectives are.
I would think your 11/21 would put you about #23,000 in the FIFO queue, and 10/2023.
With a preferred area + things to consider like cancellations and recession yet a summer release for your timeframe I would hope is very probable. Q2-Q3-2023. I hope sooner<:

Is it a known fact that VIN's will be sequential for the R1S and not mixed with R1T, and not skipping digits ( less QA/Shipping issues)?
 

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This is a really good projection based on everyone's best assumptions. The one item I am most curious about is the breakdown of model production ramping from 0% to 50%. With people who ordered in 2022 getting trucks and people waiting 4 years for an SUV does anyone think they will push higher than 50% for a short time to clear out some of the oldest preorders? That would potentially move a 12/2020 order like me to 1Q 2023 or maybe at the tail end of 2022. Wishful thinking - I know.

On the other side - I don't see a huge risk of them continuing to push more trucks than SUVs at this point due to both customer waits and ramping competition. Plus they need to get through ALL of the pre-March people so they can stop losing so much money on every vehicle.
 

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Agree, 100% FIFO is not going to happen nor logical for the rollout.
I did not sort out or judge data based on config or major metro attached to a SC.
If there is a published lists with Service Center locations, I could try and bias people up and down the list.
Would take quite a bit more Python time.

Just doing this for fun and trying to tease out what other peoples perspectives are.
I would think your 11/21 would put you about #23,000 in the FIFO queue, and 10/2023.
With a preferred area + things to consider like cancellations and recession yet a summer release for your timeframe I would hope is very probable. Q2-Q3-2023. I hope sooner<:

Is it a known fact that VIN's will be sequential for the R1S and not mixed with R1T, and not skipping digits ( less QA/Shipping issues)?
VINs have a set sequence of letters/numbers at the beginning to identify the car.

For example:
Tesla Model Y: 7SAY
Tesla Model 3: 5YJ3

That fourth digit tells you what make the car is. I would hope that's unique enough to use the serial numbers at the end, digits 12-17, to be sequential per trim.
 
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