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2023 should be Rivian’s breakout year. You could compare it to Tesla in 2017. Once the Model 3 production kinks were worked out the rest was history. Mine is an early 2018 and I still have it. The R1s will do very well!
 

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2023 should be Rivian’s breakout year. You could compare it to Tesla in 2017. Once the Model 3 production kinks were worked out the rest was history. Mine is an early 2018 and I still have it. The R1s will do very well!
I think that's too soon. When R2 starts shipping, then you can compare to the Model 3 moment for Rivian. Maybe you can think of 2nd half of 2022 on similar to Model X moment with Tesla.
 

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Are they on pace to deliver a LOT more trucks this year?

Have they cracked 100k reservations?

R1S deliveries?

What do you expect to hear?
Will reaffirm 25K total delivery

They probably have cracked 100k but may not show that in backlog - they also reduce delivered vehicle number from backlog so we'll have to see. Important thing is the reservation rate.

R1S deliveries have already started - I've seen couple of paper plate on the road (I'm sure they are to employees but Rivian claimed they delivered R1S last year - only 2 to themselves)

How many BPA were signed in the last 24 hours.
 

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I think that's too soon. When R2 starts shipping, then you can compare to the Model 3 moment for Rivian. Maybe you can think of 2nd half of 2022 on similar to Model X moment with Tesla.
Great point. I purchased the Model X in 2016 to get to the head of the line for a Model 3. The R2s will be like the Model 3 in terms of a lower price option. The 2016 Model X 90D was over 100K. I sold it when I purchased the 3 since I wanted a true SUV for a second vehicle to replace my Suburban. The Model X is not an suv.
Can’t wait to get the R1S.
 

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Discussion Starter · #12 ·
Interesting to learn about the commercial business side and how the commercial vehicle management platform that the vehicles come with is a subscription element. That means a recurring revenue stream.
 

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good overview here

Fck
View attachment 7451


Are they on pace to deliver a LOT more trucks this year?

Have they cracked 100k reservations?

R1S deliveries?

What do you expect to hear?
Underwhelmed with the lack of details. Would like to see the number of R1T, R1S, and Amazonmobiles produced and delivered, by type, and compared to Q1.
 

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The preorder rate is dying out. They will slash R1 production in a couple of years and focus almost exclusively on the fleet vans
 

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That's a strange statement and strange conclusion. What makes you think the "preorder rate is dying out"? And let's say you're right, why do you think that implies that demand for the R1 is disappearing?

We don't have all that much information about the number of preorders, but a quick look shows this:
  • 11/2018 preorders opened - 0 before this date
  • 10/1/2021 S-1 filed - 48,000 at this point - that's ~1,400/month over 34 months.
  • 12/15/2021 71,000 at this point - huge jump due to the IPO and publicity surrounding it
  • 3/1/2022 about 80,000 prior to the price increase - that's ~3,600/month since the previous number
  • 3/31/2022 end of first quarter - 90,000 at this point
  • 6/31/2022 end of second quarter - 98,000 at this point - about 2,500/month currently
The biggest jump was because of the IPO. The price increase (with people cancelling) had no discernible effect on the rate of preorders.

IF preorder rates have slowed, then IMO the most likely reason would be the higher prices for new preorders plus the known long wait time for delivery for new preorders. However note that a full 20% of preorders (that's about 20,000 preorders!) have been placed in the 5 months AFTER the price increase ... that tells me that there's still huge demand even at the higher price.

Rivian has just as many R1 vehicles on order as it does RDV. I suspect the consumer vehicle is going to have a higher margin and be more profitable for Rivian - the RDV is a long term play to establish and capture that market. Rivian wouldn't be building a new plant for the R2 vehicles if it were pivoting to just producing commercial vehicles.
 

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You literally documented the rate dying out. I may seem overly pessimistic on this forum but that's how you end up right when it comes to Rivian.
 
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