[DrBebo]

Figure it would fit in better in this forum, but if I'm not mistaken, Rivian has only delivered like 900 trucks to customers and have made like 1400?

Realistically, do you see your estimated delivery date keeping on track or pushing back a year or two?

 

[CommodoreAmiga]

Per their Shareholder letter, they say they've produced 2,425 vehicles as of March 8, 2022.

 

[TessP100D]

Per their Shareholder letter, they say they've produced 2,425 vehicles as of March 8, 2022.

Rivian is a mess and a joke. I just don’t know how they survive this disaster.

 

[JacobH]

What I heard on this evening’s earnings call is they expect to produce 25,000 vehicles in 2022, but noted they could produce 50,000 if they were not forecasting continued challenges with certain suppliers this year. RJ noted they have run the line for the R1T in Normal at higher speed for periods of time to demonstrate they could run fast if they had the volume of components they need.

I think the slow ramp of production is very frustrating and costly, but Rivian does build a great product and I don’t think it is a “disaster.”

 

[TessP100D]

What I heard on this evening’s earnings call is they expect to produce 25,000 vehicles in 2022, but noted they could produce 50,000 if they were not forecasting continued challenges with certain suppliers this year. RJ noted they have run the line for the R1T in Normal at higher speed for periods of time to demonstrate they could run fast if they had the volume of components they need.

I think the slow ramp of production is very frustrating and costly, but Rivian does build a great product and I don’t think it is a “disaster.”

I hope,your right, but I’m keeping my eyes open for the K-Marts specials

 

[RITVT]

Tess, what is your delivery date again???

 

[Junkanoo]

I listened to the conference call and it was awful. RJ was in full turbo non-answer answer mode. Like ... when an analyst asked referring to RJ's answer to current production ... "what does 2X last year's peak exit rate mean?" I kid you not.

 

[roguenode]

I haven't had a chance to listen to the call or review the financials but will over the weekend. Anyone take a look? How is their cash burn compared to reserves and expected income over the next year?

 

[TessP100D]

Tess, what is your delivery date again???

Who can know? Max Pack or nothing. if they actually build them… we will see

 

[TessP100D]

I listened to the conference call and it was awful. RJ was in full turbo non-answer answer mode. Like ... when an analyst asked referring to RJ's answer to current production ... "what does 2X last year's peak exit rate mean?" I kid you not.

I realize this is a pro RivIan and sometimes bling faith flowing but this whole thing looks bad. Other sites are ripping RJ apart.

 

[Szimmer624]

Did anyone notice the switch to new batteries that will drop the standard range to 260, while offering a slower charge curve?

following Tesla’s move.

 

[BlackH20]

I realize this is a pro RivIan and sometimes bling faith flowing, but this whole thing looks bad. Other sites are ripping RJ apart.

"
The decision we took was to ultimately honor the original configuration pricing, which wasn't due to any cancellations but rather was really because we have such a focus on our brand and the relationship we have with customers. They're -- this wasn't driven by some mass cancellation, but rather the recognition that the brand we're building is the foundation is the platform upon, which ultimately we're going to be selling millions of different vehicles per year across different vehicle types and of course, across different markets. And these early customers are such a critical part of what we're building as an organization."

So this sounds like a load of crap. The questions were softballs; they lost billions of dollars of value since a 24-hour decision emailed to all the customers who DID NOT FOCUS ON RELATIONSHIPS from Customer Service to one focused on Customer Service and Relationships 24 hours later when the orders were canceled. The stock had fallen like a rock ever since. More billions and billions lost. Did the CEO not know that Customer Service was jacking up the price with all their relationship customers? Not sure if I see an SUV coming out of this company to my driveway in several years. Supply problems, no Amazon delivery vans on the road (just test vans), no wiring harnesses from Mexico, the Head Of Sales and Marketing gets fired (no questions there), the Chief Operating Officer is gone after the IPO? May 25K, or a third of the reservations projected to go out this year? No SUVs delivered except a prototype? See any in one reviewer's hands yet? And then we open with about a prayer for Ukraine? Nobody gave a damn about Ukraine 6 weeks ago during the Olympics; not it's everyone's excuse. Rivian is mining battery ingredients in places far nastier than Russia for labor (Congo). So many problems in this concise call. Look, these suppliers mentioned repeatedly sign contracts; let's say you are one of them; are you going to sign with Telsa, VW Group, Volvo, BMW, Ford, GM, Korean Manfucatureer, etc., or Rivian who has one plant and two lines? You better see some heavily experienced auto executives roll into this company fast; they need help, and not sure a bunch of stock options will attract the professionals required to turn this around in 2-3 years out. Now a quote from Ford CEO, "Ford CEO Jim Farley stated that the chip shortage will likely continue to impact the industry through 2023. Remember, 103 F-150 pickups are sold per hour, 24 hours a day, seven days a week. Ford has sold 1.7 trucks per minute, every minute of the day, for the past three years. Any supplier is going to be pretty loyal to Ford.

 

[sciencegeek]

I listened to the call until 2:45 CA time (i.e., 45 min, well into the Q&A). I was encouraged in a number of ways.
1. Supply chain issues are hampering them for now, but that's going to resolve. (Paradoxically it may help them because all other players have the same problems, and in the mean time they can get more capacity on line)
2. Normal factory is capable of decent production numbers
3. After price hike, rate of new orders was the same as before
4. The tone of the questions from the institutional investors was respectful and while the questions were probing in the expected directions (production ramp-up, COGS, supply chain, pricing) the Rivian team gave plausible answers given the challenging environment.

I might buy a few hundred shares tomorrow if it further tanks (or at least doesn't jump), throwing my hat into an admittedly speculative but ultimately winning market, because what I heard today was broadly reassuring for the long run.

[EDIT: BlackH20 and my post hit at the same time. I'm really interested in an educated discussion contrasting our perspectives. Honestly!]

 

[SANZCO2]

Rivian is a mess and a joke. I just don’t know how they survive this disaster.

You do realize they are 200 units shy of Tesla‘s 2012 2650 number (started deliveries June 2012) with 3 more weeks in the quarter? They would also beat Tesla’s first full year (qtrs 3-6) of 22k by 3k in their first full year (qtrs 2-5) if they pass 25k.

Granted Tesla was constrained by funding but they also did not have to fight the worst global supply chain we have seen.

 

[Angus]

I haven't looked yet, any word on if they are running on schedule for delivery? Seems like we have been seeing more and more non employee deliveries, but we have still seen almost no news on the R1S.

 

[SANZCO2]

I haven't looked yet, any word on if they are running on schedule for delivery? Seems like we have been seeing more and more non employee deliveries, but we have still seen almost no news on the R1S.

They are projecting 25k deliveries this year. Ramp is going well but have supply chain issues where a few of their suppliers can’t ramp as quickly and causes them to throttle the lines. They say they have a rate right now where they could do 50k this year if the supply chain was not an issue.

 

[BlackH20]

I listened to the call until 2:45 CA time (i.e., 45 min, well into the Q&A). I was encouraged in a number of ways.
1. Supply chain issues are hampering them for now, but that's going to resolve. (Paradoxically, it may help them because all other players have the same problems, and in the meantime, they can get more capacity online)
2. Normal factory is capable of decent production numbers
3. After the price hike, the rate of new orders was the same as before
4. The tone of the questions from the institutional investors was respectful. While the questions were probing in the expected directions (production ramp-up, COGS, supply chain, pricing), the Rivian team gave plausible answers given the challenging environment.

I might buy a few hundred shares tomorrow if it different tanks (or at least doesn't jump), throwing my hat into an admittedly speculative but ultimately winning market because what I heard today was broadly reassuring for the long run.

[EDIT: BlackH20 and my post hit at the same time. Honestly!] I'm interested in an academic discussion contrasting our perspectives.

From Mckinsey and Company, "The typical contracts for sourcing parts in the auto industry differ significantly from other industries, which are more often governed by long-term binding agreements (so-called take-or-pay deals) and provide semiconductor suppliers with purchase orders that go well beyond six to 12 months. Amid an auto supply chain that is complex and often heavily outsourced, the chip-sourcing commitment cycle for the auto industry, however, tends to be shorter-term—especially concerning binding purchase commitments on the order of a few weeks to a few months. While the auto industry has had a good reputation for stable demand in the past, semiconductor manufacturers are now committed to more conventional, longer-term contracts from other fast-acting industries. In the short term, we don't see any indication that the current supply and demand imbalance for semiconductors will resolve. That's because typical lead times for semiconductor production can exceed four months for the products that are already well established in a manufacturing line. Increasing capacity by moving a product to another manufacturing site usually adds another six months (even in existing plants). Switching to a different manufacturer (for example, changing foundries) typically adds another year or more because the chip's design requires alterations to match the specific manufacturing processes of the new manufacturing partner. Additionally, chips can contain manufacturer-specific intellectual property that may require alternations or licensing. Also, alternative suppliers in the auto industry must go through a lengthy and complex qualification process." End of quotes from auto-market analysis from McKinsey. Remember, GM, Ford, and most other auto manufacturers are much more vertically integrated due to their long history. Due to long-standing agreements with their OEM suppliers, they make their batteries (General Motors) make their chips from spun-off companies Delphi Corporation (GM) and stockpile inventories. Many of these companies saw a 50% decrease in auto sales, with the start of Covid now having the reverse. More prominent manufacturers increased inventory significantly. Rivian does not have that capacity, with only one plant, two lines, making three different vehicles, and a start-up. I wish it weren't true, but I would not expect an SUV from Rivian until late 2023. Remember, they are having trouble even getting basic wiring harnesses from Mexico; as stated in today's conference call, we are not even talking chips here with many supply issues.

 

[TessP100D]

Did anyone notice the switch to new batteries that will drop the standard range to 260, while offering a slower charge curve?

following Tesla’s move.

No I did not see that. Where is that revealed?

 

[TessP100D]

"
The decision we took was to ultimately honor the original configuration pricing, which wasn't due to any cancellations but rather was really because we have such a focus on our brand and the relationship we have with customers. They're -- this wasn't driven by some mass cancellation, but rather the recognition that the brand we're building is the foundation is the platform upon, which ultimately we're going to be selling millions of different vehicles per year across different vehicle types and of course, across different markets. And these early customers are such a critical part of what we're building as an organization."

So this sounds like a load of crap. The questions were softballs; they lost billions of dollars of value since a 24-hour decision emailed to all the customers who DID NOT FOCUS ON RELATIONSHIPS from Customer Service to one focused on Customer Service and Relationships 24 hours later when the orders were canceled. The stock had fallen like a rock ever since. More billions and billions lost. Did the CEO not know that Customer Service was jacking up the price with all their relationship customers? Not sure if I see an SUV coming out of this company to my driveway in several years. Supply problems, no Amazon delivery vans on the road (just test vans), no wiring harnesses from Mexico, the Head Of Sales and Marketing gets fired (no questions there), the Chief Operating Officer is gone after the IPO? May 25K, or a third of the reservations projected to go out this year? No SUVs delivered except a prototype? See any in one reviewer's hands yet? And then we open with about a prayer for Ukraine? Nobody gave a damn about Ukraine 6 weeks ago during the Olympics; not it's everyone's excuse. Rivian is mining battery ingredients in places far nastier than Russia for labor (Congo). So many problems in this concise call. Look, these suppliers mentioned repeatedly sign contracts; let's say you are one of them; are you going to sign with Telsa, VW Group, Volvo, BMW, Ford, GM, Korean Manfucatureer, etc., or Rivian who has one plant and two lines? You better see some heavily experienced auto executives roll into this company fast; they need help, and not sure a bunch of stock options will attract the professionals required to turn this around in 2-3 years out. Now a quote from Ford CEO, "Ford CEO Jim Farley stated that the chip shortage will likely continue to impact the industry through 2023. Remember, 103 F-150 pickups are sold per hour, 24 hours a day, seven days a week. Ford has sold 1.7 trucks per minute, every minute of the day, for the past three years. Any supplier is going to be pretty loyal to Ford.

Well said.

 

[TessP100D]

I listened to the call until 2:45 CA time (i.e., 45 min, well into the Q&A). I was encouraged in a number of ways.
1. Supply chain issues are hampering them for now, but that's going to resolve. (Paradoxically it may help them because all other players have the same problems, and in the mean time they can get more capacity on line)
2. Normal factory is capable of decent production numbers
3. After price hike, rate of new orders was the same as before
4. The tone of the questions from the institutional investors was respectful and while the questions were probing in the expected directions (production ramp-up, COGS, supply chain, pricing) the Rivian team gave plausible answers given the challenging environment.

I might buy a few hundred shares tomorrow if it further tanks (or at least doesn't jump), throwing my hat into an admittedly speculative but ultimately winning market, because what I heard today was broadly reassuring for the long run.

[EDIT: BlackH20 and my post hit at the same time. I'm really interested in an educated discussion contrasting our perspectives. Honestly!]

Please be careful on the investing side. I don’t want to see anybody lose money speculating on such a risky business.