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The biggest issue: They need to produce two cars at a pace where they do not lose this window of opportunity

I read this and was thinking, "Two cars a day? Two cars a minute?" Until I realized they meant two models.
 

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And in reality, the R1T and R1S share so much that it's really not like two independent lines for two independent models. They share motors, wheels, tires, seats, batteries, lights, console hardware/software, paint, etc. Sure they need to be assembled independently, but the supply of components going into each line is going to be substantially the same. Plus, they haven't really geared up the R1S production yet, so it's mostly R1T.

But "investors" are mostly irrational, so none of these "conclusions" about how much investors are "fretting" means much. Let's look at Tesla, for example. Rivian produced 1000 vs a target of 1200 for 2021. And that's enough to tank the stock? But not only did Tesla NOT meet their target of Cybertrucks for 2021 (despite Elon being the master of manufacturing, having learned the hard way through years of experience...), it's unlikely they'll produce any Cybertrucks in 2022 or maybe even 2023. And who knows what their range/price/speed/load capacity/etc. will look like at that point. But Tesla isn't taking a hit for that ... Irrational.

I think a lot of "investors" are spooked by their own shadow, and make drastic moves based on gossip and rumor rather than facts.

And I think that a lot of people, journalists included, are lazy about their research. They take what is given to them, rather than seeking out data for themselves. I see a huge focus on the Lightning in the media, and little or no mention of the Rivian a lot of times. Last fall I saw an entire 10 minute story on the Lightining on network news, with no mention of the competition, back when Ford was still planning on producing only 15,000 or so in 2022 (which is double what they had previously announced). I see this as Ford handing out PR packages to media, and the media rebroadcasting what they are given. Like a free commercial. Now, the Lightning is a story, because the F150 is the best selling vehicle in the US, but it's a shallow story, since it's so little work to say yeah, they're going to be able to sell quite a few Lightnings. There is no critical analysis - no one is saying wait, Ford is already offering a F-150 hybrid, but that's not selling very well at all - maybe the Lightning will be the same? I can't say either way, but I think there's an argument to be had that the main F-150 demographic is not composed largely of tree huggers who think meat is murder and climate change is real. In other words, not a demographic that is going to switch to an EV F-150 just because it is an EV. They are going to want to see that what they get is worth the added price. And there IS an added price. Best case IMO is that Ford keeps its market share of pickup trucks by making an EV F-150. If they didn't, their market share would be gradually eroded by competitors like Rivian and Tesla and even the 2 other big 3. There is no way that Ford will actually increase their market share significantly - the best they can hope for is to spend billions in R&D to keep their place on top.

I personally am willing to give Rivian a chance, because they've already done something that many have tried to do and most have failed to do - produce a brand-new vehicle with a brand-new company and actually deliver something. (I saw two in a parking lot just yesterday (they exist and are real), and I've test driven one - they are awesome!) Think of all the other companies that have crashed and burned before even reaching this point.
 

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The article seemed fairly well balanced and accurately reported known details.
Totally agree. And what are the options for anyone who wants an electric truck and cancels their Rivian reservation? Answer: some other auto maker's waiting list for a much less impressive car. Nonetheless, the Rivian team has built an incredible product, but cannot afford to rest on their laurels.
 

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And in reality, the R1T and R1S share so much that it's really not like two independent lines for two independent models. They share motors, wheels, tires, seats, batteries, lights, console hardware/software, paint, etc. Sure they need to be assembled independently, but the supply of components going into each line is going to be substantially the same. Plus, they haven't really geared up the R1S production yet, so it's mostly R1T.

But "investors" are mostly irrational, so none of these "conclusions" about how much investors are "fretting" means much. Let's look at Tesla, for example. Rivian produced 1000 vs a target of 1200 for 2021. And that's enough to tank the stock? But not only did Tesla NOT meet their target of Cybertrucks for 2021 (despite Elon being the master of manufacturing, having learned the hard way through years of experience...), it's unlikely they'll produce any Cybertrucks in 2022 or maybe even 2023. And who knows what their range/price/speed/load capacity/etc. will look like at that point. But Tesla isn't taking a hit for that ... Irrational.

I think a lot of "investors" are spooked by their own shadow, and make drastic moves based on gossip and rumor rather than facts.

And I think that a lot of people, journalists included, are lazy about their research. They take what is given to them, rather than seeking out data for themselves. I see a huge focus on the Lightning in the media, and little or no mention of the Rivian a lot of times. Last fall I saw an entire 10 minute story on the Lightining on network news, with no mention of the competition, back when Ford was still planning on producing only 15,000 or so in 2022 (which is double what they had previously announced). I see this as Ford handing out PR packages to media, and the media rebroadcasting what they are given. Like a free commercial. Now, the Lightning is a story, because the F150 is the best selling vehicle in the US, but it's a shallow story, since it's so little work to say yeah, they're going to be able to sell quite a few Lightnings. There is no critical analysis - no one is saying wait, Ford is already offering a F-150 hybrid, but that's not selling very well at all - maybe the Lightning will be the same? I can't say either way, but I think there's an argument to be had that the main F-150 demographic is not composed largely of tree huggers who think meat is murder and climate change is real. In other words, not a demographic that is going to switch to an EV F-150 just because it is an EV. They are going to want to see that what they get is worth the added price. And there IS an added price. Best case IMO is that Ford keeps its market share of pickup trucks by making an EV F-150. If they didn't, their market share would be gradually eroded by competitors like Rivian and Tesla and even the 2 other big 3. There is no way that Ford will actually increase their market share significantly - the best they can hope for is to spend billions in R&D to keep their place on top.

I personally am willing to give Rivian a chance, because they've already done something that many have tried to do and most have failed to do - produce a brand-new vehicle with a brand-new company and actually deliver something. (I saw two in a parking lot just yesterday (they exist and are real), and I've test driven one - they are awesome!) Think of all the other companies that have crashed and burned before even reaching this point.
Stop with the Tesla references. Rivian is NOT Tesla.
Tesla is the words leader in EV’s. Rivian may be gone in 6 months.

geez. I’m so tired of the Tesla comparisons.
 

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The comparison is not between the companies, or between the vehicles, but between investor reaction to similar events at two different companies in the same space. And it's a fair comparison to illustrate the irrationality of speculative investors, which is what I was doing. Tesla in many ways epitomizes the irrationality of the market.

Rivian missed delivery projections by a bit, but they did deliver. Tesla also projected deliveries for the Cybertruck in 2021, but they're going to miss that by years. However Tesla should know better - they're the experts - and Rivian should be given some slack - they've never done this before. I'm not saying that Rivian is comparable or should be comparable to Tesla in value - they're clearly still orders of magnitude different at this point - but the fact that the "market" valued Rivian so highly initially was irrational, just as the fact that Tesla can do no wrong is irrational.

Tesla gets a pass on lots of things because people are irrationally attached to Tesla to a fault. Tesla is near the top for owner satisfaction, despite being near the bottom on reliability and build quality. (Jeep is similar, but it's more extreme with Tesla).

If a tech company failed to deliver in such a spectacular fashion as Tesla with the Cybertruck, it might even go under. And a tech company that shows any sort of sag in demand is ravaged by the market (e.g. Facebook recently). It's because the "value" is based on an almost delusional hope of exponential growth rather than something real. When the slightest bit of reality sets in, speculators panic and overreact.

My problem with the reporting was that it was front-loaded with opinion and hearsay, along with lack of attribution (the old "people are saying" routine). The first few paragraphs were filled with negative opinion keywords like loses, fret, failed, worried, trouble, anxiety, failure, and struggling. Once you get to the last third of the article, you see some pretty even headed quotes, but the stage has been set by then, and the takeaway from a cursory read is that Rivian is on the verge of failure. This sounds like it's coming straight out of the mouth of a short term speculator. I would be more impressed if there were actually things in there which we didn't know, as opposed to just an apparent attempt to incite fear in the market.
 

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Agree with everything you say O.h, except with the speculation that the author is attempting to incite fear in the market (or that it's a "scathing piece" as the OP says). We may know all these things because we follow the company (and no I don't own stock), but the piece is not for us .. it's for general readership, and for that it's decent journalism.
 

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as opposed to just an apparent attempt to incite fear in the market.
Yeah, I don't agree with what I said here either. I didn't mean to imply that this was some sort of stock manipulation scheme. If I had put more effort into the sentence perhaps it would have been closer to what I meant, which is that the writing seems to be somewhat sensationalized to catch an audience, because who really is going to read a story that says Rivian has strong points and weak points and only time will tell whether they succeed? Yawn, and self-evident. IMO that sort of thing should be toned down by the editor, because real journalism shouldn't be opinion based, and real analysis should present facts to back up conclusions, not just spread gossip.
 

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The market has reached an inflection point where manufacturers no longer have to convince people to buy EVs with features, but instead they have to try to meet the rapidly escalating demand before this initial wave subsides.

Tesla realized this and focused on new factories and cranking out model Ys . They prioritized that over spending constrained resources on brining new models to market. That may not play well with the fans and the forums but it’s the cold reality of how to become the dominant manufacturer and capitalize on all the hard work they did over the last ten years.

Rivian is the same - the demand is there and then some - they need to get to volume as fast as possible to start making money and ride this wave. Right now everything else is irrelevant if they aren’t going to miss the chance to sell 50k cars a year

Comparisons to Tesla’s ramps on the model S don’t matter- that was a different time and place. The Ev market has changed for ever
 
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