Starting out at 300/month would be a pathetic production rate. I certainly hope that is not the case. That would be less than 5000 in 2021, even if they ramped up to 1000 in December. GM built 24000 Bolts in 2017, the first year, that was 2000/month.
My order number was right at 10000, and I got passed up because I did not order an LE, nor do I want the glass roof. If GM starts Hummer production in October at 2000/month they will beat Rivian to my driveway.
Chevy Bolt production to the Rivian R1T/S is not really a like to like comparison.
Bolt production may have started from scratch, but Chevy was already making dozens of other models and churning our thousands of cars from multiple manufacturing sites each day. They were certainly in much better position to start Bolt production aggressively and ramp it up much more quickly if needed than is a start-up company entering the world of mass-market automobiles.
Granted, 300 per month is low, but Rivian's current production rate for anything is essentially zero, so getting to even 10 cars per day in Month 1 seems relatively ambitious. My assumption was that they would incrementally increase production numbers each week, and get to 1,000 per month at the end of Year 1. My further assumption was that total production for the first year would be about 6,600 units and that virtually all of the Year 1 production would be Launch Editions, split something like 80:20 R1T to R1S. I don't know how many orders Rivian got for Launch Editions, but think that 5 or 6 thousand may be a good guess, meaning essentially all of the first year deliveries will be of the same model.
This makes a lot of sense to me. It allows a new company at a new factory with a new design to build only one thing for 12 months, giving Rivian the opportunity to fine-tune their production processes before attempting add other configurations to the mix. Starting in Year 2, I'd expect that Rivian will introduce those other configurations into their production line and also continue to increase rate until they get to their target, which I'm assuming is about 1,700/month (the 20,000 units per year that some reports referenced). This would mean Year 2 production is on the order of 16,000 or so.
If my estimates are correct, by the end of 2023, Rivian will have delivered around 23,000 units, representing about 65% of their pre-orders. At 1,700 per month, Rivian would deliver all 35,000 pre-orders by mid-late 2023. I don't really know where I am in the pre-order queue: By the time I put my order in (Spring 2020), Rivian had changed their system and there was no way to determine your place. I'm just guessing that there are at least 25,000 orders ahead of mine which means that the R1T Max I ordered will get made sometime in early 2023.
While I don't think the Tesla CT or the GM Hummer will beat the R1T to market, I do think it's likely that the production numbers of both will be greater than the R1T. Your chance of getting either vehicle by say 2022 may in fact be better that of getting a Rivian by that date. That may or may not be a bad thing for Rivian. The long wait for pre-orders (as much as 4 or even 5 years if your pre-order is the R1S and you want the Max pack) may drive some potential buyers away to the CT and Hummer. That may not necessarily be bad for Rivian though.
If demand for BEV's remains high (as seems very likely), there will be plenty of customers to replace those who cancel their pre-orders, and those new buyers won't have to wait nearly as long for their Rivian. It also gives Rivan a chance to be the company with a superior offering in terms of quality. While GM has made great strides in QC in recent years, their track record with new vehicles is not particularly enviable. Tesla's quality control, or more accurately, their lack of QC, is legendary and growing. There is a compelling argument to be made for the "go-slow" production approach that allows a new company like Rivian to ensure their vehicles come to market largely trouble-free.
With only $1,000 tied up, I'm OK with taking a wait and see approach. My Rivian order is to replace a 2008 vehicle, and I may or may not be able to wait until 2023 for a replacement though.
