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Discussion Starter #1
We all know that the first deliveries will happen in June 2021. I am assuming Rivian will have a few (hundred?) or a few (thousand?) stockpiled so that there will be several deliveries in June. Anybody have an idea? Also what are the daily, weekly or monthly targets for production?

Based upon 5000 vehicles a month? Most people won't see their Rivians until 2022. :unsure:(y)
 

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Parts will be stockpiled, in correct proportions, but not completed vehicles. Most vehicles run though a production line in 2 days or less, 1 day for the big guys, Toyota claims 18 hours. Once they reach the end of the line they are ready for delivery. I cannot say exactly how many will be produced in a single day, but once production really starts there will be deliveries ready at the end of each work day. Those will move to trains or trucks to get them on there way to owners for delivery. Because of the initial low volumes, that will be the tricky part to get small quantities to different regions in the country. I suspect they will sequence production based on where the deliveries are going. I can tell you that in Phoenix there is a train depot just for automobiles and every manufacturer unloads rail cars there, then they are put on trucks to go to the local dealers. It could end up that Rivian just puts them on trucks to move them across the country in small numbers.

There could be gaps or stoppages due to unexpected issues, which are likely for a startup like Rivian.

My best guess for initial production is 1000/month, or about 50/day (assumes 5 day work week), then ramp that up slightly each month.
 

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Discussion Starter #3
Yeah I believe your production prediction is close. That means a lot of people are gonna wait a long time for theirs, not me. Nov 27, 2018 order.
 

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I can just imagine the first 10,000 new owners wanting to descend on the Normal plant for their pickup pick-up on the first day so they can avoid a delivery delay! 🤔

Taking delivery at the Normal plant may be limited by the size of the team Rivian can put together for processing paperwork, payment, and vehicle orientation! How many vehicles roll off the average/typical dealer lot per day?

I would love to take a road trip to Normal, but not sure it would actually save time on taking delivery...
 

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The reports that I read state that Rivian expects production to be about 20.000 per year, but that certainly won't be what they make in year one.

It took Tesla about 10 years to get to 200,000 cars, which is an average of 20k per year. From what I can tell, it looks like production was quite low in their early years (2010 - 2015), getting to about 5,000 per month in 2015 and around 30,000/month when the Fed tax credit phased out at the end of 2019. I would expect something similar from Rivian, though possibly with a faster ramp up after initial production start since unlike Tesla, they have some leadership with an automobile industry background.

So Rivan will make perhaps 300/month for the first few months, gradually rising to 1,000/mo at the end of production year one. If production can increase by 50% by the end of year two (1,500/mo) and continue along at that rate of increase, Rivian could get to their apparent goal of 20,000 per year (1,667/month) early in 2023.

If we assume that Rivian has about 35,000 pre-orders – a number I've seen in a few places now - that would mean that all the initial orders will be filled sometime in 2024. I'm nearer the end of pre-order line, with perhaps 25,000 ahead of me. By my crude calculations, that means delivery of my R1T with the Max package in early 2023.
 

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Discussion Starter #8
Yeah, great information. I was afraid of something like this happening. Most people won't see theirs until 2022 and longer.
 

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The reports that I read state that Rivian expects production to be about 20.000 per year, but that certainly won't be what they make in year one.

It took Tesla about 10 years to get to 200,000 cars, which is an average of 20k per year. From what I can tell, it looks like production was quite low in their early years (2010 - 2015), getting to about 5,000 per month in 2015 and around 30,000/month when the Fed tax credit phased out at the end of 2019. I would expect something similar from Rivian, though possibly with a faster ramp up after initial production start since unlike Tesla, they have some leadership with an automobile industry background.

So Rivan will make perhaps 300/month for the first few months, gradually rising to 1,000/mo at the end of production year one. If production can increase by 50% by the end of year two (1,500/mo) and continue along at that rate of increase, Rivian could get to their apparent goal of 20,000 per year (1,667/month) early in 2023.

If we assume that Rivian has about 35,000 pre-orders – a number I've seen in a few places now - that would mean that all the initial orders will be filled sometime in 2024. I'm nearer the end of pre-order line, with perhaps 25,000 ahead of me. By my crude calculations, that means delivery of my R1T with the Max package in early 2023.
Starting out at 300/month would be a pathetic production rate. I certainly hope that is not the case. That would be less than 5000 in 2021, even if they ramped up to 1000 in December. GM built 24000 Bolts in 2017, the first year, that was 2000/month.

My order number was right at 10000, and I got passed up because I did not order an LE, nor do I want the glass roof. If GM starts Hummer production in October at 2000/month they will beat Rivian to my driveway.
 

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Discussion Starter #11
We all know that the first deliveries will happen in June 2021. I am assuming Rivian will have a few (hundred?) or a few (thousand?) stockpiled so that there will be several deliveries in June. Anybody have an idea? Also what are the daily, weekly or monthly targets for production?

Based upon 5000 vehicles a month? Most people won't see their Rivians until 2022. :unsure:(y)
The reports that I read state that Rivian expects production to be about 20.000 per year, but that certainly won't be what they make in year one.

It took Tesla about 10 years to get to 200,000 cars, which is an average of 20k per year. From what I can tell, it looks like production was quite low in their early years (2010 - 2015), getting to about 5,000 per month in 2015 and around 30,000/month when the Fed tax credit phased out at the end of 2019. I would expect something similar from Rivian, though possibly with a faster ramp up after initial production start since unlike Tesla, they have some leadership with an automobile industry background.

So Rivan will make perhaps 300/month for the first few months, gradually rising to 1,000/mo at the end of production year one. If production can increase by 50% by the end of year two (1,500/mo) and continue along at that rate of increase, Rivian could get to their apparent goal of 20,000 per year (1,667/month) early in 2023.

If we assume that Rivian has about 35,000 pre-orders – a number I've seen in a few places now - that would mean that all the initial orders will be filled sometime in 2024. I'm nearer the end of pre-order line, with perhaps 25,000 ahead of me. By my crude calculations, that means delivery of my R1T with the Max package in early 2023.
Yeah, great information. I was afraid of something like this happening. Most people won't see theirs until 2022 and longer.
Starting out at 300/month would be a pathetic production rate. I certainly hope that is not the case. That would be less than 5000 in 2021, even if they ramped up to 1000 in December. GM built 24000 Bolts in 2017, the first year, that was 2000/month.

My order number was right at 10000, and I got passed up because I did not order an LE, nor do I want the glass roof. If GM starts Hummer production in October at 2000/month they will beat Rivian to my driveway.
Yeah I certainly hope we are wrong about the production capability. If it's gonna take that long people may go elsewhere! I should be one of the early ones, Nov 27th, 2018.
 

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Starting out at 300/month would be a pathetic production rate. I certainly hope that is not the case. That would be less than 5000 in 2021, even if they ramped up to 1000 in December. GM built 24000 Bolts in 2017, the first year, that was 2000/month.

My order number was right at 10000, and I got passed up because I did not order an LE, nor do I want the glass roof. If GM starts Hummer production in October at 2000/month they will beat Rivian to my driveway.
Chevy Bolt production to the Rivian R1T/S is not really a like to like comparison.

Bolt production may have started from scratch, but Chevy was already making dozens of other models and churning our thousands of cars from multiple manufacturing sites each day. They were certainly in much better position to start Bolt production aggressively and ramp it up much more quickly if needed than is a start-up company entering the world of mass-market automobiles.

Granted, 300 per month is low, but Rivian's current production rate for anything is essentially zero, so getting to even 10 cars per day in Month 1 seems relatively ambitious. My assumption was that they would incrementally increase production numbers each week, and get to 1,000 per month at the end of Year 1. My further assumption was that total production for the first year would be about 6,600 units and that virtually all of the Year 1 production would be Launch Editions, split something like 80:20 R1T to R1S. I don't know how many orders Rivian got for Launch Editions, but think that 5 or 6 thousand may be a good guess, meaning essentially all of the first year deliveries will be of the same model.

This makes a lot of sense to me. It allows a new company at a new factory with a new design to build only one thing for 12 months, giving Rivian the opportunity to fine-tune their production processes before attempting add other configurations to the mix. Starting in Year 2, I'd expect that Rivian will introduce those other configurations into their production line and also continue to increase rate until they get to their target, which I'm assuming is about 1,700/month (the 20,000 units per year that some reports referenced). This would mean Year 2 production is on the order of 16,000 or so.

If my estimates are correct, by the end of 2023, Rivian will have delivered around 23,000 units, representing about 65% of their pre-orders. At 1,700 per month, Rivian would deliver all 35,000 pre-orders by mid-late 2023. I don't really know where I am in the pre-order queue: By the time I put my order in (Spring 2020), Rivian had changed their system and there was no way to determine your place. I'm just guessing that there are at least 25,000 orders ahead of mine which means that the R1T Max I ordered will get made sometime in early 2023.

While I don't think the Tesla CT or the GM Hummer will beat the R1T to market, I do think it's likely that the production numbers of both will be greater than the R1T. Your chance of getting either vehicle by say 2022 may in fact be better that of getting a Rivian by that date. That may or may not be a bad thing for Rivian. The long wait for pre-orders (as much as 4 or even 5 years if your pre-order is the R1S and you want the Max pack) may drive some potential buyers away to the CT and Hummer. That may not necessarily be bad for Rivian though.

If demand for BEV's remains high (as seems very likely), there will be plenty of customers to replace those who cancel their pre-orders, and those new buyers won't have to wait nearly as long for their Rivian. It also gives Rivan a chance to be the company with a superior offering in terms of quality. While GM has made great strides in QC in recent years, their track record with new vehicles is not particularly enviable. Tesla's quality control, or more accurately, their lack of QC, is legendary and growing. There is a compelling argument to be made for the "go-slow" production approach that allows a new company like Rivian to ensure their vehicles come to market largely trouble-free.

With only $1,000 tied up, I'm OK with taking a wait and see approach. My Rivian order is to replace a 2008 vehicle, and I may or may not be able to wait until 2023 for a replacement though.
 

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My assumption was that they would incrementally increase production numbers each week, and get to 1,000 per month at the end of Year 1. My further assumption was that total production for the first year would be about 6,600 units and that virtually all of the Year 1 production would be Launch Editions,
Your numbers do not add up. Launch Editions are all supposed to be delivered in 2021, that means only 7 months of production. 6600 for the first year puts that at the end of May 2022, unless you simply mean 2021. But even in that case they would need to be at 1000/month right away, like in July of 21, not in December. They have stated non-LE deliveries Jan 22.
 

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Launch Editions are all supposed to be delivered in 2021
They've stated a LE order gets you priority delivery. I do not think Rivian has actually stated they would complete all LEs before moving on to other trims in January. That feels like an unfounded assumption everyone is making because they want to think of this as a nice, clean, linear flow where orders are processed exactly in sequence when it's not. It's quite possible there will be a period of overlap with late-ordered LEs being mixed into a shipment of early-ordered Adventures in the early parts of 2022. Yossarian's analysis strikes me as quite reasonable and nicely fits into the wiggle room in all the official language from Rivian to date -- and is much more in line with what I am personally expecting based on the communications (and lack thereof) from Rivian to date.
 

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how do you know your order number?
There is a number here under your configuration page:
1074

Mine is an older one, so I simply subtract 1000, making mine 10137. There are some gaps later on and in August 2020 they changed the numbering system.
 

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There is a number here under your configuration page:
View attachment 1074
Mine is an older one, so I simply subtract 1000, making mine 10137. There are some gaps later on and in August 2020 they changed the numbering system.
Pretty sure they have drastically changed it now, or they have a lot more orders, since my number is over 253 million :)
 

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There is a number here under your configuration page:
View attachment 1074
Mine is an older one, so I simply subtract 1000, making mine 10137. There are some gaps later on and in August 2020 they changed the numbering system.
Ok my number is 252022229, subtract a thousand, and that leaves only 252,021,229 vehicles to be delivered ahead of my order . . .
 
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