[EaglesPDX]

The California-based truck maker said after the close of trading Thursday that it expects to produce 25,000 vehicles in 2022. The company said it would be able to double that output if it weren’t for constraints on getting parts and materials.

That should translate to 50,000 in 2023 so for those of us in the pre-April 1, 2022 original price reservation line, we should see our vehicles in 2023. I'm assuming the pre-1/4/22 line was 75,000 vehicles.

 

[Animalhouse]

Pre order Oct 2021 R1T with max pack deliver second half of 2023(ish). Haven’t heard a peep about how the max pack development is going.

 

[EaglesPDX]

Pre order Oct 2021 R1T with max pack deliver second half of 2023(ish). Haven’t heard a peep about how the max pack development is going.

In the article, Rivian notes no issues with battery supply. You'd think that would be the issue with the max pack unless there is some item that goes with the larger battery that they cannot get.

 

[@Boise]

Just a reminder that 25,000 vehicles includes 10,000 EDVs. Not sure how many EDVs are promised for 2023.

 

[EaglesPDX]

Just a reminder that 25,000 vehicles includes 10,000 EDVs

The 25,000 in 2021 and 50,000 in 2022 referred to in the article specifically to R1T and R1S.

 

[@Boise]

Just a reminder that 25,000 vehicles includes 10,000 EDVs. Not sure sure many EDVs are promised for 2023

The 25,000 in 2021 and 50,000 in 2022 referred to in the article specifically to R1T and R1S.

Ah I missed that and assumed we were talking current information.

Maybe in 2021 there was less information on the demand curve for batteries but it makes perfect sense that battery supply will be much lower than demand.

 

[EaglesPDX]

assumed we were talking current information.

March 22nd is fairly current information.

 

[Yossarian]

The 25,000 in 2021 and 50,000 in 2022 referred to in the article specifically to R1T and R1S.

The initial announcement in March was framed as cutting the original total vehicle production estimate of 50,000 units in 2022 in half, and most of the articles I saw did not make any distinction between R1 and EDV production.

If it's true, that the projection of 25,000 units applies only to R1 production, that would be very good news. It would mean however that total vehicle production for 2022 would be substantially greater than 25k, and I would think that Rivian would be touting that larger number.

 

[Yossarian]

Pre order Oct 2021 R1T with max pack deliver second half of 2023(ish). Haven’t heard a peep about how the max pack development is going.

The delivery window for my May 2020 pre-order for an R1T Max is the first half of 2023. While I hope that happens, I suspect that it may slip. Frankly, I'd be ecstatic to get my Rivian by the end of next year.

I agree that it's more than a bit concerning that Rivian has not released more information on Max pack production however.

 

[EaglesPDX]

most of the articles I saw did not make any distinction between R1 and EDV production.

The article quoted did make such a distinction and is recent, within last 30 days, so Rivian would have had the most recent information on logistics to make those projections. But it was WSJ which is not as detail oriented as it was prior to being purchased by Fox so it could include the Amazon delivery vans as well.

 

[Yossarian]

Unfortunately, the WSJ article is behind a paywall, so I couldn't see what they wrote. If they did in fact state that the 25k figure was only for R1 production, it would seem to contradict what was in the March Rivian Shareholder Letter (excerpt below - bold added).

Over the course of fiscal year 2022, we plan to remain focused on ramping up
production of both the R1 and RCV lines in Normal, as well as investing in our
technology and product portfolio for future growth. We believe that throughout
2022, the supply chain will be a fundamental limiting factor in our total output
for the Normal Factory and that our manufacturing equipment and processes
would have the ability to produce enough vehicles to deliver over 50,000
vehicles across our R1 and RCV platforms in 2022 if we were not constrained by
our supply chain. Our confidence comes from the demonstrated performance
of our processes and equipment which is in line with our expectations. Despite
this, due to the supply chain constraints currently visible to us, we believe we
will have sufficient parts and materials to produce 25,000 vehicles across our
R1 and RCV platforms in 2022. We continue to work with suppliers and look for
engineered solutions to help us combat any anticipated supply chain issues.

While we don't know how many EDV's Rivian plans to build this year, 10,000 is not an unreasonable guess given that we do know they have a 10-year, 100,000 unit contract in place with Amazon. It may well be less than 10k, but regardless of what it eventually turns out to be, it looks certainly like R1 production will be less than 25,000 for 2022.