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Is there a running list of deliveries? For Tesla there are various trackers that list the Tesla VINs issued, which gives a rough estimate of deliveries on a running basis. Has anyone put together anything similar for Rivian?
 

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Hopefully, we get a whole new level of candidness next week ... not just on what they've done but a candid projection of future production. That's certainly not a given as the New York Times reported that neither Rivian nor Amazon would answer their question about whether any vans were delivered to Amazon in the 4th quarter.

I think the honeymoon period is officially over and I doubt that the financial press will be in the mood to give Rivian any slack. For example, how can Rivan blame supply chain issues on computer chips when they've made so few vehicles? Why haven't chips been stock-piled now for months and months, given what they saw happen to other automakers that actually DO produce vehicles in mass?

If we don't get some needed clarity ... Rivian needs a clear change at management at the very top level.
 

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um. nobody is stock piling computer chips. that is not a thing.

what is a thing, is new manufacturing of chips in new facilities in the US, but it will literally take years and months to catch back up
 

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Our company and every electronics manufacturer that we deal with are absolutely stockpiling computer chips, it's the only way to ensure product keeps shipping out the door. With things as wacky as they are right now, lean inventories and JIT manufacturing is out the door, we've had to completely change our paradigm. We are buying parts out 2 years for risky components, we would never think of doing that before. Grey market brokers are also stock-piling and making a killing right now. Grey market pricing right now is 10x-15x markup for in-demand parts. The cost to build our products is climbing by the month. I'm not at all surprised at what Rivian attempted to do here, as they watch their profit margins evaporate.
 

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I would suspect you are right. A startup like Rivian has a lot of demands for its cash, and tying cash up in excessive inventory is not typically considered good practice. From my perspective, its a horrible time to be trying to spin up a manufacturing operation from scratch, its challenging enough for established businesses at the moment.
 

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um. nobody is stock piling computer chips. that is not a thing.

what is a thing, is new manufacturing of chips in new facilities in the US, but it will literally take years and months to catch back up
Our company and every electronics manufacturer that we deal with are absolutely stockpiling computer chips, it's the only way to ensure product keeps shipping out the door. With things as wacky as they are right now, lean inventories and JIT manufacturing is out the door, we've had to completely change our paradigm. We are buying parts out 2 years for risky components, we would never think of doing that before. Grey market brokers are also stock-piling and making a killing right now. Grey market pricing right now is 10x-15x markup for in-demand parts. The cost to build our products is climbing by the month. I'm not at all surprised at what Rivian attempted to do here, as they watch their profit margins evaporate.
Ummm ... RITVT ... perhaps stick to things you know about. Thanks kirkSD for the knowledge.

Having spent my entire career in Supply Chain Planning, I can share the basics with you. When obtaining parts are at risk (production yield issues such as CPU/GPU), production scheduling issues, sourcing issues, transportation issues ... etc.) you need to raise your safety stock levels (above and beyond). Getting too cute with JIT just means they now find somebody else to do your job as they show you the door ... and pay me to come in to work on their supply chain processes.

As far as those commenting on Rivian being in a position that they can't afford to be a start-up company trying to get to critical mass ... please share how you specifically know that is remotely true. Because I doubt that financial commitments made to Rivian such as lines of credit and other financial backing arrangements and the dollars that would be involved have been publicly shared.
 

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Ummm ... RITVT ... perhaps stick to things you know about. Thanks kirkSD for the knowledge.
So, you think think Rivian is one of those special auto companies sitting on a stockpile of computer chips?

Are companies attempting to stockpile parts, components, chips, etc. and making pre-buys? Sure. That is not what I am debating. If Rivian was sitting atop a stock pile of chips, I highly doubt we would see R.J. Scaringe saying something like this to analysts, investors and customers, but I should stick to what I know:

“The cascading impacts of the pandemic have had a compounding effect greater than anyone anticipated,” Chief Executive Officer R.J. Scaringe said in a letter sent Friday to customers and viewed by Bloomberg. “Everything from facility construction, to equipment installation, to vehicle component supply (especially semiconductors) has been impacted by the pandemic.” -R.J. Scaringe

Worth noting since you have supply chain expertise that the auto manufacturing sector is interestingly also complicit in the initiation of this shortage:

What caused the global chip shortage?
A shortage in the supply of semiconductors first hit the automotive industry during the COVID-19 pandemic and has had a cascading effect, causing global disruption. The shortage can be traced back to the first half of 2020, when overall consumer demand for cars declined during the lockdown. This forced chip manufacturers to shift their focus to other areas, such as computer equipment and mobile devices, which spiked in demand with more people working remotely.

As 5G and cloud-based services grew, more chips were needed for communication platforms like Zoom and video streaming services.

Part of the problem is that the return on investment isn’t compelling enough to build new foundries—which cost billions of dollars and take years to construct—to satisfy the demand by automakers, according to IDC. Automakers operate in a just-in-time environment without business continuity planning, according to Mario Morales, program vice president of the semiconductor group at IDC.
 

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Hopefully, we get a whole new level of candidness next week ... not just on what they've done but a candid projection of future production. That's certainly not a given as the New York Times reported that neither Rivian nor Amazon would answer their question about whether any vans were delivered to Amazon in the 4th quarter.

I think the honeymoon period is officially over and I doubt that the financial press will be in the mood to give Rivian any slack. For example, how can Rivan blame supply chain issues on computer chips when they've made so few vehicles? Why haven't chips been stock-piled now for months and months, given what they saw happen to other automakers that actually DO produce vehicles in mass?

If we don't get some needed clarity ... Rivian needs a clear change at management at the very top level.
Will RJ. E sleeping on the production floor in a Walmart sleeping bag during Production Hell? I seem to remember someone else who did that while saying designing is easy, but production is Hard. Really hard.
 

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So, you think think Rivian is one of those special auto companies sitting on a stockpile of computer chips?

Are companies attempting to stockpile parts, components, chips, etc. and making pre-buys? Sure. That is not what I am debating. If Rivian was sitting atop a stock pile of chips, I highly doubt we would see R.J. Scaringe saying something like this to analysts, investors and customers, but I should stick to what I know.
According to you

"um. nobody is stock piling computer chips. that is not a thing."

Just stop embarrassing yourself.
 

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Will RJ. E sleeping on the production floor in a Walmart sleeping bag during Production Hell? I seem to remember someone else who did that while saying designing is easy, but production is Hard. Really hard.
They just hired a Nissan exec to head up their production. Hopefully, he is the right person for the job. That the last guy left and Rivian didn't reveal that he was leaving at the time of the IPO (reportedly) doesn't pass the sniff test.

Meanwhile, the list of founders that made ineffective CEOs is quite long ... hopefully RJ doesn't get added.
 

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Its impossible to stockpile the legacy chips that most auto's used as the foundries shut down. Most other basic CPUs are somewhat available, its just all the other components are not. I don't know if RIVN went with the old dies or started with a more modern chip set.
 
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