[CO-Adventurer]

The Next Tesla? Investors Bet Big on Electric Truck Maker Rivian (Published 2021)

Rivian, which has raised another $2.65 billion, plans to sell a pickup truck and S.U.V. it has worked on for more than a decade.

www.nytimes.com

One interesting tidbit that I had not seen in other articles:

"Last year, before the pandemic struck, [Rivian] said it planned to make around 20,000 pickup trucks and S.U.V.s in 2021 and some 40,000 in 2022. It has not yet offered an updated outlook. It is aiming to have production capacity of 250,000 vehicles a year at its plant in Normal, Ill., by the middle of the decade. The company has not disclosed how many orders it has taken, but a spokeswoman said it had customers lined up for all the vehicles it expected to make this year."

If we read between the lines, I believe the vehicles it "expected to make this year" likely refers to the Launch Edition, but not sure what that means for someone with a reservation near #40,000, like me. 2022?? Thoughts??

 

[eHauler]

2022 does seem more like it for you with the pace Rivian will move at. Unless of course you're able to take a 2021 spot that someone drops. If so, are you sticking it out till then or might get something else that arrives sooner?

 

[CO-Adventurer]

2022 does seem more like it for you with the pace Rivian will move at. Unless of course you're able to take a 2021 spot that someone drops. If so, are you sticking it out till then or might get something else that arrives sooner?

There's nothing else to get! It's R1T for me all the way. I do want the 400 mi version though. Hoping Rivian will be able to crank them out in early 2022!

 

[CO-Adventurer]

I actually have two reservations - one for the R1T LE and one for the 400 mi variant. My wife will only let me buy one so I have to wait and see how they roll out.

 

[azbill]

Based on the original quoted plan of 20,000 in 2021, that was based on starting deliveries in Dec 2020, not June 2021. So for me, that appears there will only be about 10,000 LEs in 2021, followed by 40,000 in 2022, if they stay on track. With a reservation number of 40,000 you would be fall of 2022 for your delivery. My reservation number is at 10,000, but I want the removable roof, so that is delayed until June 2022.

I am considering changing my order from a fully loaded R1T to a scaled down R1S Explorer for my wife. I should definitely get that in Jan-Feb 2022. Then I will get the Hummer in late 2022 or early 2023 for me. I am currently wait listed for the Launch Edition of the Hummer, but have a definite V3 reserved. GM has already told me I can upgrade to the equivalent of the Launch Edition, just means getting it later.

 

[bonnie]

[QUOTE="someone with a reservation near #40,000, like me.
[/QUOTE]

How can you tell what your reservation # is? Is it somewhere on your configuration summary?

 

[eHauler]

@bonnie When did you pre-order?
If its around December 2019, then near 40,000. I think anyone ordering now is over 60,000.

 

[Wildabeest]

@bonnie When did you pre-order?
If its around December 2019, then near 40,000. I think anyone ordering now is over 60,000.

Google “rivian reservation graph” and you just might find a graph based on a survey of current reservations holders. There was a big jump in Dec 2019 from 20,000 to 40,000. So if you are in that timeframe, you real position is likely 20,000 less than your actual reservation number. You’d also need to take into account that some folks who reserved may not actually purchase, or may wait until certain options they desire are available such as MaxPack battery. My position is in the 16,000’s, but given I’ve configured an L1T LE, I’m thinking my real position will likely be in the first 10,000. But that might be just wishful thinking 😆.

 

[azbill]

I reserved in May 2019, my number was 11237, substract 1000 and that is 10237. They started with 1001. I have not ordered an LE because I wanted the Max Pack. I also want the removable roof, which they are now claiming June 2022 to deliver. My early preorder has providied me no advantage, that is why I also put in a reservation for a Hummer.

 

[Wildabeest]

I reserved in May 2019, my number was 11237, substract 1000 and that is 10237. They started with 1001. I have not ordered an LE because I wanted the Max Pack. I also want the removable roof, which they are now claiming June 2022 to deliver. My early preorder has providied me no advantage, that is why I also put in a reservation for a Hummer.

I’ve now moved up one more “virtual” spot. Thanks @azbill!

I forgot about the 1,000 starting spot. I guess that’s to make up for all those “in the wild” test vehicles we are seeing!

 

[CO-Adventurer]

How can you tell what your reservation # is? Is it somewhere on your configuration summary?

According to the graph, I'd actually be around 28000 since I pre-ordered in July of 2020. I hadn't subtracted the 20k jump. The only way I know is by looking at that graph. There used to be a way to see the reservation number in the URL of the pre-order confirmation email but that was eliminated a couple of days before I tried. Doesn't work now. The reservations just before me (before the 20k subtraction) were around #40000ish, or so I heard.

 

[eHauler]

According to the graph, I'd actually be around 28000 since I pre-ordered in July of 2020. I hadn't subtracted the 20k jump. The only way I know is by looking at that graph. There used to be a way to see the reservation number in the URL of the pre-order confirmation email but that was eliminated a couple of days before I tried. Doesn't work now. The reservations just before me (before the 20k subtraction) were around #40000ish, or so I heard.

With 2021 being a big year for Rivian they might start giving us more insight. Q2?

 

[Stevew]

It would be interesting to know what percentage Rivian thinks will actually buy compared to the $1K place holder. My wild assed guess would be more than 50% but less than 60%.

Steve

 

[eHauler]

It would be interesting to know what percentage Rivian thinks will actually buy compared to the $1K place holder. My wild assed guess would be more than 50% but less than 60%.

Steve

That sounds about right.

$1,000 is a lot to commit and much unlike the $100 that Tesla requires for the Cybertruck. At that little down, I wonder how many of the 250,000 that pre-ordered will actually buy the Tesla pickup truck.

 

[Rob f]

The Next Tesla? Investors Bet Big on Electric Truck Maker Rivian (Published 2021)

Rivian, which has raised another $2.65 billion, plans to sell a pickup truck and S.U.V. it has worked on for more than a decade.

www.nytimes.com

One interesting tidbit that I had not seen in other articles:

"Last year, before the pandemic struck, [Rivian] said it planned to make around 20,000 pickup trucks and S.U.V.s in 2021 and some 40,000 in 2022. It has not yet offered an updated outlook. It is aiming to have production capacity of 250,000 vehicles a year at its plant in Normal, Ill., by the middle of the decade. The company has not disclosed how many orders it has taken, but a spokeswoman said it had customers lined up for all the vehicles it expected to make this year."

If we read between the lines, I believe the vehicles it "expected to make this year" likely refers to the Launch Edition, but not sure what that means for someone with a reservation near #40,000, like me. 2022?? Thoughts??

Dumb question, how do I figure out my reservation #?

 

[eHauler]

Dumb question, how do I figure out my reservation #?

Can you try this method to find your Rivian reservation number?

 

[Irishjugg]

Based on the original quoted plan of 20,000 in 2021, that was based on starting deliveries in Dec 2020, not June 2021. So for me, that appears there will only be about 10,000 LEs in 2021, followed by 40,000 in 2022, if they stay on track. With a reservation number of 40,000 you would be fall of 2022 for your delivery. My reservation number is at 10,000, but I want the removable roof, so that is delayed until June 2022.

I am considering changing my order from a fully loaded R1T to a scaled down R1S Explorer for my wife. I should definitely get that in Jan-Feb 2022. Then I will get the Hummer in late 2022 or early 2023 for me. I am currently wait listed for the Launch Edition of the Hummer, but have a definite V3 reserved. GM has already told me I can upgrade to the equivalent of the Launch Edition, just means getting it later.

If I may, I'm a long term Tesla investor (2009 vintage), your guess here is very linear which intuitively makes sense, but having been through this a few times, if be shocked if more than 4-5k come around in half of 2021 in the June to Dec timeline. That's about where the first 6 months would end up in the ideal of they started Dec 2020 and actually hit the 20k in 2021 target.

Regardless, this is a target that will almost certainly be missed, and "missing" that Target should be ignored as long as the incremental progress looks good, the trajectory is right, cash balance + ability to continue raising capital looks good, etc.

Strap in, it's going to be longer than you think, keep an eye on the indications of their momentum and care about those, but don't get caught up too much in timelines that will turn out to be overly optimistic - no matter how pessimistically they were initially set. Realty has a way of doing that.

If I have offended in any way, my apologies, it was not my intention. I'm new here and want to learn more about Rivian and it's progress. I view it as the most likely to succeed of all the myriad ev startups and have come to learn, but feel that my years of commenting on and investing in Tesla could also be valuable here.

Cheers!

 

[azbill]

Strap in, it's going to be longer than you think, keep an eye on the indications of their momentum and care about those, but don't get caught up too much in timelines that will turn out to be overly optimistic - no matter how pessimistically they were initially set. Realty has a way of doing that.

That post I made was many months ago when I was still somewhat optimistic. I have since been moving on and revising my plans. Just bought a Mach E and also have a Hummer reservation that is looking better and better every day. My Rivian reservation has become Plan C.

 

[FanFLelectric]

That post I made was many months ago when I was still somewhat optimistic. I have since been moving on and revising my plans. Just bought a Mach E and also have a Hummer reservation that is looking better and better every day. My Rivian reservation has become Plan C.

Having alternate plan seems appropriate at this point. As a R1S seeker, having made a deposit in December of 2018, the announcement last week that Lincoln is planning to start delivering their BEV in the second half of 2022 may result in our plan A becoming to wait on a vehicle to be made and delivered by a company with an established service and delivery system. And we have driven Lincolns for last 20 years.

Gave Ford $100 to buy in to the F150 EV reservation system after Rivian decided that we could just wait till November to be told when it may be producing the LE vehicle that we signed in for some time ago. If the delivery slips till mid-2022, our deposit will be going to buy something else. The things people are saying about delivery being affected by buyer location and selected color is just so aggrevating. (Color will not be an issue for Cybertruk deliveries!)

 

[SANZCO2]

I think everyone needs to set their own priorities based on need and time requirements.

I’m probably the perfect consumer for Rivian. Since buying my Model S I've been waiting for an EV that has the specifications to replace my Jeep GC Overland without having to compromise. When I saw the specs on the R1S it seems to be the one I was waiting for so I placed my deposit. Not really in the market for a vehicle so timing really is not an issue for me.

There really is nothing out there to compete with the R1S. Closest thing is the Hummer SUV but with a mid 2023 release date, a price of 110k for the E1, and how much larger the outside is, not sure it is really a competitor.

The funds I have ear marked for the purchase are up about 35% since I placed my deposit. Waiting a little longer might make the vehicle even cheaper for me….