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As much as I hate the way they went about the price increase, the company valuation will likely rebound. The profit margin on each vehicle will be higher, they will be able to deliver vehicles quicker, and, realistically, there are not a lot of direct competitors for the Rivian yet. How many quad motor, 800hp, 3 second 0-60, three-row, luxury SUVs are out there for under $100k? Hell, how many of those are out there for over $100k? The only three row fully electric SUV currently on the market besides the Rivian is a Tesla Model X, and it's at least $10k-$15k more than even the updated price. And Model X is not a direct competitor for the R1S. R1S will likely be a brand similar to Patagonia/North Face/REI, where there is a niche type of customer, who is willing to pay extra for the perceived outdoorsiness of it all.
 

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I agree that at $72-$74,000 the Rivian was an exceptional value. However for a car company that has an entry level vehicle that starts at about $90,000! That price eliminates probably 95% of buyers out there, including me.
So for Rivian to say they will ramp up to 50,000 vehicles a year, and based their stock price on that, is not gonna happen in my view.
Remember sales tax and registration etc. pushes the entry level to near $100,000. I know they are planning lower cost trucks, but not before they go bankrupt?
 

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I agree that at $72-$74,000 the Rivian was an exceptional value. However for a car company that has an entry level vehicle that starts at about $90,000! That price eliminates probably 95% of buyers out there, including me.
So for Rivian to say they will ramp up to 50,000 vehicles a year, and based their stock price on that, is not gonna happen in my view.
Remember sales tax and registration etc. pushes the entry level to near $100,000. I know they are planning lower cost trucks, but not before they go bankrupt?
I agree. If they intend to become more competitive (and justify a second factory) they’ll need to expand beyond the current niche of customers. I think there are quite a few people out there willing to shell out $100k for a super cool adventure vehicle, but not enough to maintain the demand. Similar to how there were enough people willing to shell out $100k+ for the Model S/X, but Tesla needed the 3/Y to truly come mainstream. Now, it’s possible that Rivian chooses not to aim for becoming mainstream and will work with a niche market (like REI/Patagonia), but at that point, I’m not sure they’ll need a second plant as one should be able to support that demand.

Conversely, perhaps they purpose of the second plant is to ensure the ability to produce Amazon’s vehicles.
 

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I agree that at $72-$74,000 the Rivian was an exceptional value. However for a car company that has an entry level vehicle that starts at about $90,000! That price eliminates probably 95% of buyers out there, including me.
So for Rivian to say they will ramp up to 50,000 vehicles a year, and based their stock price on that, is not gonna happen in my view.
Remember sales tax and registration etc. pushes the entry level to near $100,000. I know they are planning lower cost trucks, but not before they go bankrupt?
Agree with analysis. As a committed EV owner, just shaking my head on the decision making on the cost increases. Plus if this is the way they treat reservation holders by reversing prior standard equipment and imposing charges you have to wonder what happens with service and charging system costs,. Just canceled reservation.
 

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I agree. If they intend to become more competitive (and justify a second factory) they’ll need to expand beyond the current niche of customers. I think there are quite a few people out there willing to shell out $100k for a super cool adventure vehicle, but not enough to maintain the demand. Similar to how there were enough people willing to shell out $100k+ for the Model S/X, but Tesla needed the 3/Y to truly come mainstream. Now, it’s possible that Rivian chooses not to aim for becoming mainstream and will work with a niche market (like REI/Patagonia), but at that point, I’m not sure they’ll need a second plant as one should be able to support that demand.

Conversely, perhaps they purpose of the second plant is to ensure the ability to produce Amazon’s vehicles.
They have said many times the Georgia plant is not for the R1 series but will be for the upcoming lower priced smaller models, probably R2. There have been no details about that vehicle yet but they have a couple of years yet.
 

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They have said many times the Georgia plant is not for the R1 series but will be for the upcoming lower priced smaller models, probably R2. There have been no details about that vehicle yet but they have a couple of years yet.
Did not know that. Thank you! Curious to see which direction they take that in. The R1 series are at an advantage because there was really no competition. The way things are looking Rivian will have a hard time breaking into an already crowded market of smaller/cheaper EVs. Of course the number of prospective customers in the cheaper segment is also much higher.
 

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Agree with analysis. As a committed EV owner, just shaking my head on the decision making on the cost increases. Plus if this is the way they treat reservation holders by reversing prior standard equipment and imposing charges you have to wonder what happens with service and charging system costs,. Just canceled reservation.
I struggled with this part and still do. If they needed to raise prices to maintain viability they had two ways to go about it: (1) raise the price of the vehicle in general and keep all the options standard (and free), or (2) keep the base price closer to the original, but start charging for options. FWIW, I think this is probably the better way, since it allows people to pick-and-choose the options they want. I still don’t like the way they went about it all, but between the two options, this is probably the better one.
 

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The company lost 8 Billion in value today to attempt and collect 750 Millions from the 50,000 pre-order holders (assuming $15,000 increase). THIS could've been averted.
Probably not without incurring the $750M loss on building vehicles at below cost which the market would likely punish much more going forward.

Building the EV Amazon vans and high end off road EV's is likely a solid EV base going forward vs. trying to match Ford and GM on consumer pickups.
 

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As much as I hate the way they went about the price increase, the company valuation will likely rebound. The profit margin on each vehicle will be higher; they will be able to deliver vehicles quicker. Realistically, there are not a lot of direct competitors for the Rivian yet. How many quad motor, 800hp, 3 second 0-60, three-row, luxury SUVs are out there for under $100k? Hell, how many of those are out there for over $100k? The only three-row fully electric SUV currently on the market besides the Rivian is a Tesla Model X, and it's at least $10k-$15k more than even the updated price. And Model X is not a direct competitor for the R1S. R1S will likely be a brand similar to Patagonia/North Face/REI, where there is a niche type of customer, who is willing to pay extra for the perceived outdoorsiness of it all.
Maybe I don't need an EV $100K SUV that only goes 300 miles on a charge. Perhaps I will go with a more significant SUV ICE because it has lost its cache and treated its core group of customers like crap. 0-60 in 3 seconds? Who cares? I have a 16-year-old Porsche 911 that will spank one through the first curve if that is what you are into. Get this, its worth 50% of its purchase price 16 years later also. See if your tech truck holds value over even 6 years in an emerging segment. I am sure the other six people will enjoy that often. I have had Suburbans, Expeditions, Hummers, and a Lincoln Navigator, and Lincoln treats their customers like gold. Maybe something learned from a car company operating 100 years versus 10. How can your accounting department be that far off that you have to raise the price of white paint on a non-full-size SUV from $0-to $1750 overnight? Why take your 50K core group of customers and the CEO does not even communicate with them about staying with them for two to three years, then jacking their price up from $80K to $100K. I can get a loaded Navigator with for better seats and room and storage for less than a Rivian SUV that has yet to sell one and has possibly, possibly committed fraud by placing prices low as their former head of sales and marketing states in her lawsuit to draw in a high IPO, and already knew they are going to raise the prices. Can't they lock in the price now? No, still the same. They pissed over their core group and pissed over the brand, and brand loyalty is tough to acquire in the automotive world. I cashed out at opening bell, lost a few grand, no big deal, and canceled my order last night. They could have easily raised the price and fixed it for reservations, but they came out with different trucks and price points. Somebody can't forecast or price worth a crap, and hell if I am going to depend on a company that sends out a crappy email from customer service (CEO step up to the plate and get a sack) for 4-5 years.
 

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Market up 1.8% and Rivian down 13.5%. 🤔
I am sure they lost way more in value than they would have in income had they been loyal to customers who had been loyal to them and not created this narrative that they represented a price right up to the IPO when they should have known by then they would need to increase price but kept the charade going until after the IPO. What did they know and when? They don’t have proof of concept since all their “customer deliveries” were in-house. I don’t think they have the cachet to increase the price without an established product without risking customer and market pain.
 

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Probably not without incurring the $750M loss on building vehicles at below cost which the market would likely punish much more going forward.

Building the EV Amazon vans and high end off road EV's is likely a solid EV base going forward vs. trying to match Ford and GM on consumer pickups.
They're prepping for next week's earnings call, wrong moves at multiple high positions, and they have a big problem.
 

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Maybe I don't need an EV $100K SUV that only goes 300 miles on a charge. Perhaps I will go with a more significant SUV ICE because it has lost its cache and treated its core group of customers like crap. 0-60 in 3 seconds? Who cares? I have a 16-year-old Porsche 911 that will spank one through the first curve if that is what you are into. Get this, its worth 50% of its purchase price 16 years later also. See if your tech truck holds value over even 6 years in an emerging segment. I am sure the other six people will enjoy that often. I have had Suburbans, Expeditions, Hummers, and a Lincoln Navigator, and Lincoln treats their customers like gold. Maybe something learned from a car company operating 100 years versus 10. How can your accounting department be that far off that you have to raise the price of white paint on a non-full-size SUV from $0-to $1750 overnight? Why take your 50K core group of customers and the CEO does not even communicate with them about staying with them for two to three years, then jacking their price up from $80K to $100K. I can get a loaded Navigator with for better seats and room and storage for less than a Rivian SUV that has yet to sell one and has possibly, possibly committed fraud by placing prices low as their former head of sales and marketing states in her lawsuit to draw in a high IPO, and already knew they are going to raise the prices. Can't they lock in the price now? No, still the same. They pissed over their core group and pissed over the brand, and brand loyalty is tough to acquire in the automotive world. I cashed out at opening bell, lost a few grand, no big deal, and canceled my order last night. They could have easily raised the price and fixed it for reservations, but they came out with different trucks and price points. Somebody can't forecast or price worth a crap, and hell if I am going to depend on a company that sends out a crappy email from customer service (CEO step up to the plate and get a sack) for 4-5 years.
I don’t necessarily disagree with anything you said, except of course what you said about the Porsche. Did you really just compare the handling of a 911 to a full-size truck/SUV? The fact that it would smoke the 911 (including most non-Turbo 911s today) is pretty impressive.

It does make me wonder what attracted you to the Rivian in the first place? Sounds like it wasn’t the acceleration or the off-road capabilities. You also don’t seem to be a believer in the how tech trucks will hold their values.

Your comment about getting the Navigator also suggests that it was primarily luxury that you were after, and the navigator is probably a better option for that (or an Escalade; I prefer their interiors).

Unfortunately none of the cars you listed offer the stuff that the Rivian offers (albeit they excel at other things). From what I’m hearing it isn’t the car for you, but even at this price it’s a whole lot of car for someone who’s looking for an adventure vehicle. It has the acceleration of a sports car, off-road capabilities of a Wrangler, space of a full size SUV, and pretty good tech. If you combine all those things, the value proposition is still there. Hell, the only other three row SUV is nearly $25k-$30k more.

I do agree that this should’ve been handled very differently though.
 

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I don’t necessarily disagree with anything you said, except of course what you said about the Porsche. Did you really just compare the handling of a 911 to a full-size truck/SUV? The fact that it would smoke the 911 (including most non-Turbo 911s today) is pretty impressive.

It does make me wonder what attracted you to the Rivian in the first place? Sounds like it wasn’t the acceleration or the off-road capabilities. You also don’t seem to be a believer in the how tech trucks will hold their values.

Your comment about getting the Navigator also suggests that it was primarily luxury that you were after, and the navigator is probably a better option for that (or an Escalade; I prefer their interiors).

Unfortunately none of the cars you listed offer the stuff that the Rivian offers (albeit they excel at other things). From what I’m hearing it isn’t the car for you, but even at this price it’s a whole lot of car for someone who’s looking for an adventure vehicle. It has the acceleration of a sports car, off-road capabilities of a Wrangler, space of a full size SUV, and pretty good tech. If you combine all those things, the value proposition is still there. Hell, the only other three row SUV is nearly $25k-$30k more.

I do agree that this should’ve been handled very differently though.
Twin Turbo 2004 Porsche, you and many Hellcats thought you can stay up with a sports car through any curves? A joke, top speed is 180, have hit 150 on track, you going to do that? As for as what they offer, its nothing, nobody has an SUV.
 

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Twin Turbo 2004 Porsche, you and many Hellcats thought you can stay up with a sports car through any curves? A joke, top speed is 180, have hit 150 on track, you going to do that? As for as what they offer, its nothing, nobody has an SUV.
Pretty sure I said acceleration. And again, the fact that you are even comparing a twin turbo sports car to a full-size SUV is telling.

Not sure what you mean by that kart sentence. Are you referring to the fact that they have not yet delivered any R1S or to the fact that they have no competition because there are no other fully-electric SUVs? If it’s the former, you’re right. Time will tell. If it’s the latter, you actually have it backwards. The fact that nobody else has anything remotely competitive, means they get to control that market.
 

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They're prepping for next week's earnings call, wrong moves at multiple high positions, and they have a big problem.
The loss of reservation holders doesn’t effect current earnings. Been an economic sea change from 2018 with supply side scarcity and subsequent price inflation so the price change is totally understandable.

Could have done better on PR aspect. Provide price protection for ‘22 deliveries which are likely 5,000 out of 75,000.
 

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I feel like they are running before walking here.

New plant, more models, dual motor vehicles (have they even built a prototype dual or did they just make that up to lower the price?)

It makes me feel like they are just flying by the seat of their pants like a tech startup. But unfortunately vehicles are a little more challenging.
 

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Pretty sure I said acceleration. And again, the fact that you are even comparing a twin-turbo sports car to a full-size SUV is telling.

Not sure what you mean by that kart sentence. Are you referring to the fact that they have not yet delivered any R1S or to the fact that they have no competition because there are no other fully-electric SUVs? If it's the former, you're right. Time will tell. If it's the latter, you actually have it backwards. The fact that nobody else has anything remotely competitive, means they get to control that market.
They have not delivered over ONE R1S's to purchasing customers. Competiton with SUVs doing 0-60? Please, why? It will take you forever to stop the thing or brake into a turn. What is the purpose? Weight is everything in handling and speed. Go play with Hotwheels if that is your most vital buying point. It's just not that important. A Navigator can hit 0-60 in 5.5 seconds. Do you think Rivian will own the market because their yet-to-be-sold SUV is now at 4.0 seconds. Dual motor just lost 25% of your speed and was at a price for four motors. OK, if it's a $35K car, people want excellent service when you get in the $100K area. Do you think Navigators and Expeditions sell cause the Twin Turbo 6 is a 5-second truck? People would rather have Apple and Android interfaces. Remember, the Lincoln or Ford will tow 8000lbs all day long. Remember a large number of people buy trucks to tow with, and you're not towing any with an EV SUV unless it's a 14-foot boat about 75 miles. Ford and GM will have them as soon or sooner. They are in the Hummer range now, and GM has customer loyalty; Rivian just screwed their customers and still can't deliver after two-plus years. Wait until they get grilled on next week's earnings call. Remember, their former head of Sales and Marketing has a lawsuit for them for they knew before IPO that they could not sell at the listed prices and not take a loss on every delivery, yet kept them at those price points to increase the IPO and orders after. Look up the lawsuit. It may become a class action. One old Mitsubishi plant with two lines and one needs to make Amazon Delivery Vans. GM is vertically integrated and makes its batteries, not Rivian, which has troubles with Samsung, their supplier. How hard do you think it is to drop one in a Suburban and Escalade or Tahoe after doing it with a Silverado. How hard is it for Ford to make the Navigator in Kentucky alongside the F250 drop into the same frames in their EV? They have numerous lines that they can run 24 hours a day across the US, Mexico, and Canada. They can shift automation within unbelievable times. Hey, I thought they had a nice downsized truck and SUV for the price, but yesterday they jacked the price up to $20K on my order after 22 months. Not my kind of company, but if it's your thing, go for it; it's your money. If you feel that extensively buy up the stock also.
 

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The loss of reservation holders doesn’t effect current earnings. Been an economic sea change from 2018 with supply side scarcity and subsequent price inflation so the price change is totally understandable.

Could have done better on PR aspect. Provide price protection for ‘22 deliveries which are likely 5,000 out of 75,000.
Loss of stock value will heavily affect the company. Down a few billion today. Wait for the earnings call next week and the questions and answers (maybe they will have customer service handle it).
 

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The loss of reservation holders doesn’t effect current earnings. Been an economic sea change from 2018 with supply side scarcity and subsequent price inflation so the price change is totally understandable.

Could have done better on PR aspect. Provide price protection for ‘22 deliveries which are likely 5,000 out of 75,000.
Read about the lawsuit, very interesting!

Understandable? Price increase of $20K? How come Porsche can take my EV order at MSRP and guarantee it will not rise (Porsche Colorado Springs). Also, made and shipped with Germany. Ford will do the same. Porsche is also coming out with a 7 passenger SUV EV.
 
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