[Yossarian]

I've noticed that the number of vehicles available in the R1T Shop is now quite considerable, and seems to be growing. Last week, the number was in the mid-30's to low-40's. Today it's over 60. It may be that Rivian has ramped up production significantly in Q4, to meet or perhaps to even try to beat, their revised forecast. It may also be that demand has softened somewhat, and folks are no longer quite as eager to snap up anything that Rivian offers. Instead, they're declining to use the Shop and are opting to wait for their specific order to be fulfilled.

It also seems like both demand and prices for the R1T in the secondary market have softened considerably. It's hard to tell for sure, but it seems like the trucks offered online are staying listed longer than in the recent past, and that the asking prices are more realistic.

It's tempting to see the two trends as directly related, but as we know, correlation is not causation.
edit: typo

 

[atebit]

It's tempting to see the two trends as directly related, but as we know, correlation is not causation.

Perhaps today’s eminent scientists will one day come to realize this as well.

Also: Capitalism FTW! Could in some small way be related to the fact that for some people it will now cost as much as a 7 day cruise to send your truck in for service.

 

[ERivTruck]

Normal production ramp up process. As more and more vehicles are "repaired" after being sent form the final line to Heavy Repair in the plant, these fixed units get parked awaiting on owners. So naturally, Rivian is trying to match (nearly 100%) build schedule versus orders. They never are in alignment. That is why most auto plants build to a schedule and never to customer order configurations.

 

[tyemoe]

I believe it is 2 things. 1st is inflation/economy. Due to a lot of tightening of the belts, demand is likely lower over all for an expensive truck.

2nd reason is max pack and/or dual motor. People want these features now. Rivian could easily sell these large pack/quad motor trucks that are in the R1 shop if there was really a demand for the trucks by simply opening up the R1 shop to all the people who ordered a truck, or at least in bigger swathes of people. However, they know this won’t work because people want the max pack or cheaper dual motor and are willing to wait at this point.

 

[Deft]

There are still plenty of us still waiting to get access to the Shop. I bet the secondary market speculators that reserved early and often have worked their way through the system and this is a good sign that supply is catching up to demand.

 

[Yossarian]

Bumping this thread to update things, posit some scenarios, ask a couple of somewhat related questions, and seek some feedback.

Update: There were several days recently with no vehicles in the Shop. Those days appear to coincide with the timing of the recall for the improperly torqued nut, and I strongly suspect that was reason. Over the past several days, there have been reasonable numbers of vehicles in the Shop.

Question: Now that prices for used R1T's have become more realistic (note that I did not say reasonable), I wonder what the future trend wrt resale values for Rivians will be. Right now for example, the R1S is commanding a huge premium, almost certainly because of its relative scarcity. Deliveries of the SUV will likely ramp in 2023, and I'd expect used pricing to begin to moderate, just as is happening with the R1T.

Deliveries of the R1T Max will likely start next year, and I'd expect that for the first few months, prices on the secondary market will be ridiculous, just as they were when the R1T and now the R1S first delivered. And just as with those models, I'd expect that things will moderate, probably quite quickly, as Max deliveries ramp up.

The more interesting question to me is what will resale values for the three models look like over the longer term. My guess is that the R1T LR will depreciate most, the result of it being more common and having several direct competitors with vehicles already reaching driveways. So with larger numbers of R1T's offered on a secondary market that also hosts Ford and GM competitors, I'd think that there would be considerable price pressure that will push resale values to relatively low values

At the other end of the spectrum, I'd expect that the R1S will depreciate least for a few reasons. I suspect that demand for the SUV will be stronger than for the pick-up in the longer term, and Rivian will struggle more with demand for it. While there are R1 competitors coming, none are presently being delivered, meaning Rivian essentially has a monopoly position in the market, albeit one that will be short-lived. The end result is that for the next five or so years, I'd think that the R1S will command a decent premium in the secondary market.

In between would be the R1T Max. Like the R1S, there are no immediate direct competitors, so it too will enjoy a quasi-monopoly for some time. While I suspect demand will not be as high as for the R1S since it won't have the same suburban soccer-mom appeal, it will still be more in demand than the LR variant. This combination should tend to keep resale values high, at least until Rivian production increases and competitors start delivering.

Be interested to hear what the larger Rivian community thinks of the speculation above.