I live in Normal I so seeing a R1T is quite common now. Yesterday near the Rivian plant I spotted 2 haulers loaded up with trucks. Orders are heading out.
More like a week's worth of "deliveries." As for "production," according to Automotive News (and many other outlets including this forum) Rivian is "ramping up output of its debut EV toward almost 200 delivery-ready units a week."A week's worth of production on 2 trucks!
What are we to make of that? Ramping up to 200 a week. They aren't there yet, and are they going to plateau there? That will get less than 10K units out this year. The plant allegedly can produce almost 3000 a week at some point. Aren't we on the ramp to that? Not 200.More like a week's worth of "deliveries." As for "production," according to Automotive News (and many other outlets including this forum) Rivian is "ramping up output of its debut EV toward almost 200 delivery-ready units a week."
Well, assuming that it's a plateau is generally observed as inaccurate. Given it's a new company, new (and first) vehicles, you've got to expect that the ramp up will take some time. They're also working on 3 different products with the R1T, R1S and Amazon Van which complicates it all. Temporary shutdowns are not unexpected, especially as processes are revised and improved upon. We also don't fully know the impact of supply chain issues. I'm not an early reservation holder but was told the Max Pack would be out next year. It's long in the tooth, but then Tesla has also been having production issues with the Model S and X refreshes - the latter has barely gotten going on deliveries with orders unfulfilled from over a year ago. Other than Tesla, we don't have a good example of how "hard production is" (quoting Musk). Let's see how the Big 3 do it - if at all.What are we to make of that? Ramping up to 200 a week. They aren't there yet, and are they going to plateau there? That will get less than 10K units out this year. The plant allegedly can produce almost 3000 a week at some point. Aren't we on the ramp to that? Not 200.
I predicted (I think in this forum) they would shut down the line entirely in early 2022 for fixes and improvements. They did exactly that. They have underachieved to such a ludicrously low level I really doubt they have the right people on board. They need some executive level help badly. The delivery windows we received in December were almost immediately unrealistic. I also said they'd make less than 5K units this year. I see no reason to doubt that prediction yet.
Did any 2018/19 Max pack res holders hear from Rivian on changing to Large pack? RJ said that would happen in January. Remember the 'early' 2022 update to our accounts? Recently on Twitter they dropped the 'early' and now we'll get an delivery window feature 'this year'.
Those are low expectations and would frankly be disappointing and concerning from a capability standpoint. Rivian shouldn't (and won't) be satisfied with stabilizing at 200 units/week. They are asking their suppliers to provide a great deal more than 10k units worth of components. They are building 2 models (3 if you count the vans, but that is a separate line). The different battery sizes are not the equivalent of additional models, more like a trim package (unless they are doing the 800/400V switching that some suspect).We really didn't need Elon to tell us how tough the transition to full-rate production (FRP) is; anyone who works in a complex manufacturing environment is all too familiar with the high degree of difficulty in getting the production rate up while keeping defects to a minimum.
Getting to a rate of 200 units per week is a significant goal and frankly, I think Rivian will struggle to get there anytime soon. They face very significant supply chain headwinds and substantial resource and personnel constraints. Adding to that are the self-inflicted impediments that come with running a brand-new production enterprise as now-public company while trying to build (and then staff) a second high-tech manufacturing facility. And let's not forget that Rivian also needs to find a way to build and deliver 10,000 EDVs this year while juggling all of that.
My guess is that we will not see R1T production get to an average of 200/week until later this year. If things go well, we may see production numbers average 20,000 annually by the end of 2023, hopefully with significant numbers of Max models and R1S's in the mix. Those of us waiting for the longer range R1S will likely not see those vehicles until production in Normal has stabilized. My guess is that means late 2024 and more likely 2025.
Not trying to be a curmudgeon, and I'd be happy to be proved wrong, but I really don't see Rivian getting to anything close to true FRP on what amounts to 4 separate models (R1T LR & Max, R1S LR & Longer Range) for a few years.
And to think 50 years ago, GM was cranking out a Vega in 29 seconds from start to finish. One would think that we wouldn't have gone into a predicament 50 years later in the industry like we are watching and reading. Rivian can't get an R1S made and in the press hand. Guess the only chips in the Vega were the paint. I thought the SUV would bolster their efforts and stock this 1st quarter, as they first said some would roll out in December, but it's not happening for a while. I have had a lot of cars over my 64.5 years and including five Saabs. I probably spent more money than I should, but I love driving a great car that is a bit different. Yep, even at my age. I remember GM finally gave Saab some money for R&D, and they came up with a beautiful 9-5 in 2010. They were great safe cars (actually one had issues) with superior safety rankings every year and would get 30 MPG for a few daughters of mine going off to college with their four-cylinder Turbos. Surprisingly, the few new ones like below were sold off, with no warranties and about 15-20K under MSRP from the dealers, so weird. I could not do it; GM did not have to guarantee parts for five years via some loophole, but what a waste of a beautiful-lookingWow, only 4 per truck. That is not maximizing the trucking load. It would help if you got 6 or 7 per trailer to get to the trucking depot.