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Discussion Starter · #1 ·
Sadly this week eV startup Arcimoto revealed they have run out of money and have temporarily suspended production.
They are attempting to sell additional stock to keep going forward.

This despite a lot of very positive news and buzz that Arcimoto has received the last 2 years. People seem to really like their product.

The stock market is in a big slump. Inflation is a real thing, and a recession may cause sales to flat line for a lot of companies, possibly even Rivian. AND Tesla has dramatic cut the price of a Model Y, which now qualifies for a $7500 tax credit. The net price of a Tesla Model Y has gone form $66,000 to $46,500. I imagine someone that is thinking of buying a Rivian R1S has to look hard at a $46,500 Model Y, even if the Rivian has more attractive features.

Rivian is burning a lot of Cash every quarter. What if the stock market doesn't allow them to sell more stock to raise funds? Or, new vehicle sales don't grow as they hoped because of the new, higher prices for an R1T or R1S?

Thoughts?
 

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R1S, Forrest Green/Black
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I would imagine people looking at the Rivian are not looking at the Model Y at all, much smaller, no where near as versatile and let's face it, UGLY. Tesla cut the price because they no longer qualified for the tax incentives, and they had some extra inventory, Elon can do this crap because he makes good profits on the vehicles.

I have never heard of Arcimoto, had to look them up. How many people are really in the market for something like that to begin with?
 

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Discussion Starter · #3 ·
I would imagine people looking at the Rivian are not looking at the Model Y at all, much smaller, no where near as versatile and let's face it, UGLY. Tesla cut the price because they no longer qualified for the tax incentives, and they had some extra inventory, Elon can do this crap because he makes good profits on the vehicles.

I have never heard of Arcimoto, had to look them up. How many people are really in the market for something like that to begin with?
I totally agree the R1S is not the same vehicle as the Model Y Long Range. But a Model Y Long Range at $46,500 vs an R1S at $78,000

That is one helluva of a price difference. For those that were on the fence about paying $78,000.
 

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Sadly this week eV startup Arcimoto revealed they have run out of money and have temporarily suspended production.
They are attempting to sell additional stock to keep going forward.

This despite a lot of very positive news and buzz that Arcimoto has received the last 2 years. People seem to really like their product.

The stock market is in a big slump. Inflation is a real thing, and a recession may cause sales to flat line for a lot of companies, possibly even Rivian. AND Tesla has dramatic cut the price of a Model Y, which now qualifies for a $7500 tax credit. The net price of a Tesla Model Y has gone form $66,000 to $46,500. I imagine someone that is thinking of buying a Rivian R1S has to look hard at a $46,500 Model Y, even if the Rivian has more attractive features.

Rivian is burning a lot of Cash every quarter. What if the stock market doesn't allow them to sell more stock to raise funds? Or, new vehicle sales don't grow as they hoped because of the new, higher prices for an R1T or R1S?

Thoughts?
A lot depends on how the delivery ramp goes in 2023. They are burning around 6 billion a year (1.5 billion a qtr), if they ramp up to 50k deliveries at 80k average they will generate 4 billion, that would make a huge difference in reduce cash burn and leave a lot more cash for the new mfg. plant.
 

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I totally agree the R1S is not the same vehicle as the Model Y Long Range. But a Model Y Long Range at $46,500 vs an R1S at $78,000

That is one helluva of a price difference. For those that were on the fence about paying $78,000.
I can’t imagine anyone buying an R1S if a Model Y meets their needs.

It would be interesting to see how many people fall into that category, the few people I know on the R1S waitlist that simply would not be an option and they would get a new ICE vehicle if they can’t swing the R1S or need a vehicle before the R1S is available for them.
 

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Discussion Starter · #6 ·
A lot depends on how the delivery ramp goes in 2023. They are burning around 6 billion a year (1.5 billion a qtr), if they ramp up to 50k deliveries at 80k average they will generate 4 billion, that would make a huge difference in reduce cash burn and leave a lot more cash for the new mfg. plant.
Ramping is key.

That is the $4 billion question. Will Rivian be able to deliver 50,000 vehicles in 2023. Although,$4 billion is gross sales. I don't know what the profit margin will be on 50,000 unit sales. Do they break even at 50,000 units?
 

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R1S, Forrest Green/Black
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I totally agree the R1S is not the same vehicle as the Model Y Long Range. But a Model Y Long Range at $46,500 vs an R1S at $78,000

That is one helluva of a price difference. For those that were on the fence about paying $78,000.
Why a model Y at 46k when I can get a civic for 22k? We can do this all day. I don't like Tesla's, don't like the look and was not looking at them at all. A R1S or R1T buyer is looking for something that size with those capabilities. I mean a 911 buyer can get a camera for much less too, but don't think they are the same buyers.
 

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Ramping is key.

That is the $4 billion question. Will Rivian be able to deliver 50,000 vehicles in 2023. Although,$4 billion is gross sales. I don't know what the profit margin will be on 50,000 unit sales. Do they break even at 50,000 units?
No they will not break even at 50k but would come close at 100-120k. At this point only care about gross and not profit. They are currently depleting cash from reserves so all of that gross income adds more back in the bucket and slows the burn rate.

If they can keep ramping as they are they will be ok but they really need to shorten the time from off the line to in customer hands. That is a lot of carrying costs for completed vehicles if they sit on the factory lot or in service centers for 2 or 3 months.

I just got a VIN for an R1S that I think was built in October based on a similar VIN on Cars and Bids that seems to still be on the lot in Normal and they say 6 to 8 weeks, that means they have a sale-able vehicle that potentially will have come off the line 4 months before they get money for it.
 

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Will Rivian be able to deliver 50,000 vehicles in 2023. Although,$4 billion is gross sales. I don't know what the profit margin will be on 50,000 unit sales. Do they break even at 50,000 units?
1) Yes. Their run rate is already > 50k/year. Even with no manufacturing improvements they should exceed 50k. Modulo supply chain issues, but I think they have sufficient upside production capability to offset that.
2) No. But the business plan has always planned a loss for the first few years of production - having a loss of the correct size means they are right on track where they planned to be.
 

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Discussion Starter · #10 ·
No they will not break even at 50k but would come close at 100-120k. At this point only care about gross and not profit. They are currently depleting cash from reserves so all of that gross income adds more back in the bucket and slows the burn rate.

If they can keep ramping as they are they will be ok but they really need to shorten the time from off the line to in customer hands. That is a lot of carrying costs for completed vehicles if they sit on the factory lot or in service centers for 2 or 3 months.

I just got a VIN for an R1S that I think was built in October based on a similar VIN on Cars and Bids that seems to still be on the lot in Normal and they say 6 to 8 weeks, that means they have a sale-able vehicle that potentially will have come off the line 4 months before they get money for it.
Just an FYI, if it costs you $5 billion, to generate $4 billion in gross revenues, you are still burning cash. Albeit slower.

Which is a good thing as I wait for my April 2019 Max Pack reservation...
 

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Just an FYI ... you are still burning cash
Well just an FYI, when you build a business like a car manufacturer, there is no way to do it without losing money for years because you have to build billion dollar facilities and pay 10,000 employees and buy machines and materials etc. That's why you have investment up front, and a plan and timeline for growth and eventual return of the initial investment and beyond. What matters is only that Rivian is on track to meet the milestones in that plan it sold to investors. And for many years it will continue to lose money even when ahead of where it planned to be. Losing money is not "bad" in this case, it is expected and planned for.

By comparison, it took Amazon 14 years to turn a profit. It took Tesla 17 years. You're writing Rivian off because it hasn't achieved profitability after 1 year of sales?
 

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Which is a good thing as I wait for my April 2019 Max Pack reservation
Since you brought it up ... If you want to get technical, NO ONE had a Max Pack reservation in 2019. Until the configurator opened up in Nov 2020, the most you could do was express a preference for a R1T or R1S, nothing else. While in your own mind you may have wanted a Max Pack, Rivian did not collect that information and did not keep track of that information when they took pre-orders prior to the configurator.

Your wait up to this point is entirely expected and reasonable - when you configured a Max Pack you were told it wouldn't ship until after the LE vehicles, which translates to at least 1 year after production started in earnest. Back in Nov 2020 that meant 4Q22 was the earliest you could have expected to receive a Max Pack. If you're going to continue to wait for a Quad Max Pack, then the clock on the delay started just a few weeks ago, not back in 2019.

I'm still waiting for the flying cars and robot maids that they promised me before the end of the 20th century...
 

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Please don't forget that $5-6B in expenses is the expansion of both the Normal and Georgia Plant. Actual operating expenses (to produce the trucks) is closer to $2B. I expect expenses for for 2023 to be around $2-3B if they don't buy a 3rd plant or have significantly more expenses for the GA plant.
 

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I bought a Model Y Performance after the March price increase, selling my LE reservation in disgust, only to have them reverse course days later. I've been very happy w/ it, as it meets most of my needs, plus traveling isn't an issue with the Supercharger network. I have a Bronco Badlands Sasquatch for when I want to get dirty!
 

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I bought a Model Y Performance after the March price increase, selling my LE reservation in disgust, only to have them reverse course days later. I've been very happy w/ it, as it meets most of my needs, plus traveling isn't an issue with the Supercharger network. I have a Bronco Badlands Sasquatch for when I want to get dirty!
congrats !
 

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Sadly this week eV startup Arcimoto revealed they have run out of money and have temporarily suspended production. They are attempting to sell additional stock to keep going forward. This despite a lot of very positive news and buzz that Arcimoto has received the last 2 years. People seem to really like their product. The stock market is in a big slump. Inflation is a real thing, and a recession may cause sales to flat line for a lot of companies, possibly even Rivian. AND Tesla has dramatic cut the price of a Model Y, which now qualifies for a $7500 tax credit. The net price of a Tesla Model Y has gone form $66,000 to $46,500. I imagine someone that is thinking of buying a Rivian R1S has to look hard at a $46,500 Model Y, even if the Rivian has more attractive features. Rivian is burning a lot of Cash every quarter. What if the stock market doesn't allow them to sell more stock to raise funds? Or, new vehicle sales don't grow as they hoped because of the new, higher prices for an R1T or R1S? Thoughts?
If there is one thing Rivian and RJ have shown us, it’s that they are building the company to last. They are not a fad EV start up, and seem to be conservative financially and patient in making critical decisions. I believe management trumps macro economics most of the time…and Rivian is well managed in my opinion.
 

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I bought a Model Y Performance after the March price increase, selling my LE reservation in disgust, only to have them reverse course days later. I've been very happy w/ it, as it meets most of my needs, plus traveling isn't an issue with the Supercharger network. I have a Bronco Badlands Sasquatch for when I want to get dirty!
Happy to hear you are good with your choice on the Tesla. I have both in my garage and there is no comparison. The Tesla has 30k miles on it after 3 years and has never charged outside the garage. The Rivian has been on many adventures, towed my boat, my travel trailer, hauled stuff from Ikea, hauled work trailers and gone fishing, hunting, camping and spent many frustrating hours on the crappy supercharging network (different issue).

Only one question: Why are you hanging out on the Rivian forums if you gave up years ago? :unsure::unsure:
 
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