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There are probably about 40k on preorder. Ram, GM, Ford are all trying to chip away at the truck/off-road EV market.

Just curious where everyone sees Rivian in 5 years? I am hoping they are a true automotive contender but can also see them as a fleet provider to Amazon and anyone else that needs the vehicle.

Ironically, I listened to this talk about how the future of EV was fleet vehicles.

 

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I think they are defining their own space within the market. The bigger threat to them, IMO, would be an all electric Range Rover or something of that caliber. Yeah, Ford/Chevy/Dodge might chip away some market share, but they don’t seem to be marketing to that audience.
 

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Here's one possible five-year scenario:

The rollout of Rivian consumer vehicles (R1T & R1S) proves more challenging than expected, with only a handful delivered in 2021. Deliveries in 2022 are greater in number, but are plagued with quality control issues that prove to be a large drain on Rivian cash reserves. The late deliveries and quality issues also dampen sales, with many pre-order holders cancelling. The Amazon trucks have many of the same issues during 2022. The Rivian IPO which could have brought in $70bn, has to be postponed.

Rivian, between a rock and a hard place, decides to concentrate on its bread & butter, delivery trucks, and starts to shop its consumer vehicle unit around. GM, having already tied up with Honda on electric vehicles generally, and electric SUVs specifically, passes on a Rivian rescue. Ditto from the other major auto makers. While there is interest from smaller EV makers, none have the financial wherewithal.

One of the original Rivian investors, Ford, steps back in however and in early 2023, with Rivan deliveries still struggling, announces that they have purchased the consumer vehicles operation from Rivian. While some of the Ford electric vehicles like the F150 Lightning and eMustang are runaway best sellers by 2023, its Lincoln sister division has seen its sales plummet. In essentially buying the R1S and R1T platforms, Ford can now rebadge them as Lincolns, something it had considered doing way back in 2018 when it had a modest tie-up with Rivian.

Five years from now, I can see Rivian surviving and thriving as an EV commercial truck maker, with it's Amazon truck experience providing a springboard to other larger, heavier commercial vehicles. Having jettisoned consumer vehicles, Rivian was able to focus on trucks and produce a quality long-haul vehicle that the market preferred over its Tesla rival.

Meanwhile, Ford was able to bring its considerable auto-making acumen to bear on the new L(for Lincoln)1T and L1S models, quickly fixing the quality and production problems. While the new Lincoln models had to contend with the Hummer, the less expensive and technoligically solid L1S quickly became the EV of choice for those looking for larger SUVs in the sub $100k range. Sales of the Lincoln L1S are brisk, with the customers being those looking to replace their ICE Escalades and Suburbans and who tired of JLR quality issues on their Range Rovers. The L1T is less successful, but with Stellantis late to the party with its EV Ram, and little other serious luxury pickup competition, still does pretty well.

Finally, by 2026, charging stations outnumber gas stations which are serving fewer and fewer cars and trucks as sales of ICE vehicles decline year on year.
 

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  • If Rivian R1T/R1S survive they will be high end niche vehicles and not produced in high volume. They are not vehicles targeted for the masses.
  • Very low production numbers through 2022 and well into 2023 but reasonably positive reviews. High volume production is not a priority except for service vehicles.
  • IPO delayed until mid to late 2022 after the data (reviews) for the Amazon vans and a few R1T/R1S. Assuming the reviews are reasonably good. The IPO will be less than 70bn but enough to keep Rivian afloat.
  • 5 years from now Rivian will probably not exist as Rivian.
 

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I would tell you but my crystal ball is broken.

On a serious note, probably with 5-6 vehicles selling throughout North America, Europe with maybe one only for China considering the trend playing out currently.
 

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Turns out I was on the ball. Rivian wants to launch up to 6 vehicles by 2025:

"Scaringe in 2019 said Rivian was looking to launch up to six vehicles by 2025. ... One of these is thought to be a performance-oriented SUV smaller than the R1S. Rivian's sole plant at present is a former Mitsubishi plant located in Normal, Illinois."
.
 

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Turns out I was on the ball. Rivian wants to launch up to 6 vehicles by 2025:

"Scaringe in 2019 said Rivian was looking to launch up to six vehicles by 2025. ... One of these is thought to be a performance-oriented SUV smaller than the R1S. Rivian's sole plant at present is a former Mitsubishi plant located in Normal, Illinois."
.
If they do make EVs for specific markets in Europe and Asia, it'll be interesting to see where they set up shop for new plants. I don't think they've decided yet on any new locations.
 

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There are probably about 40k on preorder. Ram, GM, Ford are all trying to chip away at the truck/off-road EV market.

Just curious where everyone sees Rivian in 5 years? I am hoping they are a true automotive contender but can also see them as a fleet provider to Amazon and anyone else that needs the vehicle.

Ironically, I listened to this talk about how the future of EV was fleet vehicles.

just as in history pass, ALL the electric auto manufacturers were bought out in 1910-1911by the majors. The same will happen in the next decade.
 

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That's unlikely to happen here unless Rivian really drops the ball. The market is valuing startup EV manufacturers much higher than comparably sized traditional manufacturers.

No manufacturers can come close to acquiring Tesla at its current valuation and the same is likely to apply to Rivian. Even at the $80b IPO price that rules it out for most companies.
 

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Van:
  • 50k delivered to Amazon
  • Orders open to other fleet operators and the public
  • Annual production of over 30k units
R1T/R1S:
  • 50k - 75k sales each per year
  • possibly higher sales if they can drop prices by $15k - $20k (e.g. 250 miles battery)
Future Vehicles:
  • Hot hatch (primarily to appeal to the European market) - estimate 200k annual sales after ramp
  • Smaller/cheaper SUV or crossover - estimate 300k annual sales after ramp
Factories:
  • Normal - production capacity 200k
  • Texas - production capacity 300k
  • UK - production capacity 400k
  • Possible 4th plant under construction (possibly Asia)
Stock Price:
  • Market cap of $200b+ assuming no major issues
 

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Props on the optimistic scenarios @RivianDude. I hope you're right, or at least more right than my earlier, pretty darkly speculative post is.

It's pretty clear that folks want EV's and Rivian certainly seems well-positioned to succeed. Their vehicles have top-notch design and perform very well, as the recent MT reviews of the R1T indicate. They've chosen their target market wisely and have taken time to try and get things right. The most important thing now is for Rivian to execute execute well and not loose focus, something that the impending IPO has great potential to do IMO. I hope that they continue to be the anti-Tesla EV maker by concentrating on build quality and after-sales support.

All that said, no one can accurately predict what will happen with Rivian and frankly, history is not on their - or any new automotive start-up's - side. Even a behmoth like GM failed at getting a new car company (Saturn) off the ground. So far however, Rivian is [mostly] doing all the right things and as I said above, seems pretty well-positioned for success.
 

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Here's one possible five-year scenario:

The rollout of Rivian consumer vehicles (R1T & R1S) proves more challenging than expected, with only a handful delivered in 2021. Deliveries in 2022 are greater in number, but are plagued with quality control issues that prove to be a large drain on Rivian cash reserves. The late deliveries and quality issues also dampen sales, with many pre-order holders cancelling. The Amazon trucks have many of the same issues during 2022. The Rivian IPO which could have brought in $70bn, has to be postponed.

Rivian, between a rock and a hard place, decides to concentrate on its bread & butter, delivery trucks, and starts to shop its consumer vehicle unit around. GM, having already tied up with Honda on electric vehicles generally, and electric SUVs specifically, passes on a Rivian rescue. Ditto from the other major auto makers. While there is interest from smaller EV makers, none have the financial wherewithal.

One of the original Rivian investors, Ford, steps back in however and in early 2023, with Rivan deliveries still struggling, announces that they have purchased the consumer vehicles operation from Rivian. While some of the Ford electric vehicles like the F150 Lightning and eMustang are runaway best sellers by 2023, its Lincoln sister division has seen its sales plummet. In essentially buying the R1S and R1T platforms, Ford can now rebadge them as Lincolns, something it had considered doing way back in 2018 when it had a modest tie-up with Rivian.

Five years from now, I can see Rivian surviving and thriving as an EV commercial truck maker, with it's Amazon truck experience providing a springboard to other larger, heavier commercial vehicles. Having jettisoned consumer vehicles, Rivian was able to focus on trucks and produce a quality long-haul vehicle that the market proffered over its Tesla rival.

Meanwhile, Ford was able to bring its considerable auto-making acumen to bear on the new L(for Lincoln)1T and L1S models, quickly fixing the quality and production problems. While the new Lincoln models had to contend with the Hummer, the less expensive and technoligically solid L1S quickly became the EV of choice for those looking for larger SUVs in the sub $100k range. Sales of the Lincoln L1S are brisk, with the customers being those looking to replace their ICE Escalades and Suburbans and who tired of JLR quality issues on their Range Rovers. The L1T is less successful, but with Stellantis late to the party with its EV Ram, and little other serious luxury pickup competition, still does pretty well.

Meanwhile, by 2026, charging stations outnumber gas stations which are serving fewer and fewer cars and trucks as sales of ICE vehicles decline year on year.
Here's one possible five-year scenario:

The rollout of Rivian consumer vehicles (R1T & R1S) proves more challenging than expected, with only a handful delivered in 2021. Deliveries in 2022 are greater in number, but are plagued with quality control issues that prove to be a large drain on Rivian cash reserves. The late deliveries and quality issues also dampen sales, with many pre-order holders cancelling. The Amazon trucks have many of the same issues during 2022. The Rivian IPO which could have brought in $70bn, has to be postponed.

Rivian, between a rock and a hard place, decides to concentrate on its bread & butter, delivery trucks, and starts to shop its consumer vehicle unit around. GM, having already tied up with Honda on electric vehicles generally, and electric SUVs specifically, passes on a Rivian rescue. Ditto from the other major auto makers. While there is interest from smaller EV makers, none have the financial wherewithal.

One of the original Rivian investors, Ford, steps back in however and in early 2023, with Rivan deliveries still struggling, announces that they have purchased the consumer vehicles operation from Rivian. While some of the Ford electric vehicles like the F150 Lightning and eMustang are runaway best sellers by 2023, its Lincoln sister division has seen its sales plummet. In essentially buying the R1S and R1T platforms, Ford can now rebadge them as Lincolns, something it had considered doing way back in 2018 when it had a modest tie-up with Rivian.

Five years from now, I can see Rivian surviving and thriving as an EV commercial truck maker, with it's Amazon truck experience providing a springboard to other larger, heavier commercial vehicles. Having jettisoned consumer vehicles, Rivian was able to focus on trucks and produce a quality long-haul vehicle that the market proffered over its Tesla rival.

Meanwhile, Ford was able to bring its considerable auto-making acumen to bear on the new L(for Lincoln)1T and L1S models, quickly fixing the quality and production problems. While the new Lincoln models had to contend with the Hummer, the less expensive and technoligically solid L1S quickly became the EV of choice for those looking for larger SUVs in the sub $100k range. Sales of the Lincoln L1S are brisk, with the customers being those looking to replace their ICE Escalades and Suburbans and who tired of JLR quality issues on their Range Rovers. The L1T is less successful, but with Stellantis late to the party with its EV Ram, and little other serious luxury pickup competition, still does pretty well.

Meanwhile, by 2026, charging stations outnumber gas stations which are serving fewer and fewer cars and trucks as sales of ICE vehicles decline year on year.
I think this entirely possible. Manufacturing trucks is a lot harder than making prototypes. I don’t think charging stations will outnumber gas stations by 2026. Maybe by 2036.
 

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  • If Rivian R1T/R1S survive they will be high end niche vehicles and not produced in high volume. They are not vehicles targeted for the masses.
  • Very low production numbers through 2022 and well into 2023 but reasonably positive reviews. High volume production is not a priority except for service vehicles.
  • IPO delayed until mid to late 2022 after the data (reviews) for the Amazon vans and a few R1T/R1S. Assuming the reviews are reasonably good. The IPO will be less than 70bn but enough to keep Rivian afloat.
  • 5 years from now Rivian will probably not exist as Rivian.
Very possible they will be gone. Just to expensive for the market to the masses.
 

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Very possible they will be gone. Just to expensive for the market to the masses.
Their plan is to show off their vision and then market a more mainstream vehicle. Pretty much like Tesla's initial strategy. The R2T/R2S generation should hit a more popular price level. If not then they have no one to blame but themselves. Lucid's in the same boat. A great $120K vehicle but not scaleable without a more popular price point.
 
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