[Victerry]

Many other car manufacturers, when they introduce a new model, will call it the following year model, not the year it actually came out.

There is no reason for all Rivians not to be 2022 models. Very few will be delivered in 2021 anyway, maybe 30,000? So why not just make it a 2022 model and be done with. Think about it Scaringe, exactly when will they become 2022 models? On January 1st. 2022? So I got mine at Xmas 2021, and in 6 days I could have gotten a 2022 model?

It makes a difference I think!

 

[eHauler]

Many other car manufacturers, when they introduce a new model, will call it the following year model, not the year it actually came out.

There is no reason for all Rivians not to be 2022 models. Very few will be delivered in 2021 anyway, maybe 30,000? So why not just make it a 2022 model and be done with. Think about it Scaringe, exactly when will they become 2022 models? On January 1st. 2022? So I got mine at Xmas 2021, and in 6 days I could have gotten a 2022 model?

It makes a difference I think!

Although that would better reflect when first R1T and R1S deliveries will happen, Rivian couldn't plan for these delays. They happen and its likely that things were set in stone long before they had a clear picture of the actual timeline.

 

[Sultanum]

Why does it matter? Truth is that Rivian is way ahead of the curve compared to most cars. The model year is totally irrelevant. That is why Teslas keep value so well when compared to other vehicles.

I have kept all my cars from 3 to 5 years. Something that my father told me to do. I am planning on keeping my Rivian for 10 years. That is why I don't mind paying more. Long term I will be saving money.

 

[Rivian-WI]

It matters for resale. Selling a 2022 is going to go 'higher' than a 2021.
And depending on some banks and when you need the loan, it might matter. If you end up getting your 2021 vehicle in December of 2023, might not be considered new.
I for one agree they should be calling them 2022 at this point.

 

[Sultanum]

It matters for resale. Selling a 2022 is going to go 'higher' than a 2021.
And depending on some banks and when you need the loan, it might matter. If you end up getting your 2021 vehicle in December of 2023, might not be considered new.
I for one agree they should be calling them 2022 at this point.

This is a good point. I still think the resale market is going to be different though.

 

[Rivian-WI]

Since they dropped the leasing option, that is telling me that they cannot figure out the resale value. Or it does not have a good outlook.
Does anyone know how resale on Teslas look?
(I know their lease vs loan amounts look good, that makes me think they have good resale)

 

[Wildabeest]

At least in the early days, Tesla used the manufacture date as the model year. I took delivery of my Model S in Sept of 2015, and it was a 2015 model. Most other big car manufacturers has already switched to their 2016 models. Given how automobile manufacturing is becoming more agile and allowing for changes more frequently than once a year, I think we’ll gradually see a shift to using the manufacture date as the model year. Especially for new companies that don’t are already vested in the “old way”.

 

[Yossarian]

Many other car manufacturers, when they introduce a new model, will call it the following year model, not the year it actually came out.

There is no reason for all Rivians not to be 2022 models. Very few will be delivered in 2021 anyway, maybe 30,000? So why not just make it a 2022 model and be done with. Think about it Scaringe, exactly when will they become 2022 models? On January 1st. 2022? So I got mine at Xmas 2021, and in 6 days I could have gotten a 2022 model?

It makes a difference I think!

I would prefer that the model and calendar years be the same but understand that until all manufacturers adopt this, resale values are likely to be negatively affected for cars that use calendar year identification.

While I agree that relatively few Rivians will be delivered in 2021, I believe that the number will be far less than 30,000. It would be difficult for Rivian to produce that many cars in a year - the equivalent of 83 or so per day assuming a full calendar year - and they'd need to do it in their very first year of operation.

I'd love to be proven wrong but suspect that Rivian will struggle to make and deliver even 5,000 cars in 2021. From mid-2008 to the end of 2009, Tesla's first year of production, they delivered less than 1,000 cars. It took 4 years, from mid-2008 to 2012, for Tesla to deliver 5,000 cars. For Rivian to deliver 5,000 cars in their first year seems pretty impressive in light of the Tesla experience.

I'm OK with Rivian ramping up slowly if they use the time to fine-tune production quality, something that Tesla continues to struggle with to the present.

 

[inkedsphynx]

I would prefer that the model and calendar years be the same but understand that until all manufacturers adopt this, resale values are likely to be negatively affected for cars that use calendar year identification.

While I agree that relatively few Rivians will be delivered in 2021, I believe that the number will be far less than 30,000. It would be difficult for Rivian to produce that many cars in a year - the equivalent of 83 or so per day assuming a full calendar year - and they'd need to do it in their very first year of operation.

I'd love to be proven wrong but suspect that Rivian will struggle to make and deliver even 5,000 cars in 2021. From mid-2008 to the end of 2009, Tesla's first year of production, they delivered less than 1,000 cars. It took 4 years, from mid-2008 to 2012, for Tesla to deliver 5,000 cars. For Rivian to deliver 5,000 cars in their first year seems pretty impressive in light of the Tesla experience.

I'm OK with Rivian ramping up slowly if they use the time to fine-tune production quality, something that Tesla continues to struggle with to the present.

I don't think you can really compare Tesla in 2008/2009 to Rivian currently, given that Tesla at that time didn't yet have a major manufacturing facility (Fremont wasn't purchased yet) and they weren't building true consumer-level cars - in 2008/09 it was the Roadster. Tesla specifically chose to only ever make about 2500 Roadsters.

They didn't start producing the Model S until 2012/13 and even that was/is a lower-run vehicle. It wasn't until 2015 that they started producing what I would call a true (though still spendy) consumer vehicle, with the X. I would call the X the first Tesla vehicle that has the type of market-segment appeal that the R1T/R1S have.

I'm not optimistic that Rivian will produce more than about 5k in the first 6 months, but I don't think Rivian in 'Year 1' can be compared to Tesla in 'Year 1' if you're calling 08/09 'Year 1' of Tesla.

 

[FanFLelectric]

I would prefer that the model and calendar years be the same but understand that until all manufacturers adopt this, resale values are likely to be negatively affected for cars that use calendar year identification.

While I agree that relatively few Rivians will be delivered in 2021, I believe that the number will be far less than 30,000. It would be difficult for Rivian to produce that many cars in a year - the equivalent of 83 or so per day assuming a full calendar year - and they'd need to do it in their very first year of operation.

I'd love to be proven wrong but suspect that Rivian will struggle to make and deliver even 5,000 cars in 2021. From mid-2008 to the end of 2009, Tesla's first year of production, they delivered less than 1,000 cars. It took 4 years, from mid-2008 to 2012, for Tesla to deliver 5,000 cars. For Rivian to deliver 5,000 cars in their first year seems pretty impressive in light of the Tesla experience.

I'm OK with Rivian ramping up slowly if they use the time to fine-tune production quality, something that Tesla continues to struggle with to the present.

Your comparison is not valid, Tesla was still in development in those early years with little capital. Rivian has capital, it has been in development for four years already. Rivian is contracted with Amazon to build several tens of thousand delivery vans in next few years. There will be several thousand R1T's built before the first R1S is shipped from Normal.

 

[Victerry]

Although that would better reflect when first R1T and R1S deliveries will happen, Rivian couldn't plan for these delays. They happen and its likely that things were set in stone long before they had a clear picture of the actual timeline.

No if it were set in stone, we would have 2020 models, because I was initially promised delivery at the end of 2019! I assumed it would be a 2020 model, so no, not cast in stone, I think that no one has raised the question!

 

[Victerry]

I would prefer that the model and calendar years be the same but understand that until all manufacturers adopt this, resale values are likely to be negatively affected for cars that use calendar year identification.

While I agree that relatively few Rivians will be delivered in 2021, I believe that the number will be far less than 30,000. It would be difficult for Rivian to produce that many cars in a year - the equivalent of 83 or so per day assuming a full calendar year - and they'd need to do it in their very first year of operation.

I'd love to be proven wrong but suspect that Rivian will struggle to make and deliver even 5,000 cars in 2021. From mid-2008 to the end of 2009, Tesla's first year of production, they delivered less than 1,000 cars. It took 4 years, from mid-2008 to 2012, for Tesla to deliver 5,000 cars. For Rivian to deliver 5,000 cars in their first year seems pretty impressive in light of the Tesla experience.

I'm OK with Rivian ramping up slowly if they use the time to fine-tune production quality, something that Tesla continues to struggle with to the present.

Yeah thanks for your input. I have no idea about production and you clarified it. It just confirms what I said, Just make them all 2022 models.

 

[Victerry]

At least in the early days, Tesla used the manufacture date as the model year. I took delivery of my Model S in Sept of 2015, and it was a 2015 model. Most other big car manufacturers has already switched to their 2016 models. Given how automobile manufacturing is becoming more agile and allowing for changes more frequently than once a year, I think we’ll gradually see a shift to using the manufacture date as the model year. Especially for new companies that don’t are already vested in the “old way”.

Well I just took delivery of my 2021 Model Y on November 26th, 2020. So Tesla is changing with the times, Rivian should too.

 

[Victerry]

Why does it matter? Truth is that Rivian is way ahead of the curve compared to most cars. The model year is totally irrelevant. That is why Teslas keep value so well when compared to other vehicles.

I have kept all my cars from 3 to 5 years. Something that my father told me to do. I am planning on keeping my Rivian for 10 years. That is why I don't mind paying more. Long term I will be saving money.

Yeah, that's you, I may want to sell mine after a couple of years, and then it will make a difference if it's a 2021 or 2022 model.

 

[eHauler]

Why does it matter? Truth is that Rivian is way ahead of the curve compared to most cars. The model year is totally irrelevant. That is why Teslas keep value so well when compared to other vehicles.

I have kept all my cars from 3 to 5 years. Something that my father told me to do. I am planning on keeping my Rivian for 10 years. That is why I don't mind paying more. Long term I will be saving money.

10 years is long, are you concerned about what battery degradation will be like?

 

[Sultanum]

10 years is long, are you concerned about what battery degradation will be like?

Not that much. For one I trust Rivian will do a good job with the batteries and I don't drive that much. Like 10k miles per year or so. Second, after 5 years or so this will probably become a second car that won't be used for trips. Like my BMW i3 is used now. At least that is the plan.
Third, I saw somewhere that Rivian can replace each battery individually. So if gets too bad we may be able to do that like in 6 or 7 years. Specially if battery price really goes down.

 

[eHauler]

Not that much. For one I trust Rivian will do a good job with the batteries and I don't drive that much. Like 10k miles per year or so. Second, after 5 years or so this will probably become a second car that won't be used for trips. Like my BMW i3 is used now. At least that is the plan.
Third, I saw somewhere that Rivian can replace each battery individually. So if gets too bad we may be able to do that like in 6 or 7 years. Specially if battery price really goes down.

Great points.
I completely forgot about an important one and that is charging infrastructure. 5 years from now it will be vastly different from today and will cut down on range anxiety lot. Have you looked at what plans for that are like near you?

 

[Sultanum]

Great points.
I completely forgot about an important one and that is charging infrastructure. 5 years from now it will be vastly different from today and will cut down on range anxiety lot. Have you looked at what plans for that are like near you?

You are totally right about the infrastructure. Even if the range goes from 300+ to 200 miles after some years, with good infrastructure that is still plenty.

I am located in Richmond VA. My trips usually take me to the I-64 or the I-95. Both are reasonably well covered. I haven't looked into future plans. But that is a good point and I will check it out.

 

[Chris S]

Since they dropped the leasing option, that is telling me that they cannot figure out the resale value. Or it does not have a good outlook.

It takes a whole different set of resources, skills, knowledge, etc. to create and run a leasing program than it does to engineer, produce, and sell vehicles. From state/federal legislative compliance, to legal, funding, securitization, returns, disposition, etc.

IMO Rivian is wise to focus on their core mission for now which is getting revenue in the door. There is nothing stopping customers from arranging 3rd party leases.