[R99]

Assuming that Tesla is able to stick with its $39,900 starting price for the Cybertruck (and that's a BIG if), do you think it will affect the amount of orders Rivian gets for the R1T?

I get that the design is ridiculous and it's fun to rip on it, but at that price I can see some people cancelling their deposits and switching to the Tesla. Especially with Musk claiming there's 250,000 pre-orders for the Cybertruck.

https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-reports-250000-pre-orders-for-tesla-cybertruck-2019-11

 

[davrow_R1T]

Price, yes, but also availability. Rivian should be in production much sooner, which will sway many fence-sitters.

 

[JimmyEV]

Price, yes, but also availability. Rivian should be in production much sooner, which will sway many fence-sitters.

I agree with that, if Tesla starts ramping things up with the Cybertruck it could shift people who are undecided. Rivian needs to do something to bring the attention back on them and the R1T. Especially with all this stuff between Tesla and Ford now.

 

[Yossarian]

I hate the looks of the CT, but have a pre-order in place for one reason: Range. I plan to tow a camper, and although the load is small and reasonably aerodynamic (stand-up teardrop, about 2,500 lbs with water and propane), I still need as much range as possible.

I've configured my R1T with the Max battery pack, which will probably give me about 225 miles of range while towing, assuming a decrement of 25% for the camper and 90/20 charging. The CT with Tri-motor will yield about 270 mil$es using the same assumptions.

The cost of the two vehicles is about the same assuming that the $7,500 tax credit is still available when the R1T Max is released. Delivery of either won't be until 2022, so that's not a differentiator. Capability is roughly comparable - though the larger bed of the CT does get it some points. I will also say that the stainless exterior of the CT does have great utility, and so has some appeal. The question really boils down to whether getting an additional 50 miles of range is worth putting up with the CT looks, which I think will vie with the Pontiac Aztec for the title of "Ugliest Car of the 21st Century."

 

[CommodoreAmiga]

Honestly, I don't think price is much of a factor for most people when it comes to CT vs R1T.

The styling on the CT is so polarizing that you either love it so much that nothing else will do... Or you hate it so much that you wouldn't buy it even if it was half the price.

 

[SANZCO2]

Honestly, I don't think price is much of a factor for most people when it comes to CT vs R1T.

The styling on the CT is so polarizing that you either love it so much that nothing else will do... Or you hate it so much that you wouldn't buy it even if it was half the price.

I also do not think the CT will be 40k for the 500 mile range, I think the long range CT will be closer to 70k and the 40k will be closer to 250 range. Tesla is notorious for being late on every model by 12-24 months so best guess is late 2022 early 2023 For CT.

The two vehicles are targeted at such different markets and there will be enough demand, I do not see it being an issue for either Tesla or Rivian. I think Ford is way more likely to impact the Tesla CT market depending on when they both make their vehicles available in quantity. Although Tesla still has a leg up with the supercharger network.

 

[eHauler]

The way I see it, the vast majority of people interested in the R1T, F-150, or any traditional pickup will not switch to the CT. Its for a completely different buyer mindset Looking into exactly who will be buying them should be interesting. This article is a good start.

https://cleantechnica.com/2019/11/28/who-is-actually-going-to-buy-a-tesla-cybertruck/

 

[Mr. Gee]

Not sure what Tesla's release strategy will be like. The Model 3 was announced as the "low-cost" Tesla, but the lowest-priced ones didn't start production for nearly two years. I can't see $39,000 Cybertrucks being the first off the line or even showing up in volume until the more expensive orders can be fulfilled. Tesla's PR machine is good but they're weaker on the back end.

 

[Sultanum]

I plan on getting the 40k CT down the road as a second car for home improvement and such. I am getting the R1S as a family/trip/wife car.

Unless Rivian can lower the price of the R1T to around 40k in the smaller battery pack. Or truly there's a extend cab cheaper version been designed, the price does make me go for the Tesla truck.

 

[Mr. Gee]

I plan on getting the 40k CT down the road as a second car for home improvement and such. I am getting the R1S as a family/trip/wife car.

Unless Rivian can lower the price of the R1T to around 40k in the smaller battery pack. Or truly there's a extend cab cheaper version been designed, the price does make me go for the Tesla truck.

Again, it's just a matter of "when." Tesla has not yet identified start of production for their trucks. It's announcement grabbed lots of attention but I doubt you'll see a $40,000 Cybertruck before 2023 (you're guaranteed to see the most expensive ones first), by which time some level of competition is likely to exist at that price point. Maybe not from Rivian, but things are starting to move for others on the horizon.

 

[Sultanum]

I agree the cheaper CT will only come around 2023-24, but that actually bolds well for my timeline.

Regarding competition, I disagree. Any truck that would be under production in 2 years, would already be well advanced by now. The competition I see coming is for the more expensive EV trucks. The only companies that are in position to have a cheap electric truck by 2023 IMO are Tesla, Rivian and Ford. There's still time and I will keep an eye of course, but I really doubt someone else entering this market any time soon.

Again, it's just a matter of "when." Tesla has not yet identified start of production for their trucks. It's announcement grabbed lots of attention but I doubt you'll see a $40,000 Cybertruck before 2023 (you're guaranteed to see the most expensive ones first), by which time some level of competition is likely to exist at that price point. Maybe not from Rivian, but things are starting to move for others on the horizon.

 

[CommodoreAmiga]

I agree the cheaper CT will only come around 2023-24, but that actually bolds well for my timeline.

Regarding competition, I disagree. Any truck that would be under production in 2 years, would already be well advanced by now. The competition I see coming is for the more expensive EV trucks. The only companies that are in position to have a cheap electric truck by 2023 IMO are Tesla, Rivian and Ford. There's still time and I will keep an eye of course, but I really doubt someone else entering this market any time soon.

GM could do it, if they wanted to. They may hold out another year or two so they avoid competing with their own Hummer EV... But they already have the tech. In many ways, I'd say GM is ahead of Ford.

 

[Mr. Gee]

Regarding competition, I disagree. Any truck that would be under production in 2 years, would already be well advanced by now. The competition I see coming is for the more expensive EV trucks. The only companies that are in position to have a cheap electric truck by 2023 IMO are Tesla, Rivian and Ford.

You're view is a little narrow. China's EV companies are innovating pretty quickly. Lordstown may well have a consumer vehicle pretty soon and frankly, anyone with a EV program can pivot to pickups in a couple of years, even if they aren't sharing that information publicly.

 

[azbill]

GM could do it, if they wanted to. They may hold out another year or two so they avoid competing with their own Hummer EV... But they already have the tech. In many ways, I'd say GM is ahead of Ford.

GM is already talking about building a second new Ultium battery plant and has annoucned EV verisons of the Sierra/Silverado, but without a definitive timeline. The Hummer SUV will be reavealed on April 3, I just got the email about that.

 

[CommodoreAmiga]

GM is already talking about building a second new Ultium battery plant and has annoucned EV verisons of the Sierra/Silverado, but without a definitive timeline. The Hummer SUV will be reavealed on April 3, I just got the email about that.

right, that's what I was saying. GM could release the Sierra/Silverado EV much sooner, but they aren't because of marketing reasons -- not because of a lack of technical competency.

 

[Sultanum]

I think "can do" and "will do" are very different things. They could sell the Hummer for 40k. But why they would do that?

The truth is that no one is building full size trucks to compete on the 40k price range. Tesla is the only company that is marketing that and it's part of their long term goal of building affordable EVs.

Internationally is even less likely. Every US manufacturer downsize when going to the international market. I really can't see an international company building a full size EV truck to enter the US market anytime soon.

Anyways, I wish I am wrong and by 2023 I have options for a cheap EV truck🙂!

 

[R99]

I think "can do" and "will do" are very different things. They could sell the Hummer for 40k. But why they would do that?

The truth is that no one is building full size trucks to compete on the 40k price range. Tesla is the only company that is marketing that and it's part of their long term goal of building affordable EVs.

Internationally is even less likely. Every US manufacturer downsize when going to the international market. I really can't see an international company building a full size EV truck to enter the US market anytime soon.

Anyways, I wish I am wrong and by 2023 I have options for a cheap EV truck🙂!

The second hand market for all these EV trucks and SUVs is going to very interesting to see. Whether or not prices plummet like electric cars do or if they hold value better.

 

[Mr. Gee]

I really can't see an international company building a full size EV truck to enter the US market anytime soon.

Perhaps not, but the three top selling vehicles in the US were pickup trucks last year, by a wide margin. The top three sold about 2 million units, #4, an SUV sold around 400K+. It's a very popular style.

 

[SANZCO2]

The second hand market for all these EV trucks and SUVs is going to very interesting to see. Whether or not prices plummet like electric cars do or if they hold value better.

Curious how you define plummet above. Based on Carfax, ICE vehicles loose about 20% first year and 15% a year after so a 5 year old car is worth around 40% of what you paid for it. Looking at some prices of a 5 year old Tesla Model S, they appear to be holding between 50% to 55% of the Value when new so actually seem to have a higher resale value than a comparable ICE vehicle.

 

[Wildabeest]

Looking at some prices of a 5 year old Tesla Model S, they appear to be holding between 50% to 55% of the Value when new so actually seem to have a higher resale value than a comparable ICE vehicle.

Not sure where you’re getting your information, but I just ran my 2015 Tesla S with 60,000 miles thru KBB. In “very good” condition and it came back with resale value in the low $30k range. Sticker was $102k before tax credit. So that’s closer to 30% of original sticker 5-1/2 hrs after delivery. Quote from Carvana was just under $30k.